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A Labour win is still on – if alienated Tories and Lib Dems play ball A Labour win is still on – if alienated Tories and Lib Dems play ball
(5 days later)
Here we go: the political season opens with the Liberal Democrats in Glasgow. And what a dismal season it looks set to be. Political reasons to be cheerful are thin on the ground, wherever you stand. How odd that all three main parties have very good reasons to be glum.Here we go: the political season opens with the Liberal Democrats in Glasgow. And what a dismal season it looks set to be. Political reasons to be cheerful are thin on the ground, wherever you stand. How odd that all three main parties have very good reasons to be glum.
To be sure, the Tories will be chipper as economic good news at long last breaks through the frozen tundra of the past three years. David Cameron's personal ratings are so much higher than Ed Miliband's that he can strut and crow, despite the debacle of recalling parliament so his own side could humiliate him over Syria. Bouncing with good headlines on growth and jobs, no doubt they will put on a jolly good show in Manchester.To be sure, the Tories will be chipper as economic good news at long last breaks through the frozen tundra of the past three years. David Cameron's personal ratings are so much higher than Ed Miliband's that he can strut and crow, despite the debacle of recalling parliament so his own side could humiliate him over Syria. Bouncing with good headlines on growth and jobs, no doubt they will put on a jolly good show in Manchester.
But beneath the surface the old hands watch the deadly electoral arithmetic. Campaign for Conservative Democracy reports only 133,000 Tory members, with an average age of 68. No government in decades has increased its vote while in power, not even Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair, let alone Cameron who couldn't score a knockout win over Gordon Brown. His awkward party doesn't much like its leader, as it agonises over Ukip, Europe and a score of griefs. Growth may warm the cockles of Cameron's southern heartlands, yet never radiate out to middle earners, let alone to those below. With deeper public cuts to come, a southern glow won't unfreeze great areas of the north, Midlands or other hard-hit zones. Will people vote on phantom wealth they see in headlines, or on the lack of actual money in their pockets?But beneath the surface the old hands watch the deadly electoral arithmetic. Campaign for Conservative Democracy reports only 133,000 Tory members, with an average age of 68. No government in decades has increased its vote while in power, not even Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair, let alone Cameron who couldn't score a knockout win over Gordon Brown. His awkward party doesn't much like its leader, as it agonises over Ukip, Europe and a score of griefs. Growth may warm the cockles of Cameron's southern heartlands, yet never radiate out to middle earners, let alone to those below. With deeper public cuts to come, a southern glow won't unfreeze great areas of the north, Midlands or other hard-hit zones. Will people vote on phantom wealth they see in headlines, or on the lack of actual money in their pockets?
The Lib Dems meet at just 10% in the polls, behind Ukip. In theory they face near extinction, back to fitting their MPs into a people-carrier. In practice, as Martin Kettle wrote in the Guardian on Thursday, their Eastleigh result shows they hang on like barnacles. They meet as a deeply riven party whose activists tend to be radicals, led by Orange Book austerians. The Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Laws and Jeremy Browne battalion takes them too often through the wrong lobby: only this week they voted obediently for the lobbying bill, while Vince Cable put Royal Mail up for sale.The Lib Dems meet at just 10% in the polls, behind Ukip. In theory they face near extinction, back to fitting their MPs into a people-carrier. In practice, as Martin Kettle wrote in the Guardian on Thursday, their Eastleigh result shows they hang on like barnacles. They meet as a deeply riven party whose activists tend to be radicals, led by Orange Book austerians. The Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Laws and Jeremy Browne battalion takes them too often through the wrong lobby: only this week they voted obediently for the lobbying bill, while Vince Cable put Royal Mail up for sale.
To sample the Lib Dem rift, compare what Browne and their president, Tim Farron, said about Labour to the New Statesman. Farron lavished praise on Miliband – "I like Ed", his kind of guy – while Browne said coalition with Labour would be "far harder" than with the Tories, not "some easy, liberal utopia. There would be a much bigger gap."To sample the Lib Dem rift, compare what Browne and their president, Tim Farron, said about Labour to the New Statesman. Farron lavished praise on Miliband – "I like Ed", his kind of guy – while Browne said coalition with Labour would be "far harder" than with the Tories, not "some easy, liberal utopia. There would be a much bigger gap."
A hung parliament led by Labour is a not implausible result, but Lib Dem leaders make no preparation for it, still prefacing every interview with "the mess Labour left". Cable was at it again on the Today programme this week: "It took years of mistakes by the previous government to get us into this crisis." As with George Osborne, there is no record of him telling Labour to make cuts in the good years.A hung parliament led by Labour is a not implausible result, but Lib Dem leaders make no preparation for it, still prefacing every interview with "the mess Labour left". Cable was at it again on the Today programme this week: "It took years of mistakes by the previous government to get us into this crisis." As with George Osborne, there is no record of him telling Labour to make cuts in the good years.
Sticking to the Labour-to-blame Tory story is a serious tactical error as Lib Dems have lost a third of their voters to Labour, and this is no way to win them back. They look set to lose the third of their seats where Labour is the challenger. What's more, to hold the other two-thirds that are Tory-facing, they need Labour voters to keep voting tactically for Lib Dem incumbents. Will they? Not if Nick Clegg and his team keep spitting anti-Labour bile. Farron's softly, softly is surely the right strategy – and it better reflects the sentiments of their party, as we shall see in Glasgow.Sticking to the Labour-to-blame Tory story is a serious tactical error as Lib Dems have lost a third of their voters to Labour, and this is no way to win them back. They look set to lose the third of their seats where Labour is the challenger. What's more, to hold the other two-thirds that are Tory-facing, they need Labour voters to keep voting tactically for Lib Dem incumbents. Will they? Not if Nick Clegg and his team keep spitting anti-Labour bile. Farron's softly, softly is surely the right strategy – and it better reflects the sentiments of their party, as we shall see in Glasgow.
