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Russia local elections: Putin's opponents gear up for poll challenge Russia local elections: Putin's opponents gear up for poll challenge
(14 days later)
They are not about to take the Kremlin or get a toehold in national government. But Russia's opposition – hounded, scattered, prosecuted and airbrushed out of political life – will this weekend mount its most vigorous electoral challenge since Vladimir Putin took office 13 years ago.They are not about to take the Kremlin or get a toehold in national government. But Russia's opposition – hounded, scattered, prosecuted and airbrushed out of political life – will this weekend mount its most vigorous electoral challenge since Vladimir Putin took office 13 years ago.
Three vociferously anti-Kremlin candidates, including the scourge of the ruling party, Alexei Navalny, have suddenly found themselves in an unusual position: on the ballot sheet, on the stump and gathering enough support to show that antipathy for Putin and his party of power remains strong, in metropolitan Russia at least.Three vociferously anti-Kremlin candidates, including the scourge of the ruling party, Alexei Navalny, have suddenly found themselves in an unusual position: on the ballot sheet, on the stump and gathering enough support to show that antipathy for Putin and his party of power remains strong, in metropolitan Russia at least.
While Navalny, freed pending an appeal after a farcical trial that culminated in a five-year jail sentence in July, is running for Moscow mayor, ousted opposition MP Gennady Gudkov is standing for governor of the Moscow region. A thousand miles further east, Yevgeny Roizman, an anti-drug activist, former MP, poet and off-road racing champion, is taking on the governor's protege for mayor of Yekaterinburg and perhaps has the best chance of all three to win.While Navalny, freed pending an appeal after a farcical trial that culminated in a five-year jail sentence in July, is running for Moscow mayor, ousted opposition MP Gennady Gudkov is standing for governor of the Moscow region. A thousand miles further east, Yevgeny Roizman, an anti-drug activist, former MP, poet and off-road racing champion, is taking on the governor's protege for mayor of Yekaterinburg and perhaps has the best chance of all three to win.
It's not quite a democratic spring. Ruling party candidates, with their access to financial and administrative advantages including state-controlled television, remain in pole position in virtually all the races this weekend.It's not quite a democratic spring. Ruling party candidates, with their access to financial and administrative advantages including state-controlled television, remain in pole position in virtually all the races this weekend.
"These are not fair elections," Navalny, who made his name as a street protest leader and anti-corruption activist, said at a meeting with foreign press last week. "They are competitive, but not fair.""These are not fair elections," Navalny, who made his name as a street protest leader and anti-corruption activist, said at a meeting with foreign press last week. "They are competitive, but not fair."
The Navalny campaign plans to mobilise 11,000 observers to try to prevent the ballot-stuffing it expects on Sunday. When asked what he would do if incumbent Sergei Sobyanin wins, Navalny said he and his supporters "won't be silent".The Navalny campaign plans to mobilise 11,000 observers to try to prevent the ballot-stuffing it expects on Sunday. When asked what he would do if incumbent Sergei Sobyanin wins, Navalny said he and his supporters "won't be silent".
"I'm not planning an Orange Revolution, but I'm also not planning to congratulate Sobyanin," he said."I'm not planning an Orange Revolution, but I'm also not planning to congratulate Sobyanin," he said.
But if Navalny gets a million votes, or about 20% of the electorate, it will bolster Russia's flagging opposition movement and show that "relatively fair" elections are possible in the capital, according to well-known political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin. An independent poll at the end of August showed that Navalny has the support of 18% of decided voters.But if Navalny gets a million votes, or about 20% of the electorate, it will bolster Russia's flagging opposition movement and show that "relatively fair" elections are possible in the capital, according to well-known political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin. An independent poll at the end of August showed that Navalny has the support of 18% of decided voters.
"That will ruin the narrative that the opposition is marginal … That will be a scandal, that means Moscow doesn't like the regime," Oreshkin said."That will ruin the narrative that the opposition is marginal … That will be a scandal, that means Moscow doesn't like the regime," Oreshkin said.
Gudkov believes that the very fact that candidates from the street opposition movement have been allowed to participate in the elections shows a new trend towards greater competition. "The regime had to compromise like never before. They were forced to not remove us [from the elections] in Moscow and the Moscow region," he told the Guardian.Gudkov believes that the very fact that candidates from the street opposition movement have been allowed to participate in the elections shows a new trend towards greater competition. "The regime had to compromise like never before. They were forced to not remove us [from the elections] in Moscow and the Moscow region," he told the Guardian.
Meanwhile, if Roizman wins in Yekaterinburg, it will mean that a political "renewal" is possible outside of relatively progressive Moscow, Oreshkin said.Meanwhile, if Roizman wins in Yekaterinburg, it will mean that a political "renewal" is possible outside of relatively progressive Moscow, Oreshkin said.
"If he wins at least 30% of the vote, it will be the first regional city of a million people where it's possible to have a heavyweight politician who is not entirely part of the system, not entirely subjugated to the regime," he said."If he wins at least 30% of the vote, it will be the first regional city of a million people where it's possible to have a heavyweight politician who is not entirely part of the system, not entirely subjugated to the regime," he said.
Putin moved in 2004 to roll back democracy in Russia, scrapping mayoral elections in Moscow and St Petersburg and all elections for governors in Russia's 89 regions. But then-president Dmitry Medvedev restored the regional elections last year in what was seen as a concession to the 2011-12 mass protest movement.Putin moved in 2004 to roll back democracy in Russia, scrapping mayoral elections in Moscow and St Petersburg and all elections for governors in Russia's 89 regions. But then-president Dmitry Medvedev restored the regional elections last year in what was seen as a concession to the 2011-12 mass protest movement.
In June, acting mayor Sobyanin called the early vote and helped Navalny register in what was seen as an attempt to gain legitimacy and political status by beating the opposition leader.In June, acting mayor Sobyanin called the early vote and helped Navalny register in what was seen as an attempt to gain legitimacy and political status by beating the opposition leader.
But at the same time, other opposition candidates elsewhere have not been allowed to run. The six other gubernatorial races and 16 regional legislative elections scheduled for Sunday include candidates that pose no real rhetorical or electoral threat to Kremlin-backed candidates.But at the same time, other opposition candidates elsewhere have not been allowed to run. The six other gubernatorial races and 16 regional legislative elections scheduled for Sunday include candidates that pose no real rhetorical or electoral threat to Kremlin-backed candidates.
Gudkov, Navalny and Roizman all face significant obstacles to winning or holding office. A recent survey by a state-run pollster predicted Gudkov would garner only 5.5% of the vote in Moscow region, where most agree he doesn't have enough time (the snap election was called only in June) or resources to gain ground against the Kremlin-backed acting governor.Gudkov, Navalny and Roizman all face significant obstacles to winning or holding office. A recent survey by a state-run pollster predicted Gudkov would garner only 5.5% of the vote in Moscow region, where most agree he doesn't have enough time (the snap election was called only in June) or resources to gain ground against the Kremlin-backed acting governor.
Meanwhile, both Navalny and Roizman have come up against Russia's notoriously politicised legal system.Meanwhile, both Navalny and Roizman have come up against Russia's notoriously politicised legal system.
Navalny was only allowed to run after unexpectedly being freed pending an appeal against his five-year prison sentence for embezzlement, and Roizman has faced criminal investigations related to his controversial techniques for fighting drug addiction and alleged ties to organised crime.Navalny was only allowed to run after unexpectedly being freed pending an appeal against his five-year prison sentence for embezzlement, and Roizman has faced criminal investigations related to his controversial techniques for fighting drug addiction and alleged ties to organised crime.
The recent claim by the tax administration of Montenegro that Navalny registered a firm there in 2007 has added fuel to critics' claims that he himself could be guilty of some of the corrupt practices he campaigns against, allegations repeated by Putin in an interview with the Associated Press and state-controlled Channel One this week.The recent claim by the tax administration of Montenegro that Navalny registered a firm there in 2007 has added fuel to critics' claims that he himself could be guilty of some of the corrupt practices he campaigns against, allegations repeated by Putin in an interview with the Associated Press and state-controlled Channel One this week.
"This is not a case of an opposition leader simply being seized because he criticises the regime, here there is something for a court and law enforcement organs in general to think and talk about," Putin said without referring to Navalny by name, as is his wont."This is not a case of an opposition leader simply being seized because he criticises the regime, here there is something for a court and law enforcement organs in general to think and talk about," Putin said without referring to Navalny by name, as is his wont.
Navalny has also drawn criticism for his openly nationalist views and his neoliberal economic programme, and some even see him as a Kremlin project to build a new loyal opposition.Navalny has also drawn criticism for his openly nationalist views and his neoliberal economic programme, and some even see him as a Kremlin project to build a new loyal opposition.
Yet, Navalny has already changed Russian politics with his innovative campaign, which has reintroduced many of the features of western elections: a well-organised volunteer campaign, town hall-style meetings with voters and even high-flying fundraising dinners (Navalny recently presented his economic policy ideas to investment bankers during a £150-a-plate dinner at Moscow's Ritz Carlton hotel). His aggressive street campaigning, not seen in a major election here since the mid-1990s, has forced his opponents to hold their own meetings with voters. Most notably, Sobyanin recently met with voters at a metro station on the southern outskirts of Moscow and, in an apparent response to Navalny's frequent accusations, began his remarks with an explanation of what he had been doing to fight corruption.Yet, Navalny has already changed Russian politics with his innovative campaign, which has reintroduced many of the features of western elections: a well-organised volunteer campaign, town hall-style meetings with voters and even high-flying fundraising dinners (Navalny recently presented his economic policy ideas to investment bankers during a £150-a-plate dinner at Moscow's Ritz Carlton hotel). His aggressive street campaigning, not seen in a major election here since the mid-1990s, has forced his opponents to hold their own meetings with voters. Most notably, Sobyanin recently met with voters at a metro station on the southern outskirts of Moscow and, in an apparent response to Navalny's frequent accusations, began his remarks with an explanation of what he had been doing to fight corruption.
In addition, almost 200 businessmen, many of them internet entrepreneurs, have openly supported Navalny by signing a "social contract" with him, bucking the tendency for business to shun public politics following the imprisonment of former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003.In addition, almost 200 businessmen, many of them internet entrepreneurs, have openly supported Navalny by signing a "social contract" with him, bucking the tendency for business to shun public politics following the imprisonment of former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003.
During his punishing schedule of campaign stops, Navalny has eloquently tied residents' everyday problems to widespread corruption. In a recent stump speech to a small crowd of voters on the northern outskirts of Moscow, Navalny went down a laundry list of issues – problems with utility costs, healthcare, education and traffic – rooting each in the kind of shocking corruption statistics that have long been his calling card. (He also didn't hide his "moderate nationalist" platform seeking to drastically reduce immigration.)During his punishing schedule of campaign stops, Navalny has eloquently tied residents' everyday problems to widespread corruption. In a recent stump speech to a small crowd of voters on the northern outskirts of Moscow, Navalny went down a laundry list of issues – problems with utility costs, healthcare, education and traffic – rooting each in the kind of shocking corruption statistics that have long been his calling card. (He also didn't hide his "moderate nationalist" platform seeking to drastically reduce immigration.)
"He's a historic person," said local pensioner Boris Morozov after the meeting. "Everything is already decided (in this election), but this meeting will at least open people's eyes a little bit to what is happening.""He's a historic person," said local pensioner Boris Morozov after the meeting. "Everything is already decided (in this election), but this meeting will at least open people's eyes a little bit to what is happening."
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