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Met Office promises new tools to better understand global warming Met Office promises new tools to better understand global warming
(5 days later)
Better predictions of how extreme weather events will be affected by climate change and improvements in models to help understand more local impacts are set to improve understanding of global warming in the future, according to the UK's Met Office.Better predictions of how extreme weather events will be affected by climate change and improvements in models to help understand more local impacts are set to improve understanding of global warming in the future, according to the UK's Met Office.
The conclusions are part of a public briefing document prepared by scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre, in advance of the release of a landmark report from the UN's climate science panel due later this month.The conclusions are part of a public briefing document prepared by scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre, in advance of the release of a landmark report from the UN's climate science panel due later this month.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report (AR5) will lay down the current state of the science and the potential impacts of a warming world by collating climate simulations and data sets from multiple research institutes around the world, including the Hadley Centre, to provide the most comprehensive update on the state of climate science since the IPCC's last report in 2007.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report (AR5) will lay down the current state of the science and the potential impacts of a warming world by collating climate simulations and data sets from multiple research institutes around the world, including the Hadley Centre, to provide the most comprehensive update on the state of climate science since the IPCC's last report in 2007.
The eight-page Met Office briefing sums up the techniques used to build climate models and lists what it calls the "key issues" in climate science, areas where there have been significant updates in the science since 2007 and where the Met Office's ongoing work will be relevant in answering questions. These include how extreme weather events will be influenced by climate change and exactly how to improve future climate models to provide more accurate predictions of temperatures and sea level rise later in the century. This, said the Met Office scientists, will be done largely by finding ways to incorporate their more sophisticated understanding of the effects of changes in vegetation and the melting of permafrost and ice sheets.The eight-page Met Office briefing sums up the techniques used to build climate models and lists what it calls the "key issues" in climate science, areas where there have been significant updates in the science since 2007 and where the Met Office's ongoing work will be relevant in answering questions. These include how extreme weather events will be influenced by climate change and exactly how to improve future climate models to provide more accurate predictions of temperatures and sea level rise later in the century. This, said the Met Office scientists, will be done largely by finding ways to incorporate their more sophisticated understanding of the effects of changes in vegetation and the melting of permafrost and ice sheets.
"Global temperatures are expected to rise in the future, although the rate of warming will not be continuous as natural variability is superimposed upon long term changes," scientists write in the Met Office briefing. "The amount of warming will also depend on emissions of greenhouse gases, changes in land use, and other factors – such as emissions of aerosols, which can have temporary cooling effects.""Global temperatures are expected to rise in the future, although the rate of warming will not be continuous as natural variability is superimposed upon long term changes," scientists write in the Met Office briefing. "The amount of warming will also depend on emissions of greenhouse gases, changes in land use, and other factors – such as emissions of aerosols, which can have temporary cooling effects."
The briefing tackles contentious topics such as the recent slowdown in warming, where temperatures have been almost static in the past five years. It explains how this halt in rising temperatures is a temporary phenomenon, likely due to the slow warming of the deep oceans, which are a major heat absorber in the Earth's climate system. That process goes on over long periods of time, as heat from the surface is slowly circulated to the depths.The briefing tackles contentious topics such as the recent slowdown in warming, where temperatures have been almost static in the past five years. It explains how this halt in rising temperatures is a temporary phenomenon, likely due to the slow warming of the deep oceans, which are a major heat absorber in the Earth's climate system. That process goes on over long periods of time, as heat from the surface is slowly circulated to the depths.
Despite the slowdown, the decade from 2000-09 has been the warmest on record, according to the Met Office.Despite the slowdown, the decade from 2000-09 has been the warmest on record, according to the Met Office.
"There have been previous periods of little or no warming in the observational record, and climate model projections also show such periods. These have a variety of causes. The recent slowdown could be due to long-term ocean cycles, which alter the way the oceans take up and store heat, and changes in the radiative forcing (ie energy coming in and going out) of the planet," said the Met Office briefing."There have been previous periods of little or no warming in the observational record, and climate model projections also show such periods. These have a variety of causes. The recent slowdown could be due to long-term ocean cycles, which alter the way the oceans take up and store heat, and changes in the radiative forcing (ie energy coming in and going out) of the planet," said the Met Office briefing.
"Research is ongoing to understand these changes. Based on our current understanding, we expect warming to resume in line with projections for the current and increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations.""Research is ongoing to understand these changes. Based on our current understanding, we expect warming to resume in line with projections for the current and increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations."
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