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| 3 Cities in Running for 2020 Olympics Have Shortcomings | 3 Cities in Running for 2020 Olympics Have Shortcomings |
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| BUENOS AIRES — The recent trend of the International Olympic Committee and FIFA, the organizer of soccer’s World Cup, has been to award the planet’s two largest sporting events to cities, countries or regions that have never hosted the global competitions. | BUENOS AIRES — The recent trend of the International Olympic Committee and FIFA, the organizer of soccer’s World Cup, has been to award the planet’s two largest sporting events to cities, countries or regions that have never hosted the global competitions. |
| If that mind-set holds, Istanbul might seem to have the edge over Madrid and Tokyo on Saturday, when about 100 delegates of the Olympic committee will choose the host city for the 2020 Summer Games. | If that mind-set holds, Istanbul might seem to have the edge over Madrid and Tokyo on Saturday, when about 100 delegates of the Olympic committee will choose the host city for the 2020 Summer Games. |
| But all three candidate cities pose risks, and it is impossible to know which will prevail in a secret ballot. It is mere guesswork to determine the favorite, a lesson that Paris starkly learned when it was widely expected to win the 2012 Summer Games and then lost to London. | But all three candidate cities pose risks, and it is impossible to know which will prevail in a secret ballot. It is mere guesswork to determine the favorite, a lesson that Paris starkly learned when it was widely expected to win the 2012 Summer Games and then lost to London. |
| “You ought to be able to throw the names into a jar and say, ‘Well, this may not be my first choice, but I’m not worried that they’ll be able to do it,’ ” said Dick Pound, an I.O.C. delegate from Montreal. “But none of these are perfect by any means.” | “You ought to be able to throw the names into a jar and say, ‘Well, this may not be my first choice, but I’m not worried that they’ll be able to do it,’ ” said Dick Pound, an I.O.C. delegate from Montreal. “But none of these are perfect by any means.” |
| Making its fifth bid, Istanbul would offer a transcontinental Games that straddle Europe and Asia and place the Olympics for the first time in a predominantly Muslim country. It has a robust economy, widespread public support and a young population. That city’s selection would follow the choice of Beijing in 2008 to situate the Games in China and the selection of Rio de Janeiro to put the 2016 Olympics in South America. | Making its fifth bid, Istanbul would offer a transcontinental Games that straddle Europe and Asia and place the Olympics for the first time in a predominantly Muslim country. It has a robust economy, widespread public support and a young population. That city’s selection would follow the choice of Beijing in 2008 to situate the Games in China and the selection of Rio de Janeiro to put the 2016 Olympics in South America. |
| Istanbul would allow the I.O.C. to keep pace with the global perspective of FIFA, which sent the 2010 World Cup to Africa with the selection of South Africa and awarded soccer’s 2018 world championship for the first time to Russia and the 2022 World Cup to Qatar in the Middle East. | Istanbul would allow the I.O.C. to keep pace with the global perspective of FIFA, which sent the 2010 World Cup to Africa with the selection of South Africa and awarded soccer’s 2018 world championship for the first time to Russia and the 2022 World Cup to Qatar in the Middle East. |
| “If the I.O.C. chose Istanbul, they would be making history,” Hasan Arat, a businessman and former basketball player who heads the Istanbul bid, said in a telephone interview. “It would be the first step of the Olympic movement to come to this region, this territory. The legacy would be huge.” | “If the I.O.C. chose Istanbul, they would be making history,” Hasan Arat, a businessman and former basketball player who heads the Istanbul bid, said in a telephone interview. “It would be the first step of the Olympic movement to come to this region, this territory. The legacy would be huge.” |
| However, Istanbul’s chances were considered to have suffered a setback when the police responded harshly to antigovernment protests there in June. The protests evolved into a wider movement against what critics called the autocratic style of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected here as Istanbul makes its final pitch to Olympic delegates. | However, Istanbul’s chances were considered to have suffered a setback when the police responded harshly to antigovernment protests there in June. The protests evolved into a wider movement against what critics called the autocratic style of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected here as Istanbul makes its final pitch to Olympic delegates. |
| The demonstrations, along with the sentencing in August of dozens of military officials, politicians, journalists and others in a plot to overthrow the government, further exposed the divide between Erdogan’s Islamist-inspired government and Turkey’s secularists. | The demonstrations, along with the sentencing in August of dozens of military officials, politicians, journalists and others in a plot to overthrow the government, further exposed the divide between Erdogan’s Islamist-inspired government and Turkey’s secularists. |
| Though the protests have subsided, they have left the I.O.C. delegates to contemplate seven years ahead of time what Turkey’s political situation might be in 2020. | Though the protests have subsided, they have left the I.O.C. delegates to contemplate seven years ahead of time what Turkey’s political situation might be in 2020. |
| Istanbul’s candidacy has also been left uncertain by the war in neighboring Syria and a possible military intervention there by the United States; a doping scandal that ensnared more than 30 track and field athletes in Turkey; possible transportation shortcomings; and spectator indifference to the recent under-20 world soccer championships in Turkey. | Istanbul’s candidacy has also been left uncertain by the war in neighboring Syria and a possible military intervention there by the United States; a doping scandal that ensnared more than 30 track and field athletes in Turkey; possible transportation shortcomings; and spectator indifference to the recent under-20 world soccer championships in Turkey. |
