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| Chemical Disarmament Hard Even in Peacetime | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Spread far and wide across Syria, the chemical weapons complex of the fractured state includes factories, bunkers, storage depots and thousands of munitions, all of which would have to be inspected and secured under a diplomatic initiative that President Obama says he is willing to explore. | Spread far and wide across Syria, the chemical weapons complex of the fractured state includes factories, bunkers, storage depots and thousands of munitions, all of which would have to be inspected and secured under a diplomatic initiative that President Obama says he is willing to explore. |
| But monitoring and securing unconventional weapons have proved challenging in places like Iraq, North Korea and Iran — even in peacetime. Syria is bound up in the third year of a bloody civil war, with many of the facilities squarely in battlefields. | But monitoring and securing unconventional weapons have proved challenging in places like Iraq, North Korea and Iran — even in peacetime. Syria is bound up in the third year of a bloody civil war, with many of the facilities squarely in battlefields. |
| “I’m very concerned about the fine print,” said Amy E. Smithson, an expert on chemical weapons at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California. “It’s a gargantuan task for the inspectors to mothball production, install padlocks, inventory the bulk agent as well as the munitions. Then a lot of it has to be destroyed — in a war zone.” | “I’m very concerned about the fine print,” said Amy E. Smithson, an expert on chemical weapons at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California. “It’s a gargantuan task for the inspectors to mothball production, install padlocks, inventory the bulk agent as well as the munitions. Then a lot of it has to be destroyed — in a war zone.” |
| “What I’m saying is, ‘Beware of this deal,’ ” Dr. Smithson added. “It’s deceptively attractive.” | “What I’m saying is, ‘Beware of this deal,’ ” Dr. Smithson added. “It’s deceptively attractive.” |
| As difficult as it may be to reach a diplomatic solution to head off a United States strike on Syria, the details of enforcement are themselves complex and uncertain, people with experience monitoring weapons facilities said. | As difficult as it may be to reach a diplomatic solution to head off a United States strike on Syria, the details of enforcement are themselves complex and uncertain, people with experience monitoring weapons facilities said. |
| Syria would first have to provide specifics about all aspects of its chemical weapons program. But even that step would require negotiation to determine exactly what should be declared and whether certain systems would be covered, because many delivery systems for chemical weapons — including artillery, mortars and multiple-rocket launchers — can also fire conventional weapons. | Syria would first have to provide specifics about all aspects of its chemical weapons program. But even that step would require negotiation to determine exactly what should be declared and whether certain systems would be covered, because many delivery systems for chemical weapons — including artillery, mortars and multiple-rocket launchers — can also fire conventional weapons. |
| Then, experts said, large numbers of foreign troops would almost certainly be needed to safeguard inspectors working in the midst of the civil war. | Then, experts said, large numbers of foreign troops would almost certainly be needed to safeguard inspectors working in the midst of the civil war. |
| “We’re talking boots on the ground,” said one former United Nations weapons inspector from Iraq, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he still works in the field on contracts and did not want to hurt his chances of future employment. “We’re not talking about just putting someone at the gate. You have to have layers of security.” | “We’re talking boots on the ground,” said one former United Nations weapons inspector from Iraq, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he still works in the field on contracts and did not want to hurt his chances of future employment. “We’re not talking about just putting someone at the gate. You have to have layers of security.” |
| Destruction and deactivation of those weapons could then take years. | Destruction and deactivation of those weapons could then take years. |
| The Obama administration is skeptical about whether this approach might work. A senior administration official called securing chemical arms in a war zone “just the first nightmare of making this work.” | The Obama administration is skeptical about whether this approach might work. A senior administration official called securing chemical arms in a war zone “just the first nightmare of making this work.” |
| A Pentagon study concluded that doing so would take more than 75,000 troops. That rough estimate has been questioned, but the official said it gave “a sense of the magnitude of the task.” | A Pentagon study concluded that doing so would take more than 75,000 troops. That rough estimate has been questioned, but the official said it gave “a sense of the magnitude of the task.” |
