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Syria intervention: after the UK vote France's next move is crucial Syria intervention: after the UK vote France's next move is crucial
(21 days later)
In the runup to the intervention in Iraq in 2003, Tony Blair was commonly depicted as George W Bush's "poodle", the "yes-man" eager to make the case for war to facilitate a US-led project. At the same time, the conservative French president, Jacques Chirac, emphatically pledged to veto a second UN resolution and France stayed out of the conflict. Ten years on, has history repeated itself? No. With the Socialist party leader, François Hollande, in command, France will do what the US and Britain will do or … won't do. Charles de Gaulle must be turning in his grave.In the runup to the intervention in Iraq in 2003, Tony Blair was commonly depicted as George W Bush's "poodle", the "yes-man" eager to make the case for war to facilitate a US-led project. At the same time, the conservative French president, Jacques Chirac, emphatically pledged to veto a second UN resolution and France stayed out of the conflict. Ten years on, has history repeated itself? No. With the Socialist party leader, François Hollande, in command, France will do what the US and Britain will do or … won't do. Charles de Gaulle must be turning in his grave.
If Barack Obama's and David Cameron's stand on Syria appears to be fluctuating and rather incoherent, so is Hollande's. To be fair, there's consistency in Hollande's ambition: to stick as close as possible to Obama and Cameron and go along with the Anglo-American tide.If Barack Obama's and David Cameron's stand on Syria appears to be fluctuating and rather incoherent, so is Hollande's. To be fair, there's consistency in Hollande's ambition: to stick as close as possible to Obama and Cameron and go along with the Anglo-American tide.
Although doing little to stop the bloodshed over the past two years, France finally took a stand on Tuesday. Strangely, Hollande declared that France was ready to "punish" those behind the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The somewhat moralistic tone of the president's intervention raised a few eyebrows in diplomatic circles. Is it really the role of a president to "punish" war criminals? Shouldn't they be brought to trial according to international law? Shouldn't the first task of a democratic government be to work on ending the conflict?Although doing little to stop the bloodshed over the past two years, France finally took a stand on Tuesday. Strangely, Hollande declared that France was ready to "punish" those behind the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The somewhat moralistic tone of the president's intervention raised a few eyebrows in diplomatic circles. Is it really the role of a president to "punish" war criminals? Shouldn't they be brought to trial according to international law? Shouldn't the first task of a democratic government be to work on ending the conflict?
On Wednesday, Cameron was forced into a humiliating climbdown in Westminster over his decision to launch air strikes on Syria at the weekend. Hours later, Hollande also toned down his bellicose stand. Air strikes and punishment were no longer on the immediate agenda. The president no longer seemed convinced that a military intervention was "urgent". He declared that France had to give the Syrian opposition its political and humanitarian assistance; however, he fell short of detailing what this support would be.On Wednesday, Cameron was forced into a humiliating climbdown in Westminster over his decision to launch air strikes on Syria at the weekend. Hours later, Hollande also toned down his bellicose stand. Air strikes and punishment were no longer on the immediate agenda. The president no longer seemed convinced that a military intervention was "urgent". He declared that France had to give the Syrian opposition its political and humanitarian assistance; however, he fell short of detailing what this support would be.
On Thursday night, David Cameron failed to pass a motion that would have authorised military action against Syria in principle. The prime minister said afterwards that he would not override the will of parliament. This new dramatic development further isolates Barack Obama, and makes Hollande's decision even more crucial. Whatever France decides will resonate far beyond its borders. And although Hollande used tough talk today in his interview with Le Monde newspaper, when he said France's resolve had not changed and that he was not ruling out strikes on Syria, the most likely scenario is that Hollande will begin to respond to events in the UK and start talking less about military intervention.On Thursday night, David Cameron failed to pass a motion that would have authorised military action against Syria in principle. The prime minister said afterwards that he would not override the will of parliament. This new dramatic development further isolates Barack Obama, and makes Hollande's decision even more crucial. Whatever France decides will resonate far beyond its borders. And although Hollande used tough talk today in his interview with Le Monde newspaper, when he said France's resolve had not changed and that he was not ruling out strikes on Syria, the most likely scenario is that Hollande will begin to respond to events in the UK and start talking less about military intervention.
Unlike the British prime minister, the French president can go it alone in ordering his troops into action, in accordance with the Bonapartist institutions of the fifth republic. But an opinion poll just published shows that the French public remains opposed to military intervention, by 59% to 41%. The supporters of the president's Socialist party and the Green party back the military strikes. However, the conservative UMP party is mostly opposed.Unlike the British prime minister, the French president can go it alone in ordering his troops into action, in accordance with the Bonapartist institutions of the fifth republic. But an opinion poll just published shows that the French public remains opposed to military intervention, by 59% to 41%. The supporters of the president's Socialist party and the Green party back the military strikes. However, the conservative UMP party is mostly opposed.
So does Hollande have a long-term "political" plan on Syria? If there is one it has not been publicised yet. Political commentators in France have urged him to impose drastic economic sanctions on senior figures within the Assad regime; to launch a diplomatic "confrontation" with Russia; to utilise the international criminal court for crimes against humanity; to begin negotiations with Iran; to arm the Syrian opposition; or to organise a negotiated peace plan in the UN to prepare for the post-Assad era.So does Hollande have a long-term "political" plan on Syria? If there is one it has not been publicised yet. Political commentators in France have urged him to impose drastic economic sanctions on senior figures within the Assad regime; to launch a diplomatic "confrontation" with Russia; to utilise the international criminal court for crimes against humanity; to begin negotiations with Iran; to arm the Syrian opposition; or to organise a negotiated peace plan in the UN to prepare for the post-Assad era.
And Hollande has another factor to consider. On 10 September, trade unions and the left will take to the streets to oppose the government's controversial pension reform. If France gets drawn in to the Syrian quagmire, banners across France might echo a growing opposition to the war with the slogan: "No to war on our pensions!" Over the coming days and weeks, Hollande may find it more and more difficult to enter this conflict. And this may have a significant impact on the actions taken by Britain and the US.And Hollande has another factor to consider. On 10 September, trade unions and the left will take to the streets to oppose the government's controversial pension reform. If France gets drawn in to the Syrian quagmire, banners across France might echo a growing opposition to the war with the slogan: "No to war on our pensions!" Over the coming days and weeks, Hollande may find it more and more difficult to enter this conflict. And this may have a significant impact on the actions taken by Britain and the US.
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