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The great Liberal Democrat wipeout? I have a hunch it won't happen The great Liberal Democrat wipeout? I have a hunch it won't happen
(6 days later)
Should one trust a political commentator's hunch? Andrew Marr said the other day that he had a hunch that the Scottish referendum a year from now would be a close run thing. Lots of worldly-wise observers tend to agree. Yet the consistent lead for a no to independence in the Scottish opinion polls mocks this view. There is no evidence to support Marr. Against that, though, there is the hunch.Should one trust a political commentator's hunch? Andrew Marr said the other day that he had a hunch that the Scottish referendum a year from now would be a close run thing. Lots of worldly-wise observers tend to agree. Yet the consistent lead for a no to independence in the Scottish opinion polls mocks this view. There is no evidence to support Marr. Against that, though, there is the hunch.
From time to time, I also give voice to a hunch. Mine is that the next general election could very possibly produce another hung parliament. Here again quite a lot of political lags seem to agree. Yet on what basis of fact? Day after day the opinion polls give no support to such an outcome at all. The rolling average of the polls is that Labour will win comfortably in 2015 – a majority of 76, they say this week. Yet I continue to trust my hunch.From time to time, I also give voice to a hunch. Mine is that the next general election could very possibly produce another hung parliament. Here again quite a lot of political lags seem to agree. Yet on what basis of fact? Day after day the opinion polls give no support to such an outcome at all. The rolling average of the polls is that Labour will win comfortably in 2015 – a majority of 76, they say this week. Yet I continue to trust my hunch.
No party in British politics clings more firmly to its collective hunches than the Liberal Democrats. As the Lib Dems prepare for their conference in Glasgow this weekend, the polls are as bad for the party as they have ever been. On Tuesday YouGov put the Lib Dems on 9% – down from 23% in the 2010 election. The rolling average of all polls gives them 11%, and has been there or thereabouts for nearly three years. With a year and a half to go before the next general election, the signpost pointing towards electoral disaster could hardly be any clearer. When they get to the banks of the Clyde on Saturday, the logical thing for the Lib Dems to do would be to jump in.No party in British politics clings more firmly to its collective hunches than the Liberal Democrats. As the Lib Dems prepare for their conference in Glasgow this weekend, the polls are as bad for the party as they have ever been. On Tuesday YouGov put the Lib Dems on 9% – down from 23% in the 2010 election. The rolling average of all polls gives them 11%, and has been there or thereabouts for nearly three years. With a year and a half to go before the next general election, the signpost pointing towards electoral disaster could hardly be any clearer. When they get to the banks of the Clyde on Saturday, the logical thing for the Lib Dems to do would be to jump in.
Yet the party mood in the runup to Glasgow remains strikingly resilient. I have talked to a lot of Lib Dems this week, and I have not found a single one – from senior figures down to the grassroots – who believes that the party is marching towards a wipeout. On the contrary, most Lib Dem people are in guardedly good spirits about the future. Their hunch is that the worst is over, and that in 2015 they will hold on to most of their 2010 tally of 57 MPs – and perhaps even gain some.Yet the party mood in the runup to Glasgow remains strikingly resilient. I have talked to a lot of Lib Dems this week, and I have not found a single one – from senior figures down to the grassroots – who believes that the party is marching towards a wipeout. On the contrary, most Lib Dem people are in guardedly good spirits about the future. Their hunch is that the worst is over, and that in 2015 they will hold on to most of their 2010 tally of 57 MPs – and perhaps even gain some.
On the face of it, this is nothing short of delusional. If the party remains at around 10% in the polls, the chances are that the Lib Dems will lose upwards of 45 seats. Even if they managed to recover to 15% nationally – and there is absolutely no sign of that – they could still be looking at losing about 30 seats. Either result would leave them a humiliated rump with minimal leverage, even in a hung parliament. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats' local government base – built up so assiduously over so many long years – continues to haemorrhage councillors.On the face of it, this is nothing short of delusional. If the party remains at around 10% in the polls, the chances are that the Lib Dems will lose upwards of 45 seats. Even if they managed to recover to 15% nationally – and there is absolutely no sign of that – they could still be looking at losing about 30 seats. Either result would leave them a humiliated rump with minimal leverage, even in a hung parliament. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats' local government base – built up so assiduously over so many long years – continues to haemorrhage councillors.
Several things help to explain this almost perverse refusal to panic. The first is that the party as a whole still owns the situation in which it finds itself. The party voted for the coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. They believe, almost to a man and woman, that they must therefore make the best of it without recrimination. Even Sarah Teather, though deciding to walk away in 2015, is not putting herself at the head of a revolt.Several things help to explain this almost perverse refusal to panic. The first is that the party as a whole still owns the situation in which it finds itself. The party voted for the coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. They believe, almost to a man and woman, that they must therefore make the best of it without recrimination. Even Sarah Teather, though deciding to walk away in 2015, is not putting herself at the head of a revolt.
A second explanation can be given in a single word: Eastleigh. Mike Thornton's victory six months ago in the byelection caused by Chris Huhne's resignation gave the whole party a confidence transfusion. It was interpreted as bankable proof of the claim that Lib Dem activists have long made – that the party can defend its fortresses in spite of horrible national poll ratings. No Lib Dem fails to mention Eastleigh when you ask about the party's chances. It is hardly an exaggeration to say that the Lib Dems' strategy for 2015 is to fight 57 Eastleighs.A second explanation can be given in a single word: Eastleigh. Mike Thornton's victory six months ago in the byelection caused by Chris Huhne's resignation gave the whole party a confidence transfusion. It was interpreted as bankable proof of the claim that Lib Dem activists have long made – that the party can defend its fortresses in spite of horrible national poll ratings. No Lib Dem fails to mention Eastleigh when you ask about the party's chances. It is hardly an exaggeration to say that the Lib Dems' strategy for 2015 is to fight 57 Eastleighs.
Eastleigh partly explains why the party's internal mood has steadied in the past 12 months. It is easily forgotten that, a year ago, a Liberal Democrat Voice survey found half of its respondents wanting Nick Clegg to quit before the election. Support for Vince Cable as an alternative leader appeared strong. Today, that mood seems to have ebbed. If Eastleigh had been lost, that would not be the case.Eastleigh partly explains why the party's internal mood has steadied in the past 12 months. It is easily forgotten that, a year ago, a Liberal Democrat Voice survey found half of its respondents wanting Nick Clegg to quit before the election. Support for Vince Cable as an alternative leader appeared strong. Today, that mood seems to have ebbed. If Eastleigh had been lost, that would not be the case.
Clegg's ratings among the general public remain dire – he has a net negative rating of minus 53 among the electorate as a whole, compared with minus 58 a year ago. Significant proportions of his party's activist base remain very critical of him – Teather undoubtedly speaks for many – but internal surveys suggest that support for Clegg has stabilised since a bad dip a year ago. Even strong Cable supporters accept that there isn't much of a leadership issue this year. The thought that Clegg would not lead the party into the 2015 election, quite common 12 months ago, now looks fanciful. There seems a bit more grudging respect out there.Clegg's ratings among the general public remain dire – he has a net negative rating of minus 53 among the electorate as a whole, compared with minus 58 a year ago. Significant proportions of his party's activist base remain very critical of him – Teather undoubtedly speaks for many – but internal surveys suggest that support for Clegg has stabilised since a bad dip a year ago. Even strong Cable supporters accept that there isn't much of a leadership issue this year. The thought that Clegg would not lead the party into the 2015 election, quite common 12 months ago, now looks fanciful. There seems a bit more grudging respect out there.
If so, it is not down to Eastleigh. It also reflects a more pragmatic sense of comfort with the way the coalition is now conducted and perceived. Most Lib Dem members are temperamentally uncomfortable with being in coalition with the Conservatives. They remain closer to Labour in terms of general values. But the much clearer differentiation between the two coalition parties over the past year – particularly since the collapse of Lords reform and boundary changes – is a more comfortable coat to wear. Cable's speech on Wednesday, in which he sharply cautioned against George Osborne's economic recovery triumphalism, embodies the point.If so, it is not down to Eastleigh. It also reflects a more pragmatic sense of comfort with the way the coalition is now conducted and perceived. Most Lib Dem members are temperamentally uncomfortable with being in coalition with the Conservatives. They remain closer to Labour in terms of general values. But the much clearer differentiation between the two coalition parties over the past year – particularly since the collapse of Lords reform and boundary changes – is a more comfortable coat to wear. Cable's speech on Wednesday, in which he sharply cautioned against George Osborne's economic recovery triumphalism, embodies the point.
Any Liberal Democrat party conference is inherently more rewarding as an expression of party mood than any Tory or Labour conference – for the simple reason that the Lib Dems still allow proper debates about causes. Glasgow will be no exception. There will be serious arguments over Trident, the 50p income tax band and nuclear power. But this is a party that likes being in government, believes it has made the coalition work, and is convinced it has some signature achievements to be proud of. The Lib Dems' hunch is that the electorate is more open to giving them a hearing than it was a year ago. And that's my hunch too, whatever the polls say.Any Liberal Democrat party conference is inherently more rewarding as an expression of party mood than any Tory or Labour conference – for the simple reason that the Lib Dems still allow proper debates about causes. Glasgow will be no exception. There will be serious arguments over Trident, the 50p income tax band and nuclear power. But this is a party that likes being in government, believes it has made the coalition work, and is convinced it has some signature achievements to be proud of. The Lib Dems' hunch is that the electorate is more open to giving them a hearing than it was a year ago. And that's my hunch too, whatever the polls say.
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