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Liberal Democrat conference 2013: Nick Clegg can tell his party to hold their nerve Liberal Democrat conference 2013: Nick Clegg can tell his party to hold their nerve
(6 days later)
Coalition politics is not for the faint-hearted. Nor is leadership, as Nick Clegg will tell you. As he contemplates his fourth party conference as deputy PM, his thoughts, and his leader's speech, need to be turning to the general election, now less than two years away. He can do so with more confidence than 12 months ago. Last year's atrial flutterings over his leadership have died away. His policy of differentiation between the Liberal Democrats and their Tory partners has become overt and even reciprocated. Sarah Teather's carefully timed disloyalty does not help, but as Clegg contemplates Glasgow he can afford some schadenfreude from what lies in front of David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Both the other two party leaders go to meet their faithful with bruising to show from the past few weeks.Coalition politics is not for the faint-hearted. Nor is leadership, as Nick Clegg will tell you. As he contemplates his fourth party conference as deputy PM, his thoughts, and his leader's speech, need to be turning to the general election, now less than two years away. He can do so with more confidence than 12 months ago. Last year's atrial flutterings over his leadership have died away. His policy of differentiation between the Liberal Democrats and their Tory partners has become overt and even reciprocated. Sarah Teather's carefully timed disloyalty does not help, but as Clegg contemplates Glasgow he can afford some schadenfreude from what lies in front of David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Both the other two party leaders go to meet their faithful with bruising to show from the past few weeks.
The prime minister, who was driven to concede a referendum on Europe to his recalcitrant backbenchers a few months ago has had, in the last fortnight, to endure the humiliation of a nominal government defeat but, in truth, a personal one on the issue of military action against the Assad regime, an issue which he had made his own. Am I the only one to see a curious symmetry between the anti-Europeans and the new peaceniks of the Tory right?The prime minister, who was driven to concede a referendum on Europe to his recalcitrant backbenchers a few months ago has had, in the last fortnight, to endure the humiliation of a nominal government defeat but, in truth, a personal one on the issue of military action against the Assad regime, an issue which he had made his own. Am I the only one to see a curious symmetry between the anti-Europeans and the new peaceniks of the Tory right?
And what of Miliband? The Labour leader's August has been a wicked month. One by one Blairites and foot soldiers alike have queued up to question his ability to win. To cap it all, in his attempt to show his independence from the trade unions he has picked a fight with the money men who keep Labour afloat.And what of Miliband? The Labour leader's August has been a wicked month. One by one Blairites and foot soldiers alike have queued up to question his ability to win. To cap it all, in his attempt to show his independence from the trade unions he has picked a fight with the money men who keep Labour afloat.
Against that background, Clegg and his party can feel more positive even while the party's ratings in the opinion polls stagnate. There are things by which to be comforted. Unsuccessful attempts to bring about constitutional change have faded into history, local government byelection results have held up and economic indicators are improving, albeit haltingly. And, as Martin Kettle pointed out yesterday, there is always Eastleigh as a demonstration of what can be done.Against that background, Clegg and his party can feel more positive even while the party's ratings in the opinion polls stagnate. There are things by which to be comforted. Unsuccessful attempts to bring about constitutional change have faded into history, local government byelection results have held up and economic indicators are improving, albeit haltingly. And, as Martin Kettle pointed out yesterday, there is always Eastleigh as a demonstration of what can be done.
Despite these apparent advantages it may not be an easy conference for the LibDem leadership, since this may be the last chance for activists to leave their mark on the party manifesto for 2015. But Clegg holds at least one ace. These are the same activists who, when asked to endorse the five-year programme of the coalition in the heady days of the rose garden, did so by an overwhelming majority. No one ever said it was going to be easy.Despite these apparent advantages it may not be an easy conference for the LibDem leadership, since this may be the last chance for activists to leave their mark on the party manifesto for 2015. But Clegg holds at least one ace. These are the same activists who, when asked to endorse the five-year programme of the coalition in the heady days of the rose garden, did so by an overwhelming majority. No one ever said it was going to be easy.
