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| Election 2013: no jackpot for Rudd at Rooty Hill, but a big costing war | Election 2013: no jackpot for Rudd at Rooty Hill, but a big costing war |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| “No questions on asylum seekers,” harrumphed one political observer on Twitter last night after the second federal election peoples’ forum. “I guess boat people aren’t such a big issue in western Sydney after all,” said another. | “No questions on asylum seekers,” harrumphed one political observer on Twitter last night after the second federal election peoples’ forum. “I guess boat people aren’t such a big issue in western Sydney after all,” said another. |
| These observations pretty much miss the point: the asylum seeker issue has many forms in voters’ minds and most of those manifestations relate to the economy. When voters express concern about asylum seekers they’re talking about anxiety over increased pressure on job availability, the cost of living, crowded infrastructure and stretched services. | These observations pretty much miss the point: the asylum seeker issue has many forms in voters’ minds and most of those manifestations relate to the economy. When voters express concern about asylum seekers they’re talking about anxiety over increased pressure on job availability, the cost of living, crowded infrastructure and stretched services. |
| So at the Rooty Hill RSL Club last night voters mostly bypassed proxy issues such as asylum seekers and cut to the chase. They directly asked questions about their priority concerns: jobs, housing, superannuation, health, education and aged care. These are the issues that will decide the election because voters will choose the leader they believe can be relied upon – or ‘trusted’ – to deliver on those issues more responsibly. | So at the Rooty Hill RSL Club last night voters mostly bypassed proxy issues such as asylum seekers and cut to the chase. They directly asked questions about their priority concerns: jobs, housing, superannuation, health, education and aged care. These are the issues that will decide the election because voters will choose the leader they believe can be relied upon – or ‘trusted’ – to deliver on those issues more responsibly. |
| “Trust” has become code in this election (as it has been in others) for “the person I have more confidence in being economically competent”, which is why both leaders have spent much of this election campaign trying to put a dent in the other's perceived competency. | “Trust” has become code in this election (as it has been in others) for “the person I have more confidence in being economically competent”, which is why both leaders have spent much of this election campaign trying to put a dent in the other's perceived competency. |
| That’s why Abbott paints the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government as one of incompetence and omnishambles, addicted to debt and deficit, and responsible for five record deficits after the Howard government’s four record surpluses (while conveniently omitting any mention that those deficits were generated at least in part to protect the Australian economy from the global financial crisis). | That’s why Abbott paints the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government as one of incompetence and omnishambles, addicted to debt and deficit, and responsible for five record deficits after the Howard government’s four record surpluses (while conveniently omitting any mention that those deficits were generated at least in part to protect the Australian economy from the global financial crisis). |
| And it’s why Rudd continued to needle Abbott last night on the release of the Coalition’s costings, hoping to sow doubt in voters’ minds about Abbott's competency and, if not that, what his "true" intentions after the election might be for cutting jobs and services: | |
| If you are going to hit the economy with a massive hit of $70 billion worth of cuts let me tell you there is the risk that will throw the economy, in a delicate time in the global economic environment, into the possibility of recession. | If you are going to hit the economy with a massive hit of $70 billion worth of cuts let me tell you there is the risk that will throw the economy, in a delicate time in the global economic environment, into the possibility of recession. |
| Inconveniently for Rudd, he is one of the past four federal opposition leaders who’ve left their costings until the final days and hours of an election campaign. | Inconveniently for Rudd, he is one of the past four federal opposition leaders who’ve left their costings until the final days and hours of an election campaign. |
| The commonly-proffered reasoning for this tardiness is the process established under the Charter of Budget Honesty. For a policy to be costed by the Departments of Treasury and Finance it must be provided to the prime minister who then requests the departments to do so. No opposition is going to give unannounced policies to the prime minister before releasing them to the public, thereby giving the other side an opportunity to prepare a response in advance. | The commonly-proffered reasoning for this tardiness is the process established under the Charter of Budget Honesty. For a policy to be costed by the Departments of Treasury and Finance it must be provided to the prime minister who then requests the departments to do so. No opposition is going to give unannounced policies to the prime minister before releasing them to the public, thereby giving the other side an opportunity to prepare a response in advance. |
| Admittedly, this is less a legitimate excuse now the Parliamentary Budget Office has been created to help parties prepare their policies for costing before they’re submitted to Treasury and Finance. Nevertheless, the drawing out of policy announcements and associated costings for the duration of an election campaign is a legitimate strategy that’s been used ruthlessly before by both major parties. | Admittedly, this is less a legitimate excuse now the Parliamentary Budget Office has been created to help parties prepare their policies for costing before they’re submitted to Treasury and Finance. Nevertheless, the drawing out of policy announcements and associated costings for the duration of an election campaign is a legitimate strategy that’s been used ruthlessly before by both major parties. |
| It’s another question altogether whether voters deserve to know. Of course they do, but how many really care about that level of detail? How many will read the policy statements or costings? Most voters just want to know which of the alternatives are more dependable, and to some extent they will listen to what each candidate has to say about his opponent. | It’s another question altogether whether voters deserve to know. Of course they do, but how many really care about that level of detail? How many will read the policy statements or costings? Most voters just want to know which of the alternatives are more dependable, and to some extent they will listen to what each candidate has to say about his opponent. |
| Rudd and Labor’s continued pressure for Abbott’s costings have therefore not really been in the interests of voters’ right to know, but in the hope there’s a blunder in the calculations they can exploit to blow Abbott's economic credibility out of the water. Look no further than treasurer Chris Bowen’s revelation today about Abbott’s $10bn “costings black hole”. | Rudd and Labor’s continued pressure for Abbott’s costings have therefore not really been in the interests of voters’ right to know, but in the hope there’s a blunder in the calculations they can exploit to blow Abbott's economic credibility out of the water. Look no further than treasurer Chris Bowen’s revelation today about Abbott’s $10bn “costings black hole”. |
| In the end, it will come down to whose attack or defence is more plausible to voters – the man whose track record is known or the one who claims he has nothing to hide. | In the end, it will come down to whose attack or defence is more plausible to voters – the man whose track record is known or the one who claims he has nothing to hide. |