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From Cairns to Melbourne, this election is about a pervasive sense of discontent From Cairns to Melbourne, this election is about a pervasive sense of discontent
(12 days later)
Cairns in the morning, the riot of tropical colour, deep-green palm fronds and the sparkling light blue of the water, orange red green fruits piled high on the tables at Rusty's market, and there's half a dozen of us, journos and crew, waiting for Bob. Katter that is, the white-stetson wearing Queensland maverick, currently trying to jack his nationalist right-wing anti-free-market Katter's Australia Party (KAP) into a couple of Senate seats.Cairns in the morning, the riot of tropical colour, deep-green palm fronds and the sparkling light blue of the water, orange red green fruits piled high on the tables at Rusty's market, and there's half a dozen of us, journos and crew, waiting for Bob. Katter that is, the white-stetson wearing Queensland maverick, currently trying to jack his nationalist right-wing anti-free-market Katter's Australia Party (KAP) into a couple of Senate seats.
Bob's a way away, talking on a mobile, and we're all waiting. He styles himself after Huey "the Kingfish" Long, the 1930s demagogue who ran the state of Louisiana as a private fiefdom, but also got schools hospitals and roads built in the place, so it's not impossible that he's having some guy whacked.Bob's a way away, talking on a mobile, and we're all waiting. He styles himself after Huey "the Kingfish" Long, the 1930s demagogue who ran the state of Louisiana as a private fiefdom, but also got schools hospitals and roads built in the place, so it's not impossible that he's having some guy whacked.
In the meantime I chat with George Ryan, the amiable – ie not going to win – KAP candidate for Leichhardt, the seat that stretches from Cairns to the top of Cape York, the northernmost-part of Australia – except, that is, for some of the Torres Strait islands that run all the way to the waters of Papua New Guinea. Ryan's running strong on opposing the "PNG solution", pointing out that people can walk from Papua to Australian territory at low tide, so it ain't much of a solution.In the meantime I chat with George Ryan, the amiable – ie not going to win – KAP candidate for Leichhardt, the seat that stretches from Cairns to the top of Cape York, the northernmost-part of Australia – except, that is, for some of the Torres Strait islands that run all the way to the waters of Papua New Guinea. Ryan's running strong on opposing the "PNG solution", pointing out that people can walk from Papua to Australian territory at low tide, so it ain't much of a solution.
"I'm going to pop up there, to Thursday Island", says Ryan. "It takes time but I said I'd visit the whole of my electorate. I'll fly meself up there, up Tuesday, back Thursday." Four weeks into an election which has circled Western Sydney and Brisbane like water round a drain, and I was tempted to ask to hitch along. But Thursday Island is a thousand kilometres from Cairns, and I remembered the great lie of the map of Australia, the idea that Brisbane is somehow in the north. It's actually dead centre. You need to keep reminding yourself that it's as far from Melbourne to Brisbane as it is from Brisbane to Cairns, and then that much again up to the top end. We are vast, we contain multitudes."I'm going to pop up there, to Thursday Island", says Ryan. "It takes time but I said I'd visit the whole of my electorate. I'll fly meself up there, up Tuesday, back Thursday." Four weeks into an election which has circled Western Sydney and Brisbane like water round a drain, and I was tempted to ask to hitch along. But Thursday Island is a thousand kilometres from Cairns, and I remembered the great lie of the map of Australia, the idea that Brisbane is somehow in the north. It's actually dead centre. You need to keep reminding yourself that it's as far from Melbourne to Brisbane as it is from Brisbane to Cairns, and then that much again up to the top end. We are vast, we contain multitudes.
I remembered a moment from the UK election in 2010, when poor old Gordon Brown sealed his fate in the northern town of Rochdale, after an encounter with an old-school Labour voter who wanted to complain about the influx of East Europeans. Brown memorably climbed into his car, lapel mike from an interview still on, and called her a "bigoted woman". By the time the story hit, Brown had already bounced across to another city, and then back to London. He had covered most of the country in an afternoon. Australia is the size of the US. But the US has an 11 month election campaign. Ours lasts five weeks, the same as the UK, a place that could fit comfortably into Victoria, our smallest mainland state.I remembered a moment from the UK election in 2010, when poor old Gordon Brown sealed his fate in the northern town of Rochdale, after an encounter with an old-school Labour voter who wanted to complain about the influx of East Europeans. Brown memorably climbed into his car, lapel mike from an interview still on, and called her a "bigoted woman". By the time the story hit, Brown had already bounced across to another city, and then back to London. He had covered most of the country in an afternoon. Australia is the size of the US. But the US has an 11 month election campaign. Ours lasts five weeks, the same as the UK, a place that could fit comfortably into Victoria, our smallest mainland state.
And it struck me how foolish these barnstorming instacampaigns are, for a country which goes from the seething megacity of Western Sydney to the strange half-Green half happy-clappy-Christian ruritania of Tasmania, the endless black-clad post-modern architecture festival that is Melbourne, and then up to cattle and cane country in far north Queensland and across to the parched mining towns of the centre and the Aboriginal communities, either a 100 years old or 50,000, depending on how you figure it, to places like Broome and Perth, which tried to break away as an independent nation in 1924, and really still are.And it struck me how foolish these barnstorming instacampaigns are, for a country which goes from the seething megacity of Western Sydney to the strange half-Green half happy-clappy-Christian ruritania of Tasmania, the endless black-clad post-modern architecture festival that is Melbourne, and then up to cattle and cane country in far north Queensland and across to the parched mining towns of the centre and the Aboriginal communities, either a 100 years old or 50,000, depending on how you figure it, to places like Broome and Perth, which tried to break away as an independent nation in 1924, and really still are.
What chance is there of a real national conversation in five weeks? How are we to even begin to understand each other? We have an election period the same as the UK, yet we have the size and geographical variation of the US. Common sense would suggest we should extend the process, perhaps with party primaries.What chance is there of a real national conversation in five weeks? How are we to even begin to understand each other? We have an election period the same as the UK, yet we have the size and geographical variation of the US. Common sense would suggest we should extend the process, perhaps with party primaries.
Yet were one to suggest that, it would prove a rare moment of near-total unity across the country. It would be a resounding no, especially given that we've all had to be dragged to this election kicking and screaming, and have powered through it with gritted teeth. When the first debate became bogged down in the near-tedium of journalistic Q&A, and the vacuum began to be filled with gaffes – whether Abbott should play "hot or not" with his own candidates, whether Rudd is rude to his TV crew – it became faintly possible that this might be the first election in history to be wrapped up early on the Duckworth-Lewis system.Yet were one to suggest that, it would prove a rare moment of near-total unity across the country. It would be a resounding no, especially given that we've all had to be dragged to this election kicking and screaming, and have powered through it with gritted teeth. When the first debate became bogged down in the near-tedium of journalistic Q&A, and the vacuum began to be filled with gaffes – whether Abbott should play "hot or not" with his own candidates, whether Rudd is rude to his TV crew – it became faintly possible that this might be the first election in history to be wrapped up early on the Duckworth-Lewis system.
Though Abbott has managed to make himself more likeable than hitherto, it's all a matter of degree; the former Catholic cold warrior's transformation to ordinary suburban politician has been like Dracula getting a tan. And Rudd is treated, even by the truest of true believers, like a cheating spouse taken back. Everything that looked so wonderful about him once – his folksiness, friendliness and interest in you – now has a different meaning.Though Abbott has managed to make himself more likeable than hitherto, it's all a matter of degree; the former Catholic cold warrior's transformation to ordinary suburban politician has been like Dracula getting a tan. And Rudd is treated, even by the truest of true believers, like a cheating spouse taken back. Everything that looked so wonderful about him once – his folksiness, friendliness and interest in you – now has a different meaning.
