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The German elections will test David Cameron's luck The German elections will test David Cameron's luck
(7 days later)
David Cameron has been luckier than he deserves to be in his dealings with Europe's most powerful political leader. If Angela Merkel were a less pragmatic and forgiving type she would not lightly dismiss the prime minister's serial offences against good conservative Europeanism, not least his futile summit veto at the height of the eurozone crisis in December 2011.David Cameron has been luckier than he deserves to be in his dealings with Europe's most powerful political leader. If Angela Merkel were a less pragmatic and forgiving type she would not lightly dismiss the prime minister's serial offences against good conservative Europeanism, not least his futile summit veto at the height of the eurozone crisis in December 2011.
Fastidious Germans of all political persuasion look on such tactics as populist pandering to growing anti-EU sentiment in Britain. They insist that their own Eurosceptic party, the Alternative for Germany (AfG) party, which hopes to enter the Bundestag at the 22 September federal elections, is not like Ukip. It merely wishes to reform the EU – notably via a smaller eurozone of virtuous northern states – not to leave it as Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader with a German wife, would.Fastidious Germans of all political persuasion look on such tactics as populist pandering to growing anti-EU sentiment in Britain. They insist that their own Eurosceptic party, the Alternative for Germany (AfG) party, which hopes to enter the Bundestag at the 22 September federal elections, is not like Ukip. It merely wishes to reform the EU – notably via a smaller eurozone of virtuous northern states – not to leave it as Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader with a German wife, would.
They shudder at his latest domestic manoeuvre, the promise of a UK renegotiation in order to repatriate powers from Brussels, culminating in a high-risk referendum in 2017, a reprise of Harold Wilson's bogus renegotiation and 2-1 referendum win in 1975, but in far more hostile circumstances. Far from modernising his party as they have had to do, German MPs see Cameron as letting the Tories relapse into Thatcherite nostalgia.They shudder at his latest domestic manoeuvre, the promise of a UK renegotiation in order to repatriate powers from Brussels, culminating in a high-risk referendum in 2017, a reprise of Harold Wilson's bogus renegotiation and 2-1 referendum win in 1975, but in far more hostile circumstances. Far from modernising his party as they have had to do, German MPs see Cameron as letting the Tories relapse into Thatcherite nostalgia.
So whoever wins power in Berlin this month – and experts say the result could be closer and more complex than the Merkel victory signalled in most polls – the new chancellor will not bend backwards to rescue Cameron's Berlin-style blue-orange coalition with Britain's version of the German Free Democrats (FDP). The UK's Liberal Democrats may be led by the ardently pro-EU, multilingual Nick Clegg but he seems powerless on EU policy, which has become a designated game reserve in which to feed the Tory right with red meat.So whoever wins power in Berlin this month – and experts say the result could be closer and more complex than the Merkel victory signalled in most polls – the new chancellor will not bend backwards to rescue Cameron's Berlin-style blue-orange coalition with Britain's version of the German Free Democrats (FDP). The UK's Liberal Democrats may be led by the ardently pro-EU, multilingual Nick Clegg but he seems powerless on EU policy, which has become a designated game reserve in which to feed the Tory right with red meat.
Did not Cameron win the Conservative leadership in 2005 by promising to quit the 28-nation conservative EPP group at the Strasbourg parliament? Yes. And to widespread surprise, he actually did it in 2009. It was an act of self-isolation that cut the Tories off from another mainstream EU power network; not as significant as London's refusal to join the euro – few pro-EU British politicians are still brave enough to call that a mistake – but an act of ideological pique nonetheless.Did not Cameron win the Conservative leadership in 2005 by promising to quit the 28-nation conservative EPP group at the Strasbourg parliament? Yes. And to widespread surprise, he actually did it in 2009. It was an act of self-isolation that cut the Tories off from another mainstream EU power network; not as significant as London's refusal to join the euro – few pro-EU British politicians are still brave enough to call that a mistake – but an act of ideological pique nonetheless.
