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| Labor's populist policy fixes could turn defeat into demeaning disaster | Labor's populist policy fixes could turn defeat into demeaning disaster |
| (21 days later) | |
| Labor's campaign is teetering somewhere between defeat and demeaning disaster. | Labor's campaign is teetering somewhere between defeat and demeaning disaster. |
| The final week will tell us which one it will choose. At the close of the penultimate week it appears to be veering towards the latter. | The final week will tell us which one it will choose. At the close of the penultimate week it appears to be veering towards the latter. |
| I don't mean a demeaning disaster measured by Labor's self-defeating internal metric of a loss just as bad as looked likely when Julia Gillard was leader, even though that could be the outcome. I mean a demeaning disaster measured by the crazy, populist ideas Labor seems prepared to stoop to in its desperation and the careening course of its campaign. | I don't mean a demeaning disaster measured by Labor's self-defeating internal metric of a loss just as bad as looked likely when Julia Gillard was leader, even though that could be the outcome. I mean a demeaning disaster measured by the crazy, populist ideas Labor seems prepared to stoop to in its desperation and the careening course of its campaign. |
| Let's start with the ALP's "Tony's got horrible hidden spending cuts" attack. This was based on Labor's belief that Tony Abbott was serious in his contention that there was a "budget emergency" that required a rapid return to budget surplus and that he had savings measures ready, but locked away from the scrutiny of the voters. | Let's start with the ALP's "Tony's got horrible hidden spending cuts" attack. This was based on Labor's belief that Tony Abbott was serious in his contention that there was a "budget emergency" that required a rapid return to budget surplus and that he had savings measures ready, but locked away from the scrutiny of the voters. |
| Given the fury of his "debt 'n deficit" rhetoric of the past three years, that may have seemed a reasonable assumption. But even as the ALP ratcheted up the attack, Abbott himself was abandoning the whole budget emergency idea and telling us he couldn't really say when he would deliver a surplus, and that, in effect, his fiscal policy wasn't all that different from Labor's. There may yet be some hidden cuts, but they seem unlikely to be sufficiently scary to turn his political lights out, as Labor's advertising creators were hoping. | Given the fury of his "debt 'n deficit" rhetoric of the past three years, that may have seemed a reasonable assumption. But even as the ALP ratcheted up the attack, Abbott himself was abandoning the whole budget emergency idea and telling us he couldn't really say when he would deliver a surplus, and that, in effect, his fiscal policy wasn't all that different from Labor's. There may yet be some hidden cuts, but they seem unlikely to be sufficiently scary to turn his political lights out, as Labor's advertising creators were hoping. |
| Nonetheless Labor persisted, and in doing so virtually ignored the real cuts the Coalition had laid out – the abolition of the schoolkids bonus ($4.6bn worth of payments to families), the $1.6bn hit on shareholders and self-funded retirees from the Coalition's decision to not count its 1.5% levy as a tax for tax credit purposes, the $3.7bn that won't be paid to low-income earners' superannuation accounts, the $1bn which over the next four years was to be paid in twice-annual supplements to those on unemployment benefits, and the money to be saved by cutting 12,000 public servants. | Nonetheless Labor persisted, and in doing so virtually ignored the real cuts the Coalition had laid out – the abolition of the schoolkids bonus ($4.6bn worth of payments to families), the $1.6bn hit on shareholders and self-funded retirees from the Coalition's decision to not count its 1.5% levy as a tax for tax credit purposes, the $3.7bn that won't be paid to low-income earners' superannuation accounts, the $1bn which over the next four years was to be paid in twice-annual supplements to those on unemployment benefits, and the money to be saved by cutting 12,000 public servants. |
| Certain that other unidentified and much more scary cuts were out there somewhere, but with time running out before polling day, the treasurer, Chris Bowen, and the finance minister, Penny Wong, used the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency costings they had requested from the bureaucracy before the election, based on their best guesses of what the assumptions behind the Coalition costings might be. | Certain that other unidentified and much more scary cuts were out there somewhere, but with time running out before polling day, the treasurer, Chris Bowen, and the finance minister, Penny Wong, used the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency costings they had requested from the bureaucracy before the election, based on their best guesses of what the assumptions behind the Coalition costings might be. |
| Their press conference, led by Rudd, over-reached. If you aren't sure you've costed exactly what your opponent is proposing, you really can't accuse them of fraud. | Their press conference, led by Rudd, over-reached. If you aren't sure you've costed exactly what your opponent is proposing, you really can't accuse them of fraud. |
