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Emerging from the black hole, a monumental Abbott sucker punch Emerging from the black hole, a monumental Abbott sucker punch
(17 days later)
Labor is clinging to the hope that Tony Abbott has a $70bn costings black hole that will scare the bejeezus out of voters even if the Coalition leader succeeds in keeping its bleak contents hidden from the electorate until the bitter end.Labor is clinging to the hope that Tony Abbott has a $70bn costings black hole that will scare the bejeezus out of voters even if the Coalition leader succeeds in keeping its bleak contents hidden from the electorate until the bitter end.
But here’s a sobering thought for the ALP: what if a black hole is not what the Coalition leader is hiding? What if Abbott’s reluctance to lay out his full costings, and a year-by-year breakdown of spending and saving, is because it will show he won’t return the budget to surplus, or start to pay down debt any faster than Labor intends to. What if it’s because the Coalition budget might fall even further into deficit in the early years before the new company tax levy and some of the already announced spending cuts start to kick in, precisely because Abbott isn’t intending big cuts to frontline services.But here’s a sobering thought for the ALP: what if a black hole is not what the Coalition leader is hiding? What if Abbott’s reluctance to lay out his full costings, and a year-by-year breakdown of spending and saving, is because it will show he won’t return the budget to surplus, or start to pay down debt any faster than Labor intends to. What if it’s because the Coalition budget might fall even further into deficit in the early years before the new company tax levy and some of the already announced spending cuts start to kick in, precisely because Abbott isn’t intending big cuts to frontline services.
It would expose the utter cynicism of the Coalition’s “budget emergency”, “we’re drowning in debt” attack of the past three years. But it would also leave Labor’s election attack looking pretty hollow.It would expose the utter cynicism of the Coalition’s “budget emergency”, “we’re drowning in debt” attack of the past three years. But it would also leave Labor’s election attack looking pretty hollow.
Labor refuses to let go of its belief that the black hole is out there. It has built its campaign so determinedly on the allegation that the Coalition is hiding secret cuts to health and education that it has spent far less time talking about the actual cuts Abbott has already laid out in the open for all to see – including to the schoolkids bonus and low-income superannuation and tax breaks for small business.Labor refuses to let go of its belief that the black hole is out there. It has built its campaign so determinedly on the allegation that the Coalition is hiding secret cuts to health and education that it has spent far less time talking about the actual cuts Abbott has already laid out in the open for all to see – including to the schoolkids bonus and low-income superannuation and tax breaks for small business.
Rudd still wasn’t letting go of the $70bn scare in his launch on Sunday, referring again to the “$70bn of massive cuts that risk throwing the entire economy into recession because we are living through fragile global economic times”, and advising voters that “if you don’t understand how Mr Abbott’s $70bn of cuts will affect your job, your school, your hospital, then don’t vote for him”.Rudd still wasn’t letting go of the $70bn scare in his launch on Sunday, referring again to the “$70bn of massive cuts that risk throwing the entire economy into recession because we are living through fragile global economic times”, and advising voters that “if you don’t understand how Mr Abbott’s $70bn of cuts will affect your job, your school, your hospital, then don’t vote for him”.
But just Sunday morning on ABC’s Insiders, Abbott had said again that what he had under wraps was “relatively modest savings” (confirming in the process that it would be late in the final week that voters would finally see his costings).But just Sunday morning on ABC’s Insiders, Abbott had said again that what he had under wraps was “relatively modest savings” (confirming in the process that it would be late in the final week that voters would finally see his costings).
“I don't think anyone is going to think at the end of this week, ‘My God there is this massive fiscal squeeze coming.’ If anything, what they will think is there has been a massive scare campaign, a massive campaign of exaggerations and even lies from the Labor party,” Abbott said.“I don't think anyone is going to think at the end of this week, ‘My God there is this massive fiscal squeeze coming.’ If anything, what they will think is there has been a massive scare campaign, a massive campaign of exaggerations and even lies from the Labor party,” Abbott said.
It wasn’t so much Abbott’s costings black hole, but Labor’s political black hole that was on display in Brisbane on Sunday.It wasn’t so much Abbott’s costings black hole, but Labor’s political black hole that was on display in Brisbane on Sunday.
As Anthony Albanese and Rudd tried to rev up the dispirited troops by listing Labor’s record of achievement in government, it was difficult not to think how little political credit they’d got for any of it, and how much Labor’s own leadership turmoil was to blame.As Anthony Albanese and Rudd tried to rev up the dispirited troops by listing Labor’s record of achievement in government, it was difficult not to think how little political credit they’d got for any of it, and how much Labor’s own leadership turmoil was to blame.
As Hawke and Keating, the older and greyer Labor prime ministers of the past once again came in to a Labor campaign launch to a heroes’ welcome, the absence of the more recent red-headed leader was all the more noticeable.As Hawke and Keating, the older and greyer Labor prime ministers of the past once again came in to a Labor campaign launch to a heroes’ welcome, the absence of the more recent red-headed leader was all the more noticeable.
As Rudd made one last big pitch to the blue-collar vote – the apprentices, the Tafe students, the battlers who switch when Australia changes government – it was interesting to remember that Abbott hadn’t really made them big promises on anything, other than ending the chaos and infighting of the other side.As Rudd made one last big pitch to the blue-collar vote – the apprentices, the Tafe students, the battlers who switch when Australia changes government – it was interesting to remember that Abbott hadn’t really made them big promises on anything, other than ending the chaos and infighting of the other side.
And as Rudd ploughed through detailed promises on instant tax write-offs and Tafe funding deals it was hard not to wonder whether an electorate exhausted with politics would be able to absorb any of it in the campaign’s final days.And as Rudd ploughed through detailed promises on instant tax write-offs and Tafe funding deals it was hard not to wonder whether an electorate exhausted with politics would be able to absorb any of it in the campaign’s final days.
If Abbott is telling the truth (and so close to actually revealing the information why wouldn’t he be?) it amounts to a monumental political sucker punch.If Abbott is telling the truth (and so close to actually revealing the information why wouldn’t he be?) it amounts to a monumental political sucker punch.
Having eroded Labor’s ability to claim credit for its economic management with constant claims that the budget deficit represents a crisis and the stimulus spending during the financial crisis was not needed, it would be the ultimate irony if the Coalition’s own fiscal policy turned out to be not that scary, but really pretty much more of the same.Having eroded Labor’s ability to claim credit for its economic management with constant claims that the budget deficit represents a crisis and the stimulus spending during the financial crisis was not needed, it would be the ultimate irony if the Coalition’s own fiscal policy turned out to be not that scary, but really pretty much more of the same.
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