| Regarding the protests, Arat said, “This is normal in democratic countries; it can happen in New York or London.” He said the suspension of athletes for doping offenses showed that Turkey had a “zero-tolerance policy.” | Regarding the protests, Arat said, “This is normal in democratic countries; it can happen in New York or London.” He said the suspension of athletes for doping offenses showed that Turkey had a “zero-tolerance policy.” |
| But this unsettled time for Istanbul’s candidacy coincides with concerns about construction delays and transportation issues as Brazil prepares to host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, and with widespread protests in the West against antigay legislation in Russia as the 2014 Winter Games approach in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. | But this unsettled time for Istanbul’s candidacy coincides with concerns about construction delays and transportation issues as Brazil prepares to host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, and with widespread protests in the West against antigay legislation in Russia as the 2014 Winter Games approach in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. |
| Jacques Rogge is stepping down as president of the I.O.C., and is expected to be replaced, after a vote, by Thomas Bach, a German lawyer. At this transitional moment, the I.O.C. could be looking for a more risk-averse choice for 2020. | Jacques Rogge is stepping down as president of the I.O.C., and is expected to be replaced, after a vote, by Thomas Bach, a German lawyer. At this transitional moment, the I.O.C. could be looking for a more risk-averse choice for 2020. |
| “You do sort of get crisis fatigue at some point,” Pound said. | “You do sort of get crisis fatigue at some point,” Pound said. |
| Tokyo has attempted to use familiarity and reliability to position itself as the most capable host. Tsunekazu Takeda, president of the Japanese Olympic Committee, has been telling reporters that with Tokyo, the 2020 Games would be in a “safe pair of hands.” He added, “In these uncertain times, Tokyo 2020 offers certainty.” | Tokyo has attempted to use familiarity and reliability to position itself as the most capable host. Tsunekazu Takeda, president of the Japanese Olympic Committee, has been telling reporters that with Tokyo, the 2020 Games would be in a “safe pair of hands.” He added, “In these uncertain times, Tokyo 2020 offers certainty.” |
| Tokyo hosted the 1964 Summer Games, and Japan hosted the Winter Olympics in Sapporo in 1972 and Nagano in 1998. Japan also co-hosted the 2002 World Cup with South Korea. It offers skill at organizing major events, a sense of economic security in a time of global political and financial uncertainty, a $4.5 billion guaranteed war chest, plenty of hotel rooms for visitors and a dependable transportation system. | Tokyo hosted the 1964 Summer Games, and Japan hosted the Winter Olympics in Sapporo in 1972 and Nagano in 1998. Japan also co-hosted the 2002 World Cup with South Korea. It offers skill at organizing major events, a sense of economic security in a time of global political and financial uncertainty, a $4.5 billion guaranteed war chest, plenty of hotel rooms for visitors and a dependable transportation system. |
| The I.O.C. may view the 2020 vote as a chance to help Japan, a sturdy Olympic partner, recover from the devastating earthquake and tsunami there in 2011. | The I.O.C. may view the 2020 vote as a chance to help Japan, a sturdy Olympic partner, recover from the devastating earthquake and tsunami there in 2011. |
| But the Tokyo bid, too, has its shortcomings, including concerns of another possible environmental disaster as the stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant continues to leak radioactive water into the Pacific. Polls have also shown that popular support in Tokyo is somewhat lower than in Istanbul and Madrid. | But the Tokyo bid, too, has its shortcomings, including concerns of another possible environmental disaster as the stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant continues to leak radioactive water into the Pacific. Polls have also shown that popular support in Tokyo is somewhat lower than in Istanbul and Madrid. |
| And the I.O.C. could be reluctant to award another Games to Asia so soon, given that the 2008 Olympics took place in Beijing and the 2018 Winter Games will be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea. | And the I.O.C. could be reluctant to award another Games to Asia so soon, given that the 2008 Olympics took place in Beijing and the 2018 Winter Games will be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea. |
| Until early summer, Madrid was thought to be lagging behind the other bids, given Spain’s recession-battered economy and high unemployment rate that is 26.3 percent over all and more than 50 percent for young people; a government corruption scandal; and a poor record on doping. | |
| But I.O.C. delegates have said that Madrid’s bid might have been resuscitated in a July presentation by Crown Prince Felipe, a former Olympian. Madrid has emphasized that the 2020 Games could help reduce unemployment in Spain; that after the city’s failed bids for the 2012 and 2016 Summer Games, 80 percent of its competition sites are built; and that it will need an infrastructure budget of only $1.9 billion, compared with $19 billion for Istanbul. | |
| Rogge said it was important that questions be asked about the candidacies of Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo, given that the Olympic Games “are not organized in a vacuum” and that the 2020 Olympics will take place seven years after the host city is chosen by I.O.C. delegates. | Rogge said it was important that questions be asked about the candidacies of Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo, given that the Olympic Games “are not organized in a vacuum” and that the 2020 Olympics will take place seven years after the host city is chosen by I.O.C. delegates. |
| “It is absolutely legitimate that the members look forward, not just what is the situation today, but what could be the situation seven years from now,” Rogge said. “Other aspects, financial, social or whatever, have to be taken into account.” | “It is absolutely legitimate that the members look forward, not just what is the situation today, but what could be the situation seven years from now,” Rogge said. “Other aspects, financial, social or whatever, have to be taken into account.” |