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ST. PETERSBURG, Russia — For 15 seconds, they put on their game faces, smiled for the cameras and pretended that they were not the diplomatic equivalent of estranged spouses.
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia — President Obama and his advisers view the coming decision on military action against Syria as a potential turning point that could effectively define his foreign policy for his final three years in office.
President Obama arrived at the Group of 20 summit here on Thursday on the defensive as he sought international support for a strike on Syria and confronted the meeting’s host and chief skeptic, President Vladimir V. Putin, after a period of deepening tension between the two.
As he lobbied world leaders at a summit meeting here in person and members of Congress back in Washington by telephone on Thursday, Mr. Obama argued that a failure to act would be an abdication of the so-called indispensable role played by the United States since the end of the cold war, leaving no one to step in when international bodies fail to.
All eyes were on the famed presidential limousine as it pulled up to Constantine Palace with Mr. Putin waiting at the entrance. Emerging from the armored vehicle, flown in from Washington as is typical for presidential foreign trips, Mr. Obama strode up to the Russian president whom he recently had compared to a slacker student, shook his hand and offered a few words of chitchat, seemingly, as some speculated, about the lovely weather or the grand palace.
In private, Mr. Obama and his team see the votes as a guidepost for the rest of his presidency well beyond the immediate question of launching missiles at Syrian military targets. If Congress does not support a relatively modest action in response to a chemical attack that killed more than 1,400 people in Syria, Obama advisers said, the president will not be able to count on support for virtually any use of force.
Mr. Putin greeted him with equally businesslike cordiality and then the two turned to the assembled journalists to pose momentarily with broader camera-ready smiles. Neither grabbed the other’s arm or patted a back, as they often do with fellow leaders. It was proper, it was protocol but it was not warm. And then within a blink of an eye, the most anticipated encounter of the annual two-day summit was over and Mr. Obama headed inside the palace while Mr. Putin waited to greet the next visiting leader.
Although Mr. Obama has asserted that he has the authority to order the strike on Syria even if Congress says no, White House aides consider that almost unthinkable. As a practical matter, it would leave him more isolated than ever and seemingly in defiance of the public’s will at home. As a political matter, it would almost surely set off an effort in the House to impeach him, which even if it went nowhere could be distracting and draining.
No wonder that body language was so absorbing on Thursday, especially after Mr. Obama last month noted Mr. Putin’s “slouch” and said he gave the appearance of a “bored kid” in school. Given that the American president had canceled a one-on-one meeting with Mr. Putin in Moscow and likewise declined any separate session here in St. Petersburg in protest of the temporary asylum granted to Edward J. Snowden, the former National Security Agency leaker, the brief interaction between the powerful leaders was all there was to measure.
As a result, Mr. Obama would be even more reluctant to order action in the one case that has most preoccupied military planners: the development of a nuclear bomb by Iran. Any operation to take out Iranian nuclear facilities would require a far more extensive commitment of military force than the missile strike envisioned against Syria. Moreover, a rejection of the Syria strike would make Mr. Obama less likely to leave behind a robust force in Afghanistan after combat troops are withdrawn at the end of 2014.
After the arrivals, the two presidents sat at the table inside the ornate hall, separated by the leaders of Australia and Indonesia, and were not spotted engaging in separate conversation, although White House aides said they might easily talk unscripted on the sidelines of the meeting at some point. It did not go unnoticed as Mr. Putin read a lengthy introductory statement about financial stability and economic growth that Mr. Obama, listening to a translation through an earphone, looked a little bored himself.
“I think this vote determines the future of his foreign policy regardless of whether it’s a yes vote or a no vote,” said Rosa Brooks, a former top Defense Department official under Mr. Obama. “If he ekes out a yes vote, he’s beholden to the Republicans.” But, she added, “if he gets a no vote and stands down on Syria, he’s permanently weakened and will indeed probably be more inward looking.”
Mr. Obama joined other leaders of the Group of 20 nations at a time when he is preparing to launch a military strike against the Syrian government in retaliation for what the Americans have concluded was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 1,400 last month. In the face of sharp opposition from Mr. Putin, Mr. Obama recognized that he would not find consensus here in St. Petersburg but hoped at least to bolster allies who do favor action.
