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| Bill Shorten seen as 'inevitable' Labor leader as party seeks post-election unity | Bill Shorten seen as 'inevitable' Labor leader as party seeks post-election unity |
| (6 days later) | |
| Leaders in politics are masters of the travelator. Bill Shorten possesses the politician's most valuable currency: an aura of inevitability. He's the man of perpetual forward motion, where every career milestone is recorded and analysed as a staging post to the next milestone. | Leaders in politics are masters of the travelator. Bill Shorten possesses the politician's most valuable currency: an aura of inevitability. He's the man of perpetual forward motion, where every career milestone is recorded and analysed as a staging post to the next milestone. |
| Shorten's leadership stocks were being talked up behind the scenes even before Saturday's election defeat. He was being portrayed by both Bill boosters and by less enthusiastic supporters as the person for the times. | Shorten's leadership stocks were being talked up behind the scenes even before Saturday's election defeat. He was being portrayed by both Bill boosters and by less enthusiastic supporters as the person for the times. |
| The positive case for Shorten in the eyes of his colleagues is this: the Victorian rightwinger is a pragmatist, a proficient political communicator, a coalition-builder and an assiduous networker with the potential to unite the party post-Rudd and post-Gillard. He's also a clear projection by the ALP of generational change. | The positive case for Shorten in the eyes of his colleagues is this: the Victorian rightwinger is a pragmatist, a proficient political communicator, a coalition-builder and an assiduous networker with the potential to unite the party post-Rudd and post-Gillard. He's also a clear projection by the ALP of generational change. |
| Fatalists have a more shaded assessment. Given Bill won't rest until he wears the crown, given "the inevitability of Bill" can't be avoided – then best to let events run their natural course. He will either flourish or fail, goes the most pragmatic internal rationale, and either scenario works for Labor in the long run. If it's to be success, then great – the party rebuilds and rebuilds quickly. If Shorten ultimately fails to live up to his mythology, then the party can move on. The thing about the political travelator is it keeps delivering alternatives. | Fatalists have a more shaded assessment. Given Bill won't rest until he wears the crown, given "the inevitability of Bill" can't be avoided – then best to let events run their natural course. He will either flourish or fail, goes the most pragmatic internal rationale, and either scenario works for Labor in the long run. If it's to be success, then great – the party rebuilds and rebuilds quickly. If Shorten ultimately fails to live up to his mythology, then the party can move on. The thing about the political travelator is it keeps delivering alternatives. |
| Shorten rose through the ranks of Victorian Labor as an activist in the 1980s before serving his pre-parliamentary apprenticeship in the trade union movement. He achieved national prominence while national secretary of the Australian Workers Union (AWU) during the mine collapse in Beaconsfield, Tasmania. | Shorten rose through the ranks of Victorian Labor as an activist in the 1980s before serving his pre-parliamentary apprenticeship in the trade union movement. He achieved national prominence while national secretary of the Australian Workers Union (AWU) during the mine collapse in Beaconsfield, Tasmania. |
| His institutional power base in Canberra is derived in part from his enduring kinship with the AWU (although the former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan was always the key AWU "man" in Canberra) and in part from the so-called "short-con" group in the Victorian right. (The delightfully named short-cons are a sub-factional group controlled by Shorten and fellow Victorian rightwinger Stephen Conroy.) | His institutional power base in Canberra is derived in part from his enduring kinship with the AWU (although the former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan was always the key AWU "man" in Canberra) and in part from the so-called "short-con" group in the Victorian right. (The delightfully named short-cons are a sub-factional group controlled by Shorten and fellow Victorian rightwinger Stephen Conroy.) |
| The short-con group fractured badly during the Rudd-Gillard civil war (Shorten and Conroy were on opposite sides of the fight, with Conroy a staunch Gillard loyalist), and over bitterly contested preselections in Melbourne. Given political leadership is ultimately a numbers game, this splintering in his power base could have been a significant setback for Shorten's immediate leadership aspirations. But the group has patched relations for this transaction at least. Whether the rapprochement is short-term or long-term remains to be seen. | The short-con group fractured badly during the Rudd-Gillard civil war (Shorten and Conroy were on opposite sides of the fight, with Conroy a staunch Gillard loyalist), and over bitterly contested preselections in Melbourne. Given political leadership is ultimately a numbers game, this splintering in his power base could have been a significant setback for Shorten's immediate leadership aspirations. But the group has patched relations for this transaction at least. Whether the rapprochement is short-term or long-term remains to be seen. |
| Institutional power structures still matter in how leadership battles in Labor are ultimately transacted, even though the current fashion is to downplay their importance in public; but Shorten is also firmly in the prototype of modern Labor leadership where power extends beyond the internal power alignments. Shorten's well-established media profile, and his ability to play "the media game", is seen as a plus in an age where presidential politics is the norm rather than the exception. | Institutional power structures still matter in how leadership battles in Labor are ultimately transacted, even though the current fashion is to downplay their importance in public; but Shorten is also firmly in the prototype of modern Labor leadership where power extends beyond the internal power alignments. Shorten's well-established media profile, and his ability to play "the media game", is seen as a plus in an age where presidential politics is the norm rather than the exception. |
| In terms of policy and legislation, Shorten's positive record in parliament includes his early, highly effective advocacy of the national disability insurance scheme, and his assiduous efforts to complete Julia Gillard's Gonski schools reform agenda pre-election. Shorten handled the sensitivities about Gillard's legacy and the legacy of the former education minister Peter Garrett with some diplomacy at a time when internal feelings ran high. Shorten also succeeded in the practical dimension: getting state governments to sign on. | In terms of policy and legislation, Shorten's positive record in parliament includes his early, highly effective advocacy of the national disability insurance scheme, and his assiduous efforts to complete Julia Gillard's Gonski schools reform agenda pre-election. Shorten handled the sensitivities about Gillard's legacy and the legacy of the former education minister Peter Garrett with some diplomacy at a time when internal feelings ran high. Shorten also succeeded in the practical dimension: getting state governments to sign on. |
| The less positive baggage hovering around Shorten resides from his activities as kingmaker. His reputation for treachery stems primarily from his move against Kevin Rudd in 2010, and then his subsequent move against Julia Gillard in 2013. Those who wield the knife in politics accumulate power – but they end up wearing the consequences of the blood sport for some period of time, both in terms of public perceptions and relationships with colleagues. | The less positive baggage hovering around Shorten resides from his activities as kingmaker. His reputation for treachery stems primarily from his move against Kevin Rudd in 2010, and then his subsequent move against Julia Gillard in 2013. Those who wield the knife in politics accumulate power – but they end up wearing the consequences of the blood sport for some period of time, both in terms of public perceptions and relationships with colleagues. |
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