Finally, what of Labour? Still seven points ahead in daily YouGov polls, the numbers point to a solid majority. But look into the eyes of Labour MPs, and that's not how it feels to them. Can you win when your leader lags so alarmingly far behind the party? Thatcher did, with Jim Callaghan miles ahead in 1979. Unpopular Ted Heath beat better-liked Harold Wilson, but all that sounds like whistling in the dark.Finally, what of Labour? Still seven points ahead in daily YouGov polls, the numbers point to a solid majority. But look into the eyes of Labour MPs, and that's not how it feels to them. Can you win when your leader lags so alarmingly far behind the party? Thatcher did, with Jim Callaghan miles ahead in 1979. Unpopular Ted Heath beat better-liked Harold Wilson, but all that sounds like whistling in the dark.
At a seminar this week held by the Political Studies Association – electoral number-crunchers of the kind who monitor Plaid Cymru's council results – Professor John Curtice gave Labour a dark warning: history showed a party can't win without soaring ahead in the years before an election, and Labour's lead is far too feeble. But history also shows sitting PMs can't increase their vote – so either way, history is bunk. As these experts said, we are in uncharted waters. The game has changed.At a seminar this week held by the Political Studies Association – electoral number-crunchers of the kind who monitor Plaid Cymru's council results – Professor John Curtice gave Labour a dark warning: history showed a party can't win without soaring ahead in the years before an election, and Labour's lead is far too feeble. But history also shows sitting PMs can't increase their vote – so either way, history is bunk. As these experts said, we are in uncharted waters. The game has changed.
Labour will win, they agreed, if they can hold the Lib Dem voters who fled to them when the tuition fee pledge was broken: those voters show no sign of returning to Clegg, the most despised of all leaders. Labour will win if Ukip keeps hold of 5%-6% of the Tory voters it has stolen: pollsters say those Ukippers seem too alienated to go back. Numerically the odds remain strong that Labour will pull off the remarkable feat of making Cameron a one-term prime minister.Labour will win, they agreed, if they can hold the Lib Dem voters who fled to them when the tuition fee pledge was broken: those voters show no sign of returning to Clegg, the most despised of all leaders. Labour will win if Ukip keeps hold of 5%-6% of the Tory voters it has stolen: pollsters say those Ukippers seem too alienated to go back. Numerically the odds remain strong that Labour will pull off the remarkable feat of making Cameron a one-term prime minister.
Yet Labour's spirits are low. Even the exceptional achievement of a UK opposition leader halting the US bombing of Syria has somehow redounded to Cameron's favour. How adroitly Cameron's team turns dross to gold now the heft of the Tory press is back in pre-election lockstep, and the nervous BBC is cowed.Yet Labour's spirits are low. Even the exceptional achievement of a UK opposition leader halting the US bombing of Syria has somehow redounded to Cameron's favour. How adroitly Cameron's team turns dross to gold now the heft of the Tory press is back in pre-election lockstep, and the nervous BBC is cowed.
A Labour win keeps the Tories out. But the prospect of an unpopular Labour leader governing by the fluke of a vastly greater conservative force split between Tories, Ukip and Cleggite Lib Dems is not heart-warming. Nor is it yet clear that Labour knows what it would do in power. Miliband needs to tell us soon. He has plentiful good policies – guaranteed jobs for the young, new homes, a mansion tax, a bank bonus tax, an end to zero hours, repeal of the NHS Act, capped rail and energy prices and more. But it's piecemeal with no strong image yet in the public mind: Miliband is not disliked, but he remains unknown.A Labour win keeps the Tories out. But the prospect of an unpopular Labour leader governing by the fluke of a vastly greater conservative force split between Tories, Ukip and Cleggite Lib Dems is not heart-warming. Nor is it yet clear that Labour knows what it would do in power. Miliband needs to tell us soon. He has plentiful good policies – guaranteed jobs for the young, new homes, a mansion tax, a bank bonus tax, an end to zero hours, repeal of the NHS Act, capped rail and energy prices and more. But it's piecemeal with no strong image yet in the public mind: Miliband is not disliked, but he remains unknown.
A good conference speech won't be enough: he made a brilliant one last year, but without a phalanx of his team hammering out bold messages to back him up it dropped into nowhere. Why are Labour frontbenchers too frit to say anything interesting? Labour has its irritatingly divisive characters arguing over tactics and Blair's legacy, but that's a trifling ideological split compared with Tory and Lib Dem rifts.A good conference speech won't be enough: he made a brilliant one last year, but without a phalanx of his team hammering out bold messages to back him up it dropped into nowhere. Why are Labour frontbenchers too frit to say anything interesting? Labour has its irritatingly divisive characters arguing over tactics and Blair's legacy, but that's a trifling ideological split compared with Tory and Lib Dem rifts.
As Osborne's growth pours into southern estate agents' pockets, pleasing the already well-heeled, Labour has a strong mission: to see it reaches everyone. Whose growth? That's the 2015 question, for an election that's Labour's to win – but the time is short.As Osborne's growth pours into southern estate agents' pockets, pleasing the already well-heeled, Labour has a strong mission: to see it reaches everyone. Whose growth? That's the 2015 question, for an election that's Labour's to win – but the time is short.
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