After the extent of Paddy Ashdown's dalliance with Tony Blair in 1997 was revealed, the party adopted the so-called triple-lock. Any arrangement between the LibDems and any other party has to be endorsed by its MPs, the party's executive and also a special conference of members. At the time, this was thought to be a brake on the leader's freedom to manoeuvre. But now its very existence works in Clegg's favour. For all the MPs, members of the executive and activists voted overwhelmingly for the coalition in 2010. By unlocking Clegg they locked themselves in. Too shrewd to say he told them so, Clegg's subtext will be self-evident. You signed up to the coalition in the national interest because of the economic crisis. At last, albeit slowly, we seem to be on the way to resolving that crisis, just hold your nerve. (And by the way Dr Cable, don't be quite so gloomy!) Those who challenge the glimmerings of economic recovery will be directed to unexpected corroboration from Messrs Ed Balls and Miliband, who have accepted that there is growth in the economy and that a Labour government would not reverse many of the welfare reforms that it has slavishly opposed in opposition. Attacks on Liberal Democrats have diminished in recent weeks as Labour has faced up to the reality that a welfare budget that exceeds expenditure on health, education and defence cannot be immune when the objective is to restore economic stability.After the extent of Paddy Ashdown's dalliance with Tony Blair in 1997 was revealed, the party adopted the so-called triple-lock. Any arrangement between the LibDems and any other party has to be endorsed by its MPs, the party's executive and also a special conference of members. At the time, this was thought to be a brake on the leader's freedom to manoeuvre. But now its very existence works in Clegg's favour. For all the MPs, members of the executive and activists voted overwhelmingly for the coalition in 2010. By unlocking Clegg they locked themselves in. Too shrewd to say he told them so, Clegg's subtext will be self-evident. You signed up to the coalition in the national interest because of the economic crisis. At last, albeit slowly, we seem to be on the way to resolving that crisis, just hold your nerve. (And by the way Dr Cable, don't be quite so gloomy!) Those who challenge the glimmerings of economic recovery will be directed to unexpected corroboration from Messrs Ed Balls and Miliband, who have accepted that there is growth in the economy and that a Labour government would not reverse many of the welfare reforms that it has slavishly opposed in opposition. Attacks on Liberal Democrats have diminished in recent weeks as Labour has faced up to the reality that a welfare budget that exceeds expenditure on health, education and defence cannot be immune when the objective is to restore economic stability.
Those who are close to Clegg believe that one of his persistent anxieties is what he perceives to be a drift towards isolationism. That drift may be overstated, but the party of Europe seems less European than it was even in the recent past. And Clegg made no attempt to conceal his disappointment that so many of his MPs declined to support a government motion on Syria that asserted the primacy of the UN and promised a future vote before military action.Those who are close to Clegg believe that one of his persistent anxieties is what he perceives to be a drift towards isolationism. That drift may be overstated, but the party of Europe seems less European than it was even in the recent past. And Clegg made no attempt to conceal his disappointment that so many of his MPs declined to support a government motion on Syria that asserted the primacy of the UN and promised a future vote before military action.
Beyond the economy, Clegg will point to the raising of the tax threshold to benefit the poorest taxpayers, the pupil premium for the children of less affluent families, increased childcare provision, spirited resistance to the communications data bill, continuing support for a reformed European arrest warrant and other policy achievements that could not have been achieved from the benches of opposition. His closing speech next Wednesday will not herald a general election, but it may seem like it.Beyond the economy, Clegg will point to the raising of the tax threshold to benefit the poorest taxpayers, the pupil premium for the children of less affluent families, increased childcare provision, spirited resistance to the communications data bill, continuing support for a reformed European arrest warrant and other policy achievements that could not have been achieved from the benches of opposition. His closing speech next Wednesday will not herald a general election, but it may seem like it.
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