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Afghanistan security forces' readiness for Nato withdrawal still a hard sell Afghanistan security forces' readiness for Nato withdrawal still a hard sell
(14 days later)
After more than a decade of fighting, Nato combat forces will all be gone from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, leaving the country's soldiers and police to fight the battle-hardened Taliban alone.After more than a decade of fighting, Nato combat forces will all be gone from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, leaving the country's soldiers and police to fight the battle-hardened Taliban alone.
A small foreign contingent may remain in a few bases around the country, but on a non-combat mission, with a mandate only to train Afghan forces.A small foreign contingent may remain in a few bases around the country, but on a non-combat mission, with a mandate only to train Afghan forces.
Commanders and politicians have been keen to emphasise that the Afghans will be able to take on a insurgent force that battled Nato to a stalemate, and in June marked the official handover of security control for the whole country to the army and police.Commanders and politicians have been keen to emphasise that the Afghans will be able to take on a insurgent force that battled Nato to a stalemate, and in June marked the official handover of security control for the whole country to the army and police.
"I believe the Afghans are, in fact, ready to take the lead right now," General Joseph Dunford, the top US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, said a few hours after the ceremony."I believe the Afghans are, in fact, ready to take the lead right now," General Joseph Dunford, the top US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, said a few hours after the ceremony.
But minutes later he admitted they still lacked air capacity, were badly integrated and needed more heavy weapons and bomb detection and disposal skills.But minutes later he admitted they still lacked air capacity, were badly integrated and needed more heavy weapons and bomb detection and disposal skills.
The Afghan army and police are riddled with problems from drug abuse to soaring casualties and annual dropout rate in its tens of thousands. Nato commanders admit that Afghan forces also struggle to gather intelligence and do their own basic logistics.The Afghan army and police are riddled with problems from drug abuse to soaring casualties and annual dropout rate in its tens of thousands. Nato commanders admit that Afghan forces also struggle to gather intelligence and do their own basic logistics.
But the timeline for the withdrawal was fixed years ago, and as the army and police must take over – ready or not – there is a strong military and political imperative to present them as prepared and capable.But the timeline for the withdrawal was fixed years ago, and as the army and police must take over – ready or not – there is a strong military and political imperative to present them as prepared and capable.
A 2014 end to the foreign mission in Afghanistan was first mooted by President Hamid Karzai in 2009, and endorsed at a Nato conference in Lisbon the following year by governments weary of a war that showed no signs of winding down despite a heavy toll in lives and funds.A 2014 end to the foreign mission in Afghanistan was first mooted by President Hamid Karzai in 2009, and endorsed at a Nato conference in Lisbon the following year by governments weary of a war that showed no signs of winding down despite a heavy toll in lives and funds.
But after thousands of deaths, and billions of dollars spent, there were few politicians willing to admit that they were leaving the war because they and their constituents no longer had the appetite to fight it rather than because the conflict had ended. In Kabul there are constant worries about the impact on morale if troops and civilians feel abandoned by their former backers.But after thousands of deaths, and billions of dollars spent, there were few politicians willing to admit that they were leaving the war because they and their constituents no longer had the appetite to fight it rather than because the conflict had ended. In Kabul there are constant worries about the impact on morale if troops and civilians feel abandoned by their former backers.
And so a security handover driven by a political imperative is being presented, in part, as a response to the improving capacity of the Afghan security forces.And so a security handover driven by a political imperative is being presented, in part, as a response to the improving capacity of the Afghan security forces.
The political theatre reached a peak earlier this year at the 18 June ceremony to mark "milestone 13", the handover of security control. Karzai and Barack Obama had agreed it would happen before the summer, so officials chose almost the last day of spring for the ceremony.The political theatre reached a peak earlier this year at the 18 June ceremony to mark "milestone 13", the handover of security control. Karzai and Barack Obama had agreed it would happen before the summer, so officials chose almost the last day of spring for the ceremony.
Security was so tight that diplomats and journalists were flown across the city in helicopters, to hear speeches about how effective the army and police were at protecting the country. Western military officials were ordered into civilian clothes or dress uniform, so the television images showed Afghan viewers familiar only with combat fatigues a crowd that appeared to already have been stripped of foreign military.Security was so tight that diplomats and journalists were flown across the city in helicopters, to hear speeches about how effective the army and police were at protecting the country. Western military officials were ordered into civilian clothes or dress uniform, so the television images showed Afghan viewers familiar only with combat fatigues a crowd that appeared to already have been stripped of foreign military.
Politicians hailed the completion of a security transfer that Dunford later admitted was still very much underway in the most dangerous parts of the country. The handover has been a rolling process and the final areas chosen for the final – "tranche five" –stage, which make up about a quarter of Afghanistan's 398 districts, had not yet been transferred.Politicians hailed the completion of a security transfer that Dunford later admitted was still very much underway in the most dangerous parts of the country. The handover has been a rolling process and the final areas chosen for the final – "tranche five" –stage, which make up about a quarter of Afghanistan's 398 districts, had not yet been transferred.
"At the national level, primary responsibility for security is with the ministry of defence and ministry of interior, and I am in support. In some of the tranche five areas, we still have security responsibility as a result of not completing the process," Dunford told a news conference at coalition headquarters in Kabul."At the national level, primary responsibility for security is with the ministry of defence and ministry of interior, and I am in support. In some of the tranche five areas, we still have security responsibility as a result of not completing the process," Dunford told a news conference at coalition headquarters in Kabul.
That is not to say there have been improvements, particularly since Nato began focusing seriously on training in 2009, and the long, slow security transfer began in 2011. The police and army, now 350,000strong, are almost unrecognisable from the small, fragmented forces of several years ago.That is not to say there have been improvements, particularly since Nato began focusing seriously on training in 2009, and the long, slow security transfer began in 2011. The police and army, now 350,000strong, are almost unrecognisable from the small, fragmented forces of several years ago.
Some areas are particularly strong. Afghans are brave, even when ill-equipped, and special forces have an impressive record despite the recent departure of a police general who commanded many of them.Some areas are particularly strong. Afghans are brave, even when ill-equipped, and special forces have an impressive record despite the recent departure of a police general who commanded many of them.
But that does not mean they are ready to fight alone. Dunford told the Guardian in a recent interview that they may need help until as late as 2018.But that does not mean they are ready to fight alone. Dunford told the Guardian in a recent interview that they may need help until as late as 2018.
With the west set on taking home all but a few troops, and the Taliban equally set on continuing the fight, both Kabul and Nato have little choice but to focus on convincing the people of Afghanistan and voters back home that Afghan forces are ready to continue the fight.With the west set on taking home all but a few troops, and the Taliban equally set on continuing the fight, both Kabul and Nato have little choice but to focus on convincing the people of Afghanistan and voters back home that Afghan forces are ready to continue the fight.
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