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Scottish households 'would be £2,000 better off if voters reject independence' Scottish households 'would be £2,000 better off if voters reject independence'
(17 days later)
Scottish households will be about £2,000 better off and freer to work and trade with the rest of the UK if voters reject independence, George Osborne will claim on Tuesday.Scottish households will be about £2,000 better off and freer to work and trade with the rest of the UK if voters reject independence, George Osborne will claim on Tuesday.
In a speech to oil industry executives in Aberdeen, the chancellor is expected to argue that Scotland would enjoy far greater benefits from staying within the UK economy than by putting a new border in place after independence.In a speech to oil industry executives in Aberdeen, the chancellor is expected to argue that Scotland would enjoy far greater benefits from staying within the UK economy than by putting a new border in place after independence.
Osborne is also due to release a paper from the Treasury estimating that remaining within the UK would boost real incomes in Scotland by 4% over the next 30 years, equivalent to £5bn in cash terms, through extra trade, labour migration and cross-border investment.Osborne is also due to release a paper from the Treasury estimating that remaining within the UK would boost real incomes in Scotland by 4% over the next 30 years, equivalent to £5bn in cash terms, through extra trade, labour migration and cross-border investment.
The paper suggests that even under EU trade rules, a new border would introduce regulatory, tax and legal differences that could cut trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK, currently worth £85bn, by as much as 80%. Labour migration might fall from about 40,000 people a year to as few as 10,000.The paper suggests that even under EU trade rules, a new border would introduce regulatory, tax and legal differences that could cut trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK, currently worth £85bn, by as much as 80%. Labour migration might fall from about 40,000 people a year to as few as 10,000.
In a conclusion provoking derision from the Scottish government, the paper says even if the two countries share sterling and the Bank of England, as first minister Alex Salmond proposes, there would be a significant drag on growth for Scotland.In a conclusion provoking derision from the Scottish government, the paper says even if the two countries share sterling and the Bank of England, as first minister Alex Salmond proposes, there would be a significant drag on growth for Scotland.
It will state: "Replacing the current relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK with a relationship similar to that of euro area member states would create significant headwinds to Scottish growth."It will state: "Replacing the current relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK with a relationship similar to that of euro area member states would create significant headwinds to Scottish growth."
Salmond and the Scottish government insist that independence would have immediate and significant economic benefits, allowing it to tailor its taxes and investment policies to domestic needs and benefit Scottish businesses.Salmond and the Scottish government insist that independence would have immediate and significant economic benefits, allowing it to tailor its taxes and investment policies to domestic needs and benefit Scottish businesses.
Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said the chancellor's claims about the long-term economic benefit of the union were laughable, given that the Institute of Fiscal Studies had said Osborne's austerity drive would cut each British household's income by £1,800 by 2015.Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said the chancellor's claims about the long-term economic benefit of the union were laughable, given that the Institute of Fiscal Studies had said Osborne's austerity drive would cut each British household's income by £1,800 by 2015.
Describing the Treasury figure as a "fantasy promise", Sturgeon said: "People are growing increasingly tired of the no campaign's 'Project Fear' approach and will not take kindly to being lectured by a deeply unpopular Tory chancellor.Describing the Treasury figure as a "fantasy promise", Sturgeon said: "People are growing increasingly tired of the no campaign's 'Project Fear' approach and will not take kindly to being lectured by a deeply unpopular Tory chancellor.
"A majority of people in Scotland want to see economic decisions taken in Scotland for Scotland, not by Westminster governments that Scotland did not vote for."A majority of people in Scotland want to see economic decisions taken in Scotland for Scotland, not by Westminster governments that Scotland did not vote for.
"As an independent country, in a single market not just with the rest of the UK but with the European Union – a position threatened by Westminster – we will finally be able to make our own decisions, to support our key industries, our workforce and to counteract the economic imbalance caused by London-based economic policy.""As an independent country, in a single market not just with the rest of the UK but with the European Union – a position threatened by Westminster – we will finally be able to make our own decisions, to support our key industries, our workforce and to counteract the economic imbalance caused by London-based economic policy."
Scottish ministers also point to Scotland's significant inward investment record under Salmond's leadership. It is now the UK's second most successful region for foreign investment, after London and the south-east.Scottish ministers also point to Scotland's significant inward investment record under Salmond's leadership. It is now the UK's second most successful region for foreign investment, after London and the south-east.
UK ministers counter that these investments take place because Scotland shares in the UK's open and heavily integrated markets, and are helped substantially by the UK's international diplomatic reach and influence.UK ministers counter that these investments take place because Scotland shares in the UK's open and heavily integrated markets, and are helped substantially by the UK's international diplomatic reach and influence.
The Treasury report, the latest in a series of analyses by Whitehall civil servants challenging the merits of independence, argues that international experience proves that even a loose and open border like that between the US and Canada stifles trade.The Treasury report, the latest in a series of analyses by Whitehall civil servants challenging the merits of independence, argues that international experience proves that even a loose and open border like that between the US and Canada stifles trade.
One study estimates that trade between neighbouring US and Canadian states is 44% lower than it would be without a border. Canadian provinces trade 20 times more with other Canadian provinces than they do with neighbouring US states.One study estimates that trade between neighbouring US and Canadian states is 44% lower than it would be without a border. Canadian provinces trade 20 times more with other Canadian provinces than they do with neighbouring US states.
It is also expected to produce similar evidence of a "border effect" on German trade with its immediate neighbour Austria, which shares close ethnic and language ties with Germany and is also part of the EU.It is also expected to produce similar evidence of a "border effect" on German trade with its immediate neighbour Austria, which shares close ethnic and language ties with Germany and is also part of the EU.
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