U.S. Official Predicts ‘War of Attrition’ Among Syrian Fighters After Strike
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Version 0 of 1. VILNIUS, Lithuania — A senior State Department official said on Friday that the military strike the United States is planning would not fundamentally alter the military balance in Syria and would likely be followed by a prolonged “war of attrition” among the Syrian combatants. ‘I don’t expect huge, huge change on the day after on the ground,” said the official, who is traveling with Secretary of State John Kerry to a meeting here with European Union foreign ministers on the Middle East. “That grinding war of attrition will continue and the regime’s manpower shortages will continue to grow, but I would not expect a breakthrough on the ground.” The official’s comments came amid a debate in Washington over how hard a blow the American-led attack should deliver if Congress authorizes military action, and to what extent an attack should be aimed at degrading the military forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in addition to deterring future chemical attacks. Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, has argued that the one of the goals of the strike should be to tip the balance in the civil war more toward the opposition by attacking the government’s air force and other weapons at its disposal that can deliver conventional as well as chemical arms. But that has spurred fears of “mission creep” on the part of other lawmakers, who fear that an attack would set off a chain of escalation in which Mr. Assad would retaliate and the United States and its allies would be forced to respond. There has been a parallel debate between American officials who have met with the Syrian opposition over the past two weeks to discuss the basic parameters of the strike. “We have been very explicit to the Syrian opposition that any military action that we might take in response to the chemical weapons attack is going to be limited and very focused solely on re-establishing the deterrence,” said the official, who requested anonymity as per diplomatic protocol. “Do they all welcome that?” he said. “No, some would like us to do more than that. They will be disappointed, therefore.” Even if the strikes are somewhat limited, the official asserted, they would discourage the Assad government from again using chemical weapons and that, in any case, the condition of Syrian forces would weaken over time. But he suggested that the push to improve the rebels’ fortunes on the battlefield, and ultimately foster the condition for a possible political settlement, would depend more on increasing efforts to arm the opposition and improve its ability to govern the area it has captured. The official introduced some of the arguments American officials are expected to make to their European counterparts during Mr. Kerry’s four-day trip. He asserted that the failure to act militarily presented graver risks than a limited military intervention. Syrian civilians, fearful that the Assad government would strike again with chemical weapons, would continue to flood into Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, he said. Moderate elements of the Syrian opposition would be weakened. Extremists who have argued that the United States cares only about Israel and that it is foolhardy to rely assurances from the White House, he said, would get a “boost.” Mr. Kerry’s trip was initially designed mainly to support the peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, which resumed after nearly three years. He plans to meet in London on Monday with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority. He had planned to meet in Rome with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, but with tensions running high on Syria the Israeli decided to remain in Jerusalem. A senior official who works on Middle East issues said that the United States was prepared to propose ideas to bridge differences between the two sides but that such efforts, which could include a three-way meeting of Mr. Kerry, Mr. Abbas and Mr. Netanyahu, would come later in the talks. “I think that trilateral meetings is something that will come, but they will come further on in the process,” he said. Mr. Kerry is expected to emphasize in Vilnius that the European Union should avoid measures to punish Israel, such as one it recently imposed to restrict the financing of projects in territories occupied by Israel after the 1967 war, which has provoked alarm in the Israeli government. The senior official with Middle East responsibilities said that Mr. Kerry’s message to the European Union foreign ministers would be clear: now that the Israelis had entered into direct talks with the Palestinians, the European Union should encourage them to move forward rather than “bang them over the head.” On Sunday, Mr. Kerry will consult with Arab League foreign ministers in Paris to encourage their support for the peace talks. Mr. Kerry is to meet on Monday with William Hague, the foreign secretary of Britain, which has been supplanted by France as the United States’s closest military partner in the strike planned for Syria. |