The debate between them has been one of impressive complexity but also maddening pseudo-differentiation, as Abbott has neutralised attacks from the left by agreeing to vast swathes of programmes – Gonski, National Disability Insurance, the National Broadband scheme – created by Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Labor, which it calls the worst government in our history. True, the political differences between Labor's "all-fibre" proposal and the Liberals' "to the node" idea are real enough – but they're pretty small compared to, say, the US, where Republican states reject federal public transport funds because "trains are socialist". When, three weeks into the campaign, the Liberals quietly dropped a proposal to rapidly return the budget to surplus, the core difference over the issue of what government should do quietly disappeared.The debate between them has been one of impressive complexity but also maddening pseudo-differentiation, as Abbott has neutralised attacks from the left by agreeing to vast swathes of programmes – Gonski, National Disability Insurance, the National Broadband scheme – created by Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Labor, which it calls the worst government in our history. True, the political differences between Labor's "all-fibre" proposal and the Liberals' "to the node" idea are real enough – but they're pretty small compared to, say, the US, where Republican states reject federal public transport funds because "trains are socialist". When, three weeks into the campaign, the Liberals quietly dropped a proposal to rapidly return the budget to surplus, the core difference over the issue of what government should do quietly disappeared.
Such furious agreement should indicate a society at peace with itself. Yet across Australia what one feels is a pervasive discomfort and dissatisfaction. Making your way through rural Queensland, it manifests as a plaint about cratering prices for farming produce, the vice-like grip of the major supermarket chains, and a feeling of being forgotten and shut out of the boom.Such furious agreement should indicate a society at peace with itself. Yet across Australia what one feels is a pervasive discomfort and dissatisfaction. Making your way through rural Queensland, it manifests as a plaint about cratering prices for farming produce, the vice-like grip of the major supermarket chains, and a feeling of being forgotten and shut out of the boom.
"Why do our potatoes have to be shipped down to Sydney for processing and sent back to us as chips?", one angry woman questioned Katter in a pub on the inland "tablelands", a zone of stunning verdant beauty behind the Cairns coats, a strange but wonderful mix of Shropshire and Florida. Katter tries to answer, but the woman keeps assailing him – "you're just like all the rest" – until he is reduced to bubbling frothing anger."Why do our potatoes have to be shipped down to Sydney for processing and sent back to us as chips?", one angry woman questioned Katter in a pub on the inland "tablelands", a zone of stunning verdant beauty behind the Cairns coats, a strange but wonderful mix of Shropshire and Florida. Katter tries to answer, but the woman keeps assailing him – "you're just like all the rest" – until he is reduced to bubbling frothing anger.
Weeks earlier in Western Sydney, I'd seen the same frustration outside Blacktown, the centre of the vast sprawl of fibro houses, malls and concrete McMansions which takes a harbour city 50 kilometres inland to the Blue Mountains. At Riverton railway station, as Labor member Michelle Rowland, sitting on a 0.9% majority, tried to work up votes from the commuters getting into town on the two trains per hour, Steve had all but tears in his eyes as he described his three-and-a-half hour commute, and the impossibility of combining part-time work, study – an engineering certificate – and getting into home ownership. "I either buy out here and nothing changes or ... well there is no or. I can't afford a place closer in."Weeks earlier in Western Sydney, I'd seen the same frustration outside Blacktown, the centre of the vast sprawl of fibro houses, malls and concrete McMansions which takes a harbour city 50 kilometres inland to the Blue Mountains. At Riverton railway station, as Labor member Michelle Rowland, sitting on a 0.9% majority, tried to work up votes from the commuters getting into town on the two trains per hour, Steve had all but tears in his eyes as he described his three-and-a-half hour commute, and the impossibility of combining part-time work, study – an engineering certificate – and getting into home ownership. "I either buy out here and nothing changes or ... well there is no or. I can't afford a place closer in."
Rowland, an ample woman wrapped up in earthtone knits and a lifelong Laborista, is about as different a candidate to Katter as you could find, but she's getting the same sort of complaints. You find it everywhere. Dig a little deeper into complaints about corrupt politicians or "boat people", and you find a series of more concrete concerns, a sense that people aren't getting a fair share, that things are going backwards.Rowland, an ample woman wrapped up in earthtone knits and a lifelong Laborista, is about as different a candidate to Katter as you could find, but she's getting the same sort of complaints. You find it everywhere. Dig a little deeper into complaints about corrupt politicians or "boat people", and you find a series of more concrete concerns, a sense that people aren't getting a fair share, that things are going backwards.
This pervasive feeling drives many politicians to distraction. In public, they try and manage these feelings, mindful of Paul Keating's exasperated outburst in 1993 as he was assailed by angry citizens on talkback radio: "what are these people going on about?". The remark probably was the start of Labor's long slide towards loss in the 1996 election. In private, they seethe – at complaints about rising costs, about squeezed lives, and a promise that seems to be slipping away. There is no rising cost of living, they point out. Study after study shows that. But everyone feels there is, and it feeds a deep anxiety about public debt, and the feeling that Australian prosperity may be about to depart.This pervasive feeling drives many politicians to distraction. In public, they try and manage these feelings, mindful of Paul Keating's exasperated outburst in 1993 as he was assailed by angry citizens on talkback radio: "what are these people going on about?". The remark probably was the start of Labor's long slide towards loss in the 1996 election. In private, they seethe – at complaints about rising costs, about squeezed lives, and a promise that seems to be slipping away. There is no rising cost of living, they point out. Study after study shows that. But everyone feels there is, and it feeds a deep anxiety about public debt, and the feeling that Australian prosperity may be about to depart.
Indeed, this mixture of prosperity and anxiety is so distinctive that sociologists Andrew Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald have called it "the Australian paradox" in a now-classic 2005 paper. But it's a measure of the partial nature of this country's debate about itself that the Australian paradox receives little discussion in, well, Australia. Indeed one of the few serious treatments of it here has been by Labor MP and economist Andrew Leigh, who argues that it doesn't exist. Indeed, this mixture of prosperity and anxiety is so distinctive that sociologists Andrew Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald have called it "the Australian paradox" in a now-classic 2005 paper. But it's a measure of the partial nature of this country's debate about itself that the Australian paradox receives little discussion in, well, Australia. Indeed one of the few serious treatments of it here has been by Labor MP and economist Andrew Leigh, who argues that it doesn't exist. 
What the "what are people going on about" crowd continually miss is the signal mark of a consumer society, the process by which luxuries get transformed into necessities, desires into needs. Were that process an export industry, Australia's future would be assured, because no-one has done that better than us in the last 40 years. From the early 1900s to the 1980s, Australian life was dominated by a more collectivist sense of life, a more modest range of ambitions, a culture set by the combination of centralised wage-fixing, protectionism, and a small higher-education sector.What the "what are people going on about" crowd continually miss is the signal mark of a consumer society, the process by which luxuries get transformed into necessities, desires into needs. Were that process an export industry, Australia's future would be assured, because no-one has done that better than us in the last 40 years. From the early 1900s to the 1980s, Australian life was dominated by a more collectivist sense of life, a more modest range of ambitions, a culture set by the combination of centralised wage-fixing, protectionism, and a small higher-education sector.
The Hawke-Keating governments dismantled much of that, and allowed for a different cultural process to take place, for better and worse – more individualistic but also more dynamic, more outward-looking and ambitious but also atomised and fearful. In the diaries he published after he left politics, Mark Latham wrote about driving across Western Sydney, his lifelong home, and feeling disturbed at the rows of McMansions, concrete homes like fortresses, families huddled away from each other. That is a somewhat mordant take on what is nevertheless the underlying process that the country has yet to tackle, or even much talk about. The cost of living "rises" because the statistical indicators can't keep up with the things – gadgets, entertainment, big toys – that people now regard as their right. There's no reason why they shouldn't, but it means that even a slight slowing in economic growth begins to be perceived as a disaster.The Hawke-Keating governments dismantled much of that, and allowed for a different cultural process to take place, for better and worse – more individualistic but also more dynamic, more outward-looking and ambitious but also atomised and fearful. In the diaries he published after he left politics, Mark Latham wrote about driving across Western Sydney, his lifelong home, and feeling disturbed at the rows of McMansions, concrete homes like fortresses, families huddled away from each other. That is a somewhat mordant take on what is nevertheless the underlying process that the country has yet to tackle, or even much talk about. The cost of living "rises" because the statistical indicators can't keep up with the things – gadgets, entertainment, big toys – that people now regard as their right. There's no reason why they shouldn't, but it means that even a slight slowing in economic growth begins to be perceived as a disaster.
That's one reason why Australia has now become the country where dumping governments that deliver prosperity has become the norm – in 1996, 2007 and almost certainly this Saturday. Both Howard and Rudd have lived by it and died by it.That's one reason why Australia has now become the country where dumping governments that deliver prosperity has become the norm – in 1996, 2007 and almost certainly this Saturday. Both Howard and Rudd have lived by it and died by it.
Of course, that prosperity has fallen unevenly. In the Indigenous communities of Thursday Island, for example, the Australian paradox is that their communities remain afflicted by poor health and lack of opportunity in the most prosperous country in the world. But such groups – the indigenous, rural whites, welfare recipients – individually lack the numerical power to exercise much political leverage. Historically, such groups have little connection and little sympathy for each other. Whoever wins on Saturday, such groups – from the squeezed dairy farmers outside Cairns, to single mothers in Blacktown to Yuendemu in the very centre of the country – will have to find common cause if their voices are to be heard in the boomtown.Of course, that prosperity has fallen unevenly. In the Indigenous communities of Thursday Island, for example, the Australian paradox is that their communities remain afflicted by poor health and lack of opportunity in the most prosperous country in the world. But such groups – the indigenous, rural whites, welfare recipients – individually lack the numerical power to exercise much political leverage. Historically, such groups have little connection and little sympathy for each other. Whoever wins on Saturday, such groups – from the squeezed dairy farmers outside Cairns, to single mothers in Blacktown to Yuendemu in the very centre of the country – will have to find common cause if their voices are to be heard in the boomtown.
Politics in Australia is now aimed almost exclusively at the rising middle classes, and therein lies its paradox – one that even cheery populists like Katter can't easily satisfy. The difficulty for any political leader taking power is that politics alone cannot satisfy the complex challenges most Australians face in life, love and the pursuit of happiness. Rudd has been a victim of his own worst tendencies, but he has also been a victim of that process too. How Abbott handles those challenges will define the man, the era and the country – vast, beautiful and loved, northern red deserts and misty Tasmanian forests, pioneer of universal suffrage and the living wage, the stump-jump-plough and the bionic ear.Politics in Australia is now aimed almost exclusively at the rising middle classes, and therein lies its paradox – one that even cheery populists like Katter can't easily satisfy. The difficulty for any political leader taking power is that politics alone cannot satisfy the complex challenges most Australians face in life, love and the pursuit of happiness. Rudd has been a victim of his own worst tendencies, but he has also been a victim of that process too. How Abbott handles those challenges will define the man, the era and the country – vast, beautiful and loved, northern red deserts and misty Tasmanian forests, pioneer of universal suffrage and the living wage, the stump-jump-plough and the bionic ear.
Despite his personal political history, Abbott has presented himself as a unifying figure. Should he win, so will he be judged in the years to come.Despite his personal political history, Abbott has presented himself as a unifying figure. Should he win, so will he be judged in the years to come.
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