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| Tony Abbott sets out the dots and the media join them | Tony Abbott sets out the dots and the media join them |
| (12 days later) | |
| Tony Abbott ended the campaign doing what he has done for so long with such brutal success – framing the political debate. | Tony Abbott ended the campaign doing what he has done for so long with such brutal success – framing the political debate. |
| Finally releasing the Coalition costings just two days before voting day, Joe Hockey said the intention was to "cut growth in foreign aid to pay for more infrastructure here in Australia". | Finally releasing the Coalition costings just two days before voting day, Joe Hockey said the intention was to "cut growth in foreign aid to pay for more infrastructure here in Australia". |
| It was a very deliberate exercise in setting out the dots which the Coalition wanted the media to join. | It was a very deliberate exercise in setting out the dots which the Coalition wanted the media to join. |
| After all Labor’s talk of drastic cuts to health and education, Tony Abbott wanted voters to hear the message that the only thing really being wound back was the money we send overseas. He probably calculated that, in the minds of the disengaged or disillusioned voters he was still trying to reach, cutting the growth in foreign aid spending would actually help him, and that anyone who might get angry enough for it to be a vote-changing issue probably wasn’t going to vote for him anyway. | After all Labor’s talk of drastic cuts to health and education, Tony Abbott wanted voters to hear the message that the only thing really being wound back was the money we send overseas. He probably calculated that, in the minds of the disengaged or disillusioned voters he was still trying to reach, cutting the growth in foreign aid spending would actually help him, and that anyone who might get angry enough for it to be a vote-changing issue probably wasn’t going to vote for him anyway. |
| On the high-rating Sunrise breakfast program on Friday morning, the Coalition leader was almost boasting about the cut to foreign aid forecasts. | On the high-rating Sunrise breakfast program on Friday morning, the Coalition leader was almost boasting about the cut to foreign aid forecasts. |
| “At the moment, Kochie, we are borrowing money from overseas to send it overseas as foreign aid. I don't think it makes sense. I think it makes a lot more sense to build our country here in Australia. That's why we will build the roads of the 21st century rather than shovel money abroad,” he said. | “At the moment, Kochie, we are borrowing money from overseas to send it overseas as foreign aid. I don't think it makes sense. I think it makes a lot more sense to build our country here in Australia. That's why we will build the roads of the 21st century rather than shovel money abroad,” he said. |
| In one sense it was a legitimate headline to the Coalition cost-cutting story, and one Guardian Australia also pursued. The $4.5bn cut in forecast foreign aid spending was the biggest previously unknown spending cut unveiled. | In one sense it was a legitimate headline to the Coalition cost-cutting story, and one Guardian Australia also pursued. The $4.5bn cut in forecast foreign aid spending was the biggest previously unknown spending cut unveiled. |
| But also in the fine print of the costings document – as we pointed out – was a big cut from public transport funding. We already knew Abbott wasn’t going to fund urban rail projects, but here we had the full and costed cuts to Melbourne metro rail, the Brisbane cross-river rail, Perth urban rail public transport and the Tonsley Park public transport plan for Adelaide. | But also in the fine print of the costings document – as we pointed out – was a big cut from public transport funding. We already knew Abbott wasn’t going to fund urban rail projects, but here we had the full and costed cuts to Melbourne metro rail, the Brisbane cross-river rail, Perth urban rail public transport and the Tonsley Park public transport plan for Adelaide. |
| So the Coalition could have just as legitimately said it was paying for road infrastructure by cutting public transport. | So the Coalition could have just as legitimately said it was paying for road infrastructure by cutting public transport. |
| And also in the document was the previously flagged cut to the schoolkids bonus, worth $4.6bn over the same four years. So the Coalition could also be said to be paying for new roads by taking away government payments to low and middle income households. But those would have been far less palatable stories. | And also in the document was the previously flagged cut to the schoolkids bonus, worth $4.6bn over the same four years. So the Coalition could also be said to be paying for new roads by taking away government payments to low and middle income households. But those would have been far less palatable stories. |
| Take a longer term view and the whole costings saga is a masterclass in political debate framing. | Take a longer term view and the whole costings saga is a masterclass in political debate framing. |
| Abbott and Hockey managed to prevent Labor from claiming credit for Australia’s relatively strong economy by constantly declaring a “budget emergency”, by decrying the continuing budget deficits and Australia’s levels of national debt. But then, at the 11th hour, it unveiled a set of costings based on fiscal settings almost identical to Labor’s – the budget will return to surplus no sooner under a Coalition government than under the ALP. | Abbott and Hockey managed to prevent Labor from claiming credit for Australia’s relatively strong economy by constantly declaring a “budget emergency”, by decrying the continuing budget deficits and Australia’s levels of national debt. But then, at the 11th hour, it unveiled a set of costings based on fiscal settings almost identical to Labor’s – the budget will return to surplus no sooner under a Coalition government than under the ALP. |
| The climate change debate is another case study. Tony Abbott’s final address to the national press club was full of big scary numbers about the cost to the economy of Labor’s emissions trading scheme by 2050. But the Treasury modelling compares the impact of Australia actually meeting a promise to cut emissions by 80% of 2000 levels by 2020 with the direct economic impact of doing nothing and finds the economy will continue to grow strongly but slightly less strongly than it would have done otherwise. | The climate change debate is another case study. Tony Abbott’s final address to the national press club was full of big scary numbers about the cost to the economy of Labor’s emissions trading scheme by 2050. But the Treasury modelling compares the impact of Australia actually meeting a promise to cut emissions by 80% of 2000 levels by 2020 with the direct economic impact of doing nothing and finds the economy will continue to grow strongly but slightly less strongly than it would have done otherwise. |
| The fair political comparison would be with what it would cost to meet a credible 2050 target under Abbott’s Direct Action climate strategy, which the Coalition has not modelled at all, preferring as Abbott said on Thursday to just “have a crack”. | The fair political comparison would be with what it would cost to meet a credible 2050 target under Abbott’s Direct Action climate strategy, which the Coalition has not modelled at all, preferring as Abbott said on Thursday to just “have a crack”. |
| But independent modelling has found Direct Action is insufficiently funded to meet even the minimum 5% target for 2020. One of the independent models found Abbott’s policy would cost $88bn out to 2050 and would still fail dismally to meet Australia’s target. The other concluded it was just too expensive to model at all. This is, of course, not the comparison the Coalition leader made. | But independent modelling has found Direct Action is insufficiently funded to meet even the minimum 5% target for 2020. One of the independent models found Abbott’s policy would cost $88bn out to 2050 and would still fail dismally to meet Australia’s target. The other concluded it was just too expensive to model at all. This is, of course, not the comparison the Coalition leader made. |
| And it seems likely the asylum debate will be the best example of all if the Coalition, as expected, wins office on Saturday. | And it seems likely the asylum debate will be the best example of all if the Coalition, as expected, wins office on Saturday. |
| Labor has dutifully issued a press statement announcing each asylum seeker boat that has arrived and how many people are on it – every one of them another political bullet for the Coalition and its allegation that there is a “crisis” on our borders. | Labor has dutifully issued a press statement announcing each asylum seeker boat that has arrived and how many people are on it – every one of them another political bullet for the Coalition and its allegation that there is a “crisis” on our borders. |
| But the Coalition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, told us during the election campaign that it would be up to the three-star general in charge of his “operation sovereign borders” to decide whether this information continued to be released in the future. It seems pretty likely the information won’t be released at all, or will be released in a different way – making it harder to check whether the Coalition makes good on its “stop the boats” mantra. | But the Coalition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, told us during the election campaign that it would be up to the three-star general in charge of his “operation sovereign borders” to decide whether this information continued to be released in the future. It seems pretty likely the information won’t be released at all, or will be released in a different way – making it harder to check whether the Coalition makes good on its “stop the boats” mantra. |
| If Tony Abbott has been this good at framing the debate from opposition, he’ll be even better with the resources and authority of government, which he appears likely to have after Saturday. That makes it all the more important to analyse for ourselves and join our own dots, rather than accept the political narrative set before us. | If Tony Abbott has been this good at framing the debate from opposition, he’ll be even better with the resources and authority of government, which he appears likely to have after Saturday. That makes it all the more important to analyse for ourselves and join our own dots, rather than accept the political narrative set before us. |
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