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Syria crisis: British military chief to set out options for strikes Syria crisis: British military chief to set out options for strikes
(about 5 hours later)
The head of the British military will on Wednesday outline a series of arm's-length options for targeted attacks against Syria that have been refined over several months to minimise the risk of retaliation from President Bashar al-Assad's forces. The head of the British military will on Wednesday outline a series of arm's-length options for targeted attacks against Syria which have been refined over several months to minimise the risk of retaliation from President Bashar al-Assad's forces.
At a meeting of the national security council (NSC), the chief of the defence staff, General Sir Nick Houghton, is expected to tell David Cameron the UK could assist US forces with cruise missile strikes launched from submarines, warships and aircraft against targets such as command-and-control bunkers. At a meeting of the national security council (NSC), the chief of the defence staff, General Sir Nick Houghton, is expected to tell David Cameron the UK could assist US forces with cruise missile strikes launched from submarines, warships and aircraft against targets such as command and control bunkers.
But Houghton is also expected to reiterate the military's misgiving about entering into the conflict even if it can be proved beyond doubt that Assad was behind last week's chemical attack in Ghouta, east of the Syrian capital, Damascus. But Houghton is also expected to reiterate the military's misgivings about entering into the conflict even if it can be proved beyond doubt that Assad was behind last week's chemical attack in Ghouta, east of the Syrian capital, Damascus.
He is likely to highlight the potential for Assad's regime to lash out with attacks of its own that could include attempts to strike Britain's sovereign bases in Cyprus with Scud missiles. He is likely to highlight the potential for Assad's regime to lash out with attacks of its own which could include attempts to strike Britain's sovereign bases in Cyprus with Scud missiles.
"A number of military options will be provided to the prime minister," said one Whitehall source. "They have been worked on for several months. The NSC will then have to ask itself: what will any future attacks actually achieve, and are we prepared for the potential consequences? These are political judgments, not military ones. Our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us a lot about the dangers of getting involved in other people's civil wars.""A number of military options will be provided to the prime minister," said one Whitehall source. "They have been worked on for several months. The NSC will then have to ask itself: what will any future attacks actually achieve, and are we prepared for the potential consequences? These are political judgments, not military ones. Our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us a lot about the dangers of getting involved in other people's civil wars."
Though the Ministry of Defence today refused to be drawn any of these issues, a team of specialists at the UK's Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) in Northwood, north London, is known to have been working on a set of detailed contingency plans, liaising with counterparts in the US military to prepare credible options for action in Syria. Though the Ministry of Defence today refused to be drawn on any of these issues, a team of specialists at the UK's permanent joint headquarters (PJHQ) in Northwood, north London, is known to have been working on a set of detailed contingency plans, liaising with counterparts in the US military to prepare credible options for action in Syria.
Nobody in Washington or London is prepared to countenance "boots on the ground", and an air war against Assad's well-equipped jet fighters and anti-aircraft defences is equally unappealing. So strategists have been looking at ways of hitting a limited number of regime targets over a short period with precision missiles and laser-guided bombs.Nobody in Washington or London is prepared to countenance "boots on the ground", and an air war against Assad's well-equipped jet fighters and anti-aircraft defences is equally unappealing. So strategists have been looking at ways of hitting a limited number of regime targets over a short period with precision missiles and laser-guided bombs.
The hope is that these attacks would deter Assad from using chemical weapons and make it more difficult for him to launch them, even if he wanted to. The hope is that these attacks would deter Assad from using chemical weapons and make it more difficult for him to launch them if he wanted to.
The US is reported to be considering a two-day campaign, according to the Washington Post – a timescale that chimes with British hopes any attacks would be seen as warning shots rather than the first steps in a broader campaign. The US is reported to be considering a two-day campaign, according to the Washington Post – a timescale that chimes with British hopes that any attacks would be seen as warning shots rather than the first steps in a broader campaign.
Though this limited action is unlikely to take place before MPs have had a chance to discuss the matter on Thursday, the momentum for striking sooner rather than later has been growing since the weekend.Though this limited action is unlikely to take place before MPs have had a chance to discuss the matter on Thursday, the momentum for striking sooner rather than later has been growing since the weekend.
Britain could offer warships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which could be launched miles away from the Syrian coast. The Trafalgar-class submarine HMS Tireless is reported to be already in the region. Britain could offer warships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which could be launched miles from the Syrian coast. The Trafalgar-class submarine HMS Tireless is reported to be already in the region.
The RAF could be involved, too. During the Libyan campaign, several Tornado GR4 jets armed with Storm Shadow missiles flew long-range missions from a base in Norfolk to attack military targets used by forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi. The RAF could be involved, too. During the Libyan campaign, several Tornado GR4 jets armed with Storm Shadow missiles flew long-range missions from a base in Norfolk to attack military targets used by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.