Despite all of the above, Germany needs Britain to stay in the EU, as a counterweight to France and a pro-austerity north European state with a globalist trading perspective and residual military and diplomatic clout – not least in Washington when EU/US trade talks are under way – that Berlin respects even as it resists Anglo-French interventionism. And Britons of all parties who are not tempted by the "Quit Europe" panacea know they need Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, its paymaster and political sheet-anchor in the economic crisis that still threatens the eurozone's indebted southern flank.Despite all of the above, Germany needs Britain to stay in the EU, as a counterweight to France and a pro-austerity north European state with a globalist trading perspective and residual military and diplomatic clout – not least in Washington when EU/US trade talks are under way – that Berlin respects even as it resists Anglo-French interventionism. And Britons of all parties who are not tempted by the "Quit Europe" panacea know they need Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, its paymaster and political sheet-anchor in the economic crisis that still threatens the eurozone's indebted southern flank.
The paradox of British foreign policy, after five recessionary years, is that both sides at Westminster have been forced to endorse integrationist solutions to the zone's banking and fiscal dramas that will strengthen the ascendancy of Brussels and Berlin and exacerbate the "democratic deficit". It is the hegemonic outcome that British policy has fought to prevent for centuries. But the alternative is worse: a collapse of the eurozone, Britain's prime market, into disorder and resurgent nationalism.The paradox of British foreign policy, after five recessionary years, is that both sides at Westminster have been forced to endorse integrationist solutions to the zone's banking and fiscal dramas that will strengthen the ascendancy of Brussels and Berlin and exacerbate the "democratic deficit". It is the hegemonic outcome that British policy has fought to prevent for centuries. But the alternative is worse: a collapse of the eurozone, Britain's prime market, into disorder and resurgent nationalism.
Of course, Ed Miliband would like to see Merkel's SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück, win on 22 September, or the CDU/CSU's coalition with the FDP fall apart, an event that might encourage Tory and Lib Dem splitters. On higher taxes for the wealthy, better pay for the bottom half of Germany's widening economic divide and much else, Labour and the SPD are soul brothers. A red-Green centre-left coalition could help set the tone for Labour to return to power in coalition in 2015.Of course, Ed Miliband would like to see Merkel's SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück, win on 22 September, or the CDU/CSU's coalition with the FDP fall apart, an event that might encourage Tory and Lib Dem splitters. On higher taxes for the wealthy, better pay for the bottom half of Germany's widening economic divide and much else, Labour and the SPD are soul brothers. A red-Green centre-left coalition could help set the tone for Labour to return to power in coalition in 2015.
Dream on, murmur Labour realists. The combative Steinbrück is stuck at about 25% in most polls, his electoral base eroded by both Greens and the Linke, the kind of leftwing breakaway that British socialists such as filmmaker Ken Loach talk of but cannot make effective without reform to Britain's first-past-the-post voting system, which voters rejected in 2011.Dream on, murmur Labour realists. The combative Steinbrück is stuck at about 25% in most polls, his electoral base eroded by both Greens and the Linke, the kind of leftwing breakaway that British socialists such as filmmaker Ken Loach talk of but cannot make effective without reform to Britain's first-past-the-post voting system, which voters rejected in 2011.
The German arithmetic may be tight, especially if the FDP fails to reach the 5% Bundestag threshold. But with the eurozone economy at last picking up, the worst Merkel is likely to face is another grand coalition with the SPD like 2005-9. German voters like the arrangement – "there's little difference between the two main parties now", admits one veteran German observer – but Brits would hate it even more than they do the Lib Dem-Con coalition since 2010. No lessons there for Westminster unless (unlikely) Merkel is obliged to entreat the AfG for Bundestag votes. Nigel Farage would enjoy that.The German arithmetic may be tight, especially if the FDP fails to reach the 5% Bundestag threshold. But with the eurozone economy at last picking up, the worst Merkel is likely to face is another grand coalition with the SPD like 2005-9. German voters like the arrangement – "there's little difference between the two main parties now", admits one veteran German observer – but Brits would hate it even more than they do the Lib Dem-Con coalition since 2010. No lessons there for Westminster unless (unlikely) Merkel is obliged to entreat the AfG for Bundestag votes. Nigel Farage would enjoy that.
Which way will Merkel play Cameron if she wins her third term in style? Personally, she seems to like him and his young family, playing auntie at both Chequers and its counterpart, Schloss Meseberg. Cameron reciprocates ("a phenomenal political leader"). Friendship, sometimes across parties, helps oil wheels. But business is business.Which way will Merkel play Cameron if she wins her third term in style? Personally, she seems to like him and his young family, playing auntie at both Chequers and its counterpart, Schloss Meseberg. Cameron reciprocates ("a phenomenal political leader"). Friendship, sometimes across parties, helps oil wheels. But business is business.
Merkel spoke publicly in August of repatriating some powers to member states ("we do not need to do everything in Brussels"). It encouraged Tory MPs in the Fresh Start group of EU reformers into thinking she might be more flexible than France over Cameron's stalled "balance of competences" review. Merkel's briefers stress, however, that bearing down on budget costs, welfare bills (the EU has 25% of global GDP but 50% of global social spending, she repeats in many speeches) and economic inefficiency is acceptable. Re-opening existing "ever closer union" treaties, or repatriating employment law, are not.Merkel spoke publicly in August of repatriating some powers to member states ("we do not need to do everything in Brussels"). It encouraged Tory MPs in the Fresh Start group of EU reformers into thinking she might be more flexible than France over Cameron's stalled "balance of competences" review. Merkel's briefers stress, however, that bearing down on budget costs, welfare bills (the EU has 25% of global GDP but 50% of global social spending, she repeats in many speeches) and economic inefficiency is acceptable. Re-opening existing "ever closer union" treaties, or repatriating employment law, are not.
Can Labour profit from the trap Cameron has set himself? In the current climate, probably not. Initially opposed to a referendum on Europe, Miliband is being urged to think again or risk electoral damage among voters lazily keen to blame "Brussels" for Britain's woes. In a speech at Chatham House in January, his foreign affairs spokesman, Douglas Alexander, condemned Cameron's "unilateralist" strategy, but endorsed a leaner, more flexible vision of Europe.Can Labour profit from the trap Cameron has set himself? In the current climate, probably not. Initially opposed to a referendum on Europe, Miliband is being urged to think again or risk electoral damage among voters lazily keen to blame "Brussels" for Britain's woes. In a speech at Chatham House in January, his foreign affairs spokesman, Douglas Alexander, condemned Cameron's "unilateralist" strategy, but endorsed a leaner, more flexible vision of Europe.
Like Tony Blair before him, he did not sound like a British pro-European bravely charging towards the Eurosceptic guns. The timid consensus is that there are few votes to be won by trying to make the case for Europe in the low-key and reasonable way German politicians usually do. That may have to change if Britain's place at the top EU table is to be confirmed for another generation as Wilson's 1975 referendum did.Like Tony Blair before him, he did not sound like a British pro-European bravely charging towards the Eurosceptic guns. The timid consensus is that there are few votes to be won by trying to make the case for Europe in the low-key and reasonable way German politicians usually do. That may have to change if Britain's place at the top EU table is to be confirmed for another generation as Wilson's 1975 referendum did.
Then, Helmut Schmidt, Germany's cerebral SPD chancellor, came to London to urge a Yes vote at a special Labour conference by quoting Julius Caesar at them. "There is a tide in the affairs of men which taken at the flood …" The time may yet come for Frau Merkel to brush up her Shakespeare. Not much chance that Mr Cameron will start quoting Schiller.Then, Helmut Schmidt, Germany's cerebral SPD chancellor, came to London to urge a Yes vote at a special Labour conference by quoting Julius Caesar at them. "There is a tide in the affairs of men which taken at the flood …" The time may yet come for Frau Merkel to brush up her Shakespeare. Not much chance that Mr Cameron will start quoting Schiller.
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