Already a sometimes-reluctant warrior, Mr. Obama pulled out all American troops from Iraq, ordered a withdrawal from Afghanistan and lately has talked about scaling back his aggressive use of drones in Pakistan and eventually ending the war against terrorism. Some critics have argued that in subcontracting the Syria decision to Congress, Mr. Obama was looking for an excuse not to act and someone else to blame.
The Russians were not the only ones in St. Petersburg skeptical about Mr. Obama’s Syria intentions. China’s leadership backs Russia in resisting action by the United Nations Security Council and warned on Thursday that military intervention would drive up oil prices and slow down economic growth. “Military action would definitely have a negative impact on the global economy, especially on the oil price,” Zhu Guangyao, the Chinese vice finance minister, told reporters here. Italy’s prime minister likewise expressed his disagreement with a strike.
White House officials deny that, saying what the president really wants is a united front. But to opponents of a Syria strike, a retreat from further use of force in the wake of a Congressional rejection would finally reverse what they see as excessive militarism since Sept. 11, 2001. The restraint on future military flexibility that the White House professes to fear, in this view, would be something to celebrate.
Beyond France, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Mr. Obama may find few here who will vocally back a limited military strike against the government of President Bashar al-Assad. White House officials said other countries are supportive without being as public about it or at least would agree that Mr. Assad needs to be held accountable in some fashion. But Mr. Obama had no plans to seek a formal endorsement from the leaders.
It may be that the dire talk from the White House reflects a strategy to muscle Congress into line: Vote against this, the message being, and you vote against protecting Israel from Iran. And it may be that even if White House officials believe it today, Mr. Obama would still act to stop developments in the Iranian nuclear program or to address some other threatening circumstance if the moment ever arrived.
“We would not anticipate every member of the G-20 agreeing about the way forward in Syria, particularly given the Russian position,” Benjamin J. Rhodes, the president’s deputy national security adviser, told reporters on Air Force One en route here. Mr. Obama will “explain our current thinking” and explore what “political and diplomatic support they may express for our efforts to hold the Syrian regime accountable.”
“Obviously defeat would be a blow to presidential leadership but I think not fatal to a decision to attack Iran because the stakes are different,” said Gary Samore, a former national security aide to Mr. Obama. “The danger is that Iran might misread Congressional opposition to a Syria attack as a green light to move toward building nukes, which would force Obama’s hand.”
At a news conference in Stockholm on Wednesday, Mr. Obama acknowledged that “we’ve kind of hit a wall” in relations and he did little to paper over the strains. “Where we’ve got differences, we should be candid about them, try to manage those differences, but not sugarcoat them,” he said.
Nancy Soderberg, who was a diplomat at the United Nations under President Bill Clinton, said a negative vote would cut Congress out of foreign policy. “Rather than tying the president’s hands for the next three years, a failure in the House would leave him more reliant on his inner circle and a few key world leaders in making the difficult choices between force and diplomacy,” she said.
Mr. Putin said this week that he and Mr. Obama were national leaders, not personal friends. “President Obama was not elected by the American people to be pleasant to Russia,” he said in the interview. “Neither was your humble servant elected by the people of Russia to be pleasant to someone.” But both, he added, would represent global interests.
But Mr. Obama and his aides are trying to thread a needle at home and abroad. Even as they argue that the stakes are profound, they assure that the intervention would be modest. While Mr. Obama argues that nothing less than world credibility is at stake, he is aiming only a “shot across the bow” to deter further use of chemical weapons not to end a civil war that has killed 100,000. That makes this situation different from, say, the circumstances surrounding Kosovo in the 1990s, when the United States led NATO forces to stop mass slaughter.
During public remarks on Thursday, Mr. Putin made little mention of Syria, focusing on global economic issues and touting trade agreements. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said the issue did come up with Mr. Putin’s meeting with the leaders of China, India and Brazil, who warned that an international intervention would have global economic impacts as well. “Among the factors capable of negatively affecting the global economy are no doubt the consequences of outside interference in Syria’s affairs,” Mr. Peskov said.
Mr. Obama presented his case to leaders gathered here from the Group of 20 nations, but found as much wariness as he has in Congress. While France, Turkey and Saudi Arabia support such a strike, most of the others were more cautious, and the meeting’s host, President Vladimir V. Putin, was openly hostile.
Mr. Peskov reiterated the Kremlin’s insistence that only the United Nations Security Council can authorize military action — not the American Congress or any other national legislature — and he maintained that Russia was not blocking action in the body, despite three Russian vetoes of resolutions dealing with Syria.
Chinese officials warned that a strike would raise oil prices and upset the global economy, while Italy’s prime minister said he worried that it widen the conflict. From the Vatican, Pope Francis wrote a letter urging the leaders “to lay aside the futile pursuit of a military solution.”
“The Russian side is not blocking the deliberations of other countries within the framework of the United Nations Security Council,” he said. “It is trying to encourage its partners, including its partners in Washington, to objectively consider the situation and not to make decisions before the verdict of the U.N. excepts who are working in Syria.”
Mr. Obama, who met separately with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, was hoping mainly to win support for the idea of holding Syria responsible even if not for his method.
While only briefly greeting Mr. Putin upon arrival, Mr. Obama met Thursday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, who has tried to stay out of the Syria dispute. “I certainly look forward to continuously and closely working with you to improve the situation on the ground,” Mr. Abe said obliquely as the meeting started. Mr. Obama then opened the private session with an extensive discussion of Syria, aides said.
The Group of 20 meeting put on full display the increasingly awkward and tense relationship between Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin. To protest Russia’s decision to grant temporary asylum to Edward J. Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who disclosed secret programs, Mr. Obama last month canceled a separate one-on-one meeting in Moscow and declined even a private session here in St. Petersburg.
Mr. Obama planned separate meetings Friday with President François Hollande of France, his strongest supporter on Syria, and President Xi Jinping of China. He has no plans to sit down with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, who supported Mr. Obama’s plan to strike Syria but then called off any participation after losing a parliamentary vote.
As he arrived at Constantine Palace, Mr. Obama was greeted by Mr. Putin, and the two shook hands and smiled in a businesslike if not warm encounter lasting about 15 seconds. They did not pat backs or grab elbows as leaders often do, and at the opening session they sat separated by the leaders of Australia and Indonesia, with nothing to say to each other as long as the cameras were on.
The summit meeting was being held amid tight security with thousands of additional police officers called in from around the country. The leaders were meeting in the suburb of Strelna at Constantine Palace, a run-down, abandoned estate on the Gulf of Finland started by Peter the Great but never really finished until Mr. Putin took up the project a dozen years ago and converted it into a glittering showpiece for a re-emerging Russia.
Diving into the meetings, Mr. Obama tried to manage dual audiences, the one in front of him representing the world’s greatest powers and the one back home that holds the fate of his foreign policy in its hands.
The leaders had dinner Thursday night at Peterhof, Peter’s summer palace, which is often compared to Versailles. Mr. Obama planned to raise Syria during the meal, which was closed to the news media.
“One thing for Congress to consider,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, his deputy national security adviser, “is the message that this debate sends about U.S. leadership around the world — that the U.S. for decades has played the role of undergirding the global security architecture and enforcing international norms. And we do not want to send a message that the United States is getting out of that business in any way.”
The formal agenda of the meeting focuses on ways of promoting economic growth through investment, transparency and effective regulation. By one measure, the 19 nations plus the European Union represented here control 85 percent of the world’s economy and their sessions have become important annual gatherings since Mr. Obama took office.
This year’s meeting takes place against a different context than many of those in the past, without the sort of urgent crisis atmosphere that dominated previous talks. The United States economy is growing at a regular though modest pace. But many of the leaders arrived here nervous about the prospect of the Federal Reserve easing up on its stimulus program and worried about Chinese growth.
American officials said they hoped to use the meeting to press their counterparts to stimulate more domestic demand and create more jobs. They also want the gathered leaders to tackle international tax evasion by standardizing disclosure requirements for individuals and financial institutions.
“We’ve got to stay focused on creating jobs and growth,” Mr. Obama said in Stockholm. “That’s going to be critically important not only for our economies but also to maintain stability in many of our democracies that are under severe stress at this point.”