| When the heads of treasury and finance intervened to clarify that they hadn't actually costed what the Coalition was proposing and to point out the self-evident fact that different assumptions can make a big difference, the exercise backfired, the Coalition quickly pushed the discussion away from costings and on to Labor's credibility. The media preferred that story to a detailed dive into the extent to which the Coalition's actual costings could be questioned and the alleged "hidden cuts" – if they existed – stayed in the bottom drawer. | When the heads of treasury and finance intervened to clarify that they hadn't actually costed what the Coalition was proposing and to point out the self-evident fact that different assumptions can make a big difference, the exercise backfired, the Coalition quickly pushed the discussion away from costings and on to Labor's credibility. The media preferred that story to a detailed dive into the extent to which the Coalition's actual costings could be questioned and the alleged "hidden cuts" – if they existed – stayed in the bottom drawer. |
| Meanwhile, the ALP's "positive" campaign lurched into policies that surprised and horrified even the party faithful. | Meanwhile, the ALP's "positive" campaign lurched into policies that surprised and horrified even the party faithful. |
| Rudd resumed the prime ministership with a narrative about keeping the economy strong after the peak of the mining investment boom. This was, apparently, the "new way" of Labor's original election slogan. | Rudd resumed the prime ministership with a narrative about keeping the economy strong after the peak of the mining investment boom. This was, apparently, the "new way" of Labor's original election slogan. |
| But in the course of the campaign the "new way" has veered crazily towards some very old and long-abandoned ideas. | But in the course of the campaign the "new way" has veered crazily towards some very old and long-abandoned ideas. |
| Ideas like a special economic zone with lower tax rates for the Northern Territory, which was resisted by John Howard and Peter Costello every time it was suggested by the National party on the grounds that it would open up enormous possibilities for tax evasion. | Ideas like a special economic zone with lower tax rates for the Northern Territory, which was resisted by John Howard and Peter Costello every time it was suggested by the National party on the grounds that it would open up enormous possibilities for tax evasion. |
| Or ideas like the very fast train between Brisbane and Melbourne – which has been studied no fewer than three times during this term of government, would cost more than $100bn and would not be completed until 2053, and seems to have been announced mainly as a point of comparison to prove that Tony Abbott's paid parental leave plan was just as crazily expensive. | Or ideas like the very fast train between Brisbane and Melbourne – which has been studied no fewer than three times during this term of government, would cost more than $100bn and would not be completed until 2053, and seems to have been announced mainly as a point of comparison to prove that Tony Abbott's paid parental leave plan was just as crazily expensive. |
| Or, most astonishingly, ideas such as the prime minister becoming suddenly "uneasy" with foreign investment in agricultural land other than as a joint venture. Contrary to everything Labor has said for years, contrary to what has been a bipartisan position from the major parties in defiance of populist fears, many inside Labor are pretty sure this sudden "uneasiness' has nothing to do with the fact that the prime minister grew up on a farm – as he mused during the third leaders' debate – and much more to do with rising desperation and a need for Bob Katter's preferences in Queensland. | Or, most astonishingly, ideas such as the prime minister becoming suddenly "uneasy" with foreign investment in agricultural land other than as a joint venture. Contrary to everything Labor has said for years, contrary to what has been a bipartisan position from the major parties in defiance of populist fears, many inside Labor are pretty sure this sudden "uneasiness' has nothing to do with the fact that the prime minister grew up on a farm – as he mused during the third leaders' debate – and much more to do with rising desperation and a need for Bob Katter's preferences in Queensland. |
| Labor's positive campaign lacks a clear message and its negative campaign has so far failed to bite. Desperately searching for hidden Coalition costings rather than debating what Labor already knows has proven a bad campaigning mistake. But grasping for populist policy "fixes" could mean the looming defeat is made even worse by longer term reputational damage. | Labor's positive campaign lacks a clear message and its negative campaign has so far failed to bite. Desperately searching for hidden Coalition costings rather than debating what Labor already knows has proven a bad campaigning mistake. But grasping for populist policy "fixes" could mean the looming defeat is made even worse by longer term reputational damage. |
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