| Another riddle centers on arms movement. As President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has lost territory, or has feared that rebels could seize the lethal stockpile, he has consolidated his chemical weapons, administration officials say. Thus the old estimate that intelligence agencies offered — of 42 separate chemical sites — may no longer hold true. | Another riddle centers on arms movement. As President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has lost territory, or has feared that rebels could seize the lethal stockpile, he has consolidated his chemical weapons, administration officials say. Thus the old estimate that intelligence agencies offered — of 42 separate chemical sites — may no longer hold true. |
| “We only know a good deal about 19 of them,” said another senior official who has been briefed on the intelligence. Thus, doubts could fester on whether Mr. Assad had turned over his entire arsenal. | “We only know a good deal about 19 of them,” said another senior official who has been briefed on the intelligence. Thus, doubts could fester on whether Mr. Assad had turned over his entire arsenal. |
| Specialists in ordnance disposal and demilitarization say any effort to account for Syria’s chemical weapons would require huge investments of resources and time, and the likely assumption of battlefield risk. The United Nations already has 110 chemical inspectors stretched thin around the globe, and their ranks would have to swell. | Specialists in ordnance disposal and demilitarization say any effort to account for Syria’s chemical weapons would require huge investments of resources and time, and the likely assumption of battlefield risk. The United Nations already has 110 chemical inspectors stretched thin around the globe, and their ranks would have to swell. |
| “I suspect some casualties would be unavoidable,” said Stephen Johnson, a former British Army chemical warfare expert who served two tours of duty in the Iraqi desert. “The question you have to ask is whether the benefits would be worth that kind of pain.” | |
| These are not, experts noted, theoretical issues that may arise, but hard realities. | These are not, experts noted, theoretical issues that may arise, but hard realities. |
| “Whichever country would be sent in there to try to get the accountability and do the security, and maybe eventually get to the destruction — they will be a target for someone, for one group or another,” the former United Nations weapons inspector said. “Because no matter who you are, you get mortared somewhere by one of the parties.” | “Whichever country would be sent in there to try to get the accountability and do the security, and maybe eventually get to the destruction — they will be a target for someone, for one group or another,” the former United Nations weapons inspector said. “Because no matter who you are, you get mortared somewhere by one of the parties.” |
| On the outskirts of Al-Safira, a town in northern Syria, for example, the government runs a giant, heavily guarded plant for the production of the deadly nerve gas implicated in the Aug. 21 massacre in the Damascus suburbs. That area is often a focus of pitched battles. While the plant remains under apparently firm Syrian military control, rebels in the countryside harass the place and the roads leading to the town, raising fears that the plant’s chemical prize could fall into extremely unfriendly hands. | On the outskirts of Al-Safira, a town in northern Syria, for example, the government runs a giant, heavily guarded plant for the production of the deadly nerve gas implicated in the Aug. 21 massacre in the Damascus suburbs. That area is often a focus of pitched battles. While the plant remains under apparently firm Syrian military control, rebels in the countryside harass the place and the roads leading to the town, raising fears that the plant’s chemical prize could fall into extremely unfriendly hands. |
| The rebel forces include two powerful groups that are openly aligned with Al Qaeda: the Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The forces also include several other strongly Islamist formations that collaborate with the attackers, including Ahrar al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sharq, Liwaa al-Islam and Liwaa al-Tawheed. | |
| Late last year, the Syrian Army sent to the Al-Safira base a relief convoy of nearly 30 tanks and as many as thousands of soldiers, rebels say. How much of the deadly stockpile remains there is unknown. The rebels say the convoy later moved to Hama and may have consolidated some of the chemical arms there — another site of pitched fighting. | Late last year, the Syrian Army sent to the Al-Safira base a relief convoy of nearly 30 tanks and as many as thousands of soldiers, rebels say. How much of the deadly stockpile remains there is unknown. The rebels say the convoy later moved to Hama and may have consolidated some of the chemical arms there — another site of pitched fighting. |
| A central issue is the question of accounting for the specific rockets used in the attack that the United States said had killed more than 1,400 people last month. Apparently newly made and never seen before, they have so far proved to be untraceable to a particular factory or chemical-productions plant, and Syria insists that it neither made nor fired the weapons. | A central issue is the question of accounting for the specific rockets used in the attack that the United States said had killed more than 1,400 people last month. Apparently newly made and never seen before, they have so far proved to be untraceable to a particular factory or chemical-productions plant, and Syria insists that it neither made nor fired the weapons. |
| Some military experts, therefore, said they foresaw a flaw in any accord: If the rockets used in the highly publicized attack are not declared, then the international proposal will exclude the very weapons that prompted Mr. Obama to call for a military strike on Syria. | Some military experts, therefore, said they foresaw a flaw in any accord: If the rockets used in the highly publicized attack are not declared, then the international proposal will exclude the very weapons that prompted Mr. Obama to call for a military strike on Syria. |
| In more peaceful circumstances, United Nation inspectors have overseen the destruction of most of the world’s declared stockpiles of chemical arms. They do so under the Chemical Weapons Convention, a global treaty that bans the development, production, stockpiling and use of the deadly arms. | In more peaceful circumstances, United Nation inspectors have overseen the destruction of most of the world’s declared stockpiles of chemical arms. They do so under the Chemical Weapons Convention, a global treaty that bans the development, production, stockpiling and use of the deadly arms. |
| The United Nations inspection unit — the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, known as the O.P.C.W. and based in The Hague — has so far verified the destruction in seven countries of millions of weapons holding thousands of tons of deadly agent and would likely play a similar role in Syria if a verifiable plan can be reached. | The United Nations inspection unit — the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, known as the O.P.C.W. and based in The Hague — has so far verified the destruction in seven countries of millions of weapons holding thousands of tons of deadly agent and would likely play a similar role in Syria if a verifiable plan can be reached. |
| Syria never signed the 1993 treaty, which went into force in 1997. So an accord by which the United Nations unit would monitor the destruction of Syria’s chemical arsenal would likely go through Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations. At his direction, the chemical inspectors have already gone to Syria to investigate the Aug. 21 massacre. The United Nations has not said when it planned to release their report on that investigation. | Syria never signed the 1993 treaty, which went into force in 1997. So an accord by which the United Nations unit would monitor the destruction of Syria’s chemical arsenal would likely go through Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations. At his direction, the chemical inspectors have already gone to Syria to investigate the Aug. 21 massacre. The United Nations has not said when it planned to release their report on that investigation. |
| The United Nations inspectors have traveled to Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, France, India, Iran, Iraq, Japan, Libya, Russia, Serbia, Britain and the United States to oversee the destruction and deactivation of chemical weapons plants. On its Web site, the O.P.C.W. says more than 80 percent of the world’s declared stockpiles have been eliminated to date. The nations with the biggest arsenals — the United States and Russia — have received deadline extensions. | The United Nations inspectors have traveled to Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, France, India, Iran, Iraq, Japan, Libya, Russia, Serbia, Britain and the United States to oversee the destruction and deactivation of chemical weapons plants. On its Web site, the O.P.C.W. says more than 80 percent of the world’s declared stockpiles have been eliminated to date. The nations with the biggest arsenals — the United States and Russia — have received deadline extensions. |
| A total of 70 plants and facilities declared under the 1993 treaty are now disabled and subject to what the organization calls “a verification regime of unprecedented stringency.” | A total of 70 plants and facilities declared under the 1993 treaty are now disabled and subject to what the organization calls “a verification regime of unprecedented stringency.” |
| Military experts fear that forcing Syria to disarm would be far more difficult than dealing with nations that volunteered to eliminate their chemical arsenals. | Military experts fear that forcing Syria to disarm would be far more difficult than dealing with nations that volunteered to eliminate their chemical arsenals. |
| Raymond A. Zilinskas, a senior scientist at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and a former United Nations weapons inspector, said the inspectors might have to become chemical detectives in search of hidden arms. | Raymond A. Zilinskas, a senior scientist at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and a former United Nations weapons inspector, said the inspectors might have to become chemical detectives in search of hidden arms. |
| “I worry about that,” he said in an interview. “How do you verify that all Syrian weapons are known and under control?” | “I worry about that,” he said in an interview. “How do you verify that all Syrian weapons are known and under control?” |
| Mr. Johnson, now a forensic expert at Cranfield University at Shrivenham in Britain, said in an interview: “After more than 20 years in Iraq, the job still isn’t finished. Syria could be worse.” | Mr. Johnson, now a forensic expert at Cranfield University at Shrivenham in Britain, said in an interview: “After more than 20 years in Iraq, the job still isn’t finished. Syria could be worse.” |
David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington, and Karam Shoumali from Antakya, Turkey. | David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington, and Karam Shoumali from Antakya, Turkey. |
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