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Global politics: always the national angle Global politics: always the national angle
(12 days later)
Norway and Australia are about as far apart geographically as two countries can be. But both have significant things in common all the same. Both are developed nations with established welfare states that have come through the global economic downturn in unusually good order. Norway's economy is growing at 2.6%, while Australia's has now notched 22 successive years of expansion. Many other developed nations can only look on in envy.Norway and Australia are about as far apart geographically as two countries can be. But both have significant things in common all the same. Both are developed nations with established welfare states that have come through the global economic downturn in unusually good order. Norway's economy is growing at 2.6%, while Australia's has now notched 22 successive years of expansion. Many other developed nations can only look on in envy.
Unusually, Norway and Australia have also been governed throughout this period of growth by centre-left governments. Both governments face general elections this weekend. Electoral politics in these, as in other, developed countries, are dominated by the adage that "It's the economy, stupid." Win the economic argument, the conventional wisdom goes, and you will win the election, too.Unusually, Norway and Australia have also been governed throughout this period of growth by centre-left governments. Both governments face general elections this weekend. Electoral politics in these, as in other, developed countries, are dominated by the adage that "It's the economy, stupid." Win the economic argument, the conventional wisdom goes, and you will win the election, too.
If that suggests that Norwegian and Australian voters are poised to reward these centre-left incumbents for their management, think again. Opinion polls suggest that the centre-right is heading for victory in both countries, not the centre-left. If that turns out to be correct, therefore, any connection between economic performance and electoral success may not be as mechanistic as some believe.If that suggests that Norwegian and Australian voters are poised to reward these centre-left incumbents for their management, think again. Opinion polls suggest that the centre-right is heading for victory in both countries, not the centre-left. If that turns out to be correct, therefore, any connection between economic performance and electoral success may not be as mechanistic as some believe.
But what else might explain these putative results? If Jens Stoltenberg and Kevin Rudd are both shown the door, some will conclude that incumbency, not economic performance, holds the key. Ever since the financial meltdown, voters in many countries have punished governing parties. In Britain and Spain, the left was thrown out; in France and Italy, the right. By that reasoning, it's the simple bad luck that the downturn happened on their watch that may doom Messrs Stoltenberg and Rudd.But what else might explain these putative results? If Jens Stoltenberg and Kevin Rudd are both shown the door, some will conclude that incumbency, not economic performance, holds the key. Ever since the financial meltdown, voters in many countries have punished governing parties. In Britain and Spain, the left was thrown out; in France and Italy, the right. By that reasoning, it's the simple bad luck that the downturn happened on their watch that may doom Messrs Stoltenberg and Rudd.
In that case, though, how does one explain the fact that Angela Merkel's centre-right government in Germany seems to be processing serenely toward re-election in two weeks' time? The downturn has happened on her watch, too. Yet Mrs Merkel, like Stephen Harper in Canada, seems to be unaffected by the anti–incumbency factor.In that case, though, how does one explain the fact that Angela Merkel's centre-right government in Germany seems to be processing serenely toward re-election in two weeks' time? The downturn has happened on her watch, too. Yet Mrs Merkel, like Stephen Harper in Canada, seems to be unaffected by the anti–incumbency factor.
Others may conclude that the problem is on the centre-left. Maybe voters in Norway, Germany and Australia, like others before them, have lost confidence in the parties of the left, whether they are in office or not. Yet this, in turn, fails to explain Barack Obama's re-election or Enrico Letta's government in Italy.Others may conclude that the problem is on the centre-left. Maybe voters in Norway, Germany and Australia, like others before them, have lost confidence in the parties of the left, whether they are in office or not. Yet this, in turn, fails to explain Barack Obama's re-election or Enrico Letta's government in Italy.
There is a commonsense conclusion to this. Authoritative attempts to put every country in the same explanatory frame should come with a health warning. A global crisis takes national forms, in which economic success, incumbency in the downturn and ideological credibility all matter, but in changing combinations. This may be intellectually frustrating, but it is also reassuringly messy and human.There is a commonsense conclusion to this. Authoritative attempts to put every country in the same explanatory frame should come with a health warning. A global crisis takes national forms, in which economic success, incumbency in the downturn and ideological credibility all matter, but in changing combinations. This may be intellectually frustrating, but it is also reassuringly messy and human.
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