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| Polish ruling coalition's majority drops to one, after third MP quits | Polish ruling coalition's majority drops to one, after third MP quits |
| (6 days later) | |
| Poland's ruling coalition has lost its third MP in as many weeks, raising the possibility that it could lose its parliamentary majority and force elections. | Poland's ruling coalition has lost its third MP in as many weeks, raising the possibility that it could lose its parliamentary majority and force elections. |
| Jacek Zalek quit the ruling centre-right Civic Platform party on Thursday, following in the footsteps of John Godson, Poland's first black MP, and former justice minister Jarosław Gowin. | Jacek Zalek quit the ruling centre-right Civic Platform party on Thursday, following in the footsteps of John Godson, Poland's first black MP, and former justice minister Jarosław Gowin. |
| All three accused Civic Platform of veering to the left on social and economic issues, and warned that other conservative-minded MPs could soon follow suit. | All three accused Civic Platform of veering to the left on social and economic issues, and warned that other conservative-minded MPs could soon follow suit. |
| The defections leave the coalition with 232 votes – just one more than the minimum needed to have a majority in the 460-member lower house of parliament | The defections leave the coalition with 232 votes – just one more than the minimum needed to have a majority in the 460-member lower house of parliament |
| The prime minister, Donald Tusk, said this week that if he did lose his majority, "the alternative would be snap elections", dismissing the idea of a minority government. | The prime minister, Donald Tusk, said this week that if he did lose his majority, "the alternative would be snap elections", dismissing the idea of a minority government. |
| If elections were held today they would not be won by Tusk's moderate party but most probably by the rightwing Law and Justice party. | If elections were held today they would not be won by Tusk's moderate party but most probably by the rightwing Law and Justice party. |
| A voter survey this month had Law and Justice with 30% support, followed by Civic Platform with 25%. | A voter survey this month had Law and Justice with 30% support, followed by Civic Platform with 25%. |
| Law and Justice and its mercurial leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, have promised radical change if elected. At the party's convention this summer, Kaczyński vowed to "re-Polonise banks in Poland", around 72% of which are currently in foreign hands. He also wants punitive taxes for employers who underpay their workers.The opposition leader has called Poland a "Russian-German condominium" and constantly accuses Tusk of appeasing the country's neighbours, especially Germany, which Kaczyński says is "trying to rebuild its empire" under Angela Merkel. | Law and Justice and its mercurial leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, have promised radical change if elected. At the party's convention this summer, Kaczyński vowed to "re-Polonise banks in Poland", around 72% of which are currently in foreign hands. He also wants punitive taxes for employers who underpay their workers.The opposition leader has called Poland a "Russian-German condominium" and constantly accuses Tusk of appeasing the country's neighbours, especially Germany, which Kaczyński says is "trying to rebuild its empire" under Angela Merkel. |
| Kaczyński's aversion to Russia goes beyond politics. He is the twin brother of the late Polish president Lech Kaczyński, who perished in the 2010 plane crash in Smolensk, Russia, along with 95 others. | Kaczyński's aversion to Russia goes beyond politics. He is the twin brother of the late Polish president Lech Kaczyński, who perished in the 2010 plane crash in Smolensk, Russia, along with 95 others. |
| Kaczyński has suggested his brother may have been assassinated by the Kremlin in collusion with Tusk's government, and vows to get to the bottom of the matter when in power. | Kaczyński has suggested his brother may have been assassinated by the Kremlin in collusion with Tusk's government, and vows to get to the bottom of the matter when in power. |
| The Law and Justice leader's political role model is the Hungarian nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Kaczyński says he is "deeply convinced that there will come a day when we have a Budapest in Warsaw". | The Law and Justice leader's political role model is the Hungarian nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Kaczyński says he is "deeply convinced that there will come a day when we have a Budapest in Warsaw". |
| But Tusk still has some cards to play. He could reach for a third coalition partner in the shape of the Democratic Left Alliance, a post-communist formation. The coalition would be difficult for him to explain to his centre-right voters, but might be a better political option than snap elections. | But Tusk still has some cards to play. He could reach for a third coalition partner in the shape of the Democratic Left Alliance, a post-communist formation. The coalition would be difficult for him to explain to his centre-right voters, but might be a better political option than snap elections. |
| Alternatively, he could co-opt the leftist-liberal Palikot's Movement, led by an erratic and bellicose politician, Janusz Palikot. But Palikot would be a problematic coalition partner. | Alternatively, he could co-opt the leftist-liberal Palikot's Movement, led by an erratic and bellicose politician, Janusz Palikot. But Palikot would be a problematic coalition partner. |
| Tusk's third option is simply to buy over a few disgruntled MPs from other parties. In recent months four MPs have deserted Palikot's Movement to form their own parliamentary mini-caucus. They generally vote with the government and could be co-opted fully into Civic Platform to boost its ranks. | Tusk's third option is simply to buy over a few disgruntled MPs from other parties. In recent months four MPs have deserted Palikot's Movement to form their own parliamentary mini-caucus. They generally vote with the government and could be co-opted fully into Civic Platform to boost its ranks. |
| Tusk will probably not make any radical moves as long as he still has a majority. But if more MPs quit his party he will have no choice but to search for a second coalition partner or face elections and the possible handover of power to Kaczyński. | Tusk will probably not make any radical moves as long as he still has a majority. But if more MPs quit his party he will have no choice but to search for a second coalition partner or face elections and the possible handover of power to Kaczyński. |
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