The five-metre-long Storm Shadow is one of the "fire and forget" missiles favoured by the military. It can be launched by a bomber from any location up to 155 miles from the target, and is guided by a high-resolution infrared camera, which makes it extremely accurate. The 5 metre-long Storm Shadow is one of the "fire and forget" missiles favoured by the military. It can be launched by a bomber from any location up to 155 miles from the target, and is guided by a high-resolution infrared camera, which makes it extremely accurate.
However, targeting Assad's chemical weapons stores directly is not thought to be a serious option because of concern about containing any fallout.However, targeting Assad's chemical weapons stores directly is not thought to be a serious option because of concern about containing any fallout.
The Royal Navy's Response Force Task Group, which includes a total of 10 ships and thousands of Royal Marine and other navy personnel, is currently in the Adriatic on a long-planned deployment. If need be, some of these ships could be directed to Syria, but that is not currently being considered. The Royal Navy's response force task group, which includes a total of 10 ships and thousands of Royal Marine and other navy personnel, is currently in the Adriatic on a long-planned deployment. If need be, some of these ships could be directed to Syria, but that is not currently being considered.
While Houghton and the heads of the three services will outline how the military can "break things in Syria", senior voices at the MoD have been cautioning that it is unrealistic to think the country's civil war can be fixed by outside military intervention.While Houghton and the heads of the three services will outline how the military can "break things in Syria", senior voices at the MoD have been cautioning that it is unrealistic to think the country's civil war can be fixed by outside military intervention.
Commanders have privately been urging a strategy of containment of the fighting in Syria, and fear that even a limited military campaign may provoke Assad to more aggression – and potentially drive a dangerous wedge between the west and China and Russia.Commanders have privately been urging a strategy of containment of the fighting in Syria, and fear that even a limited military campaign may provoke Assad to more aggression – and potentially drive a dangerous wedge between the west and China and Russia.
"There is no right way in Syria," said the source. "Every option carries risks.""There is no right way in Syria," said the source. "Every option carries risks."
General Lord Dannatt, the former head of the British army, said on Tuesday he was opposed to military intervention. His was one of a number of leading military voices to come out against attacking Assad at this stage. General Lord Dannatt, the former head of the British army, said he was opposed to military intervention. His was one of a number of leading military voices to come out against attacking Assad at this stage.
Speaking to the BBC, he said: "It's wrong because although undoubtedly, by any moral standards at all, using chemical weapons against your own people … is what, on the balance of probabilities, it now seems Assad has done, this does not constitute an open invitation for the international community to impose themselves on the internal affairs of another country.Speaking to the BBC, he said: "It's wrong because although undoubtedly, by any moral standards at all, using chemical weapons against your own people … is what, on the balance of probabilities, it now seems Assad has done, this does not constitute an open invitation for the international community to impose themselves on the internal affairs of another country.
"Now, if the international community was of one voice on this, and the UN security council was of one voice … that would be a different issue, because the case then would be compelling and undoubtedly legal."Now, if the international community was of one voice on this, and the UN security council was of one voice … that would be a different issue, because the case then would be compelling and undoubtedly legal.
"But the international community is fractured on this, and while there are some things we do know, there are many things we do not know about Syria, and the main thing we don't know is what the effect of these strikes would be on the developments and consequences of the civil conflict in Syria.""But the international community is fractured on this, and while there are some things we do know, there are many things we do not know about Syria, and the main thing we don't know is what the effect of these strikes would be on the developments and consequences of the civil conflict in Syria."
Race against time
Time is a crucial factor in a chemical weapons inspection. The best chance of uncovering solid proof of an attack comes when inspectors get swift access and stay as long as they need. Neither has happened in Syria.
Most chemical agents degrade swiftly – in victims and in the environment – so the odds of turning up solid evidence fall with every day that passes.
The UN team was denied access to the site on the outskirts of Damascus long enough for chemical agents to vanish, and even their breakdown products might be hard to find. But the site was still important to visit.
The other places the team plans to see are linked to incidents that in some cases are months older.
The poorer the evidence at a site, the longer inspectors must stay to collect samples and interview those affected to build up a convincing picture of the incident.
The UN team was restricted to three hours near Damascus, making the visit all too brief. They would have collected all the evidence they could, from blood, urine and other physiological samples, to soil and even remnants of the munitions that delivered any agents.
But they also had to conduct as many interviews as they could, with victims, witnesses and health workers.
The White House on Tuesday dismissed the UN mission as "redundant" given a separate US analysis of the incident. That could make academic the UN team's claim that it found "valuable evidence", even with the credibility of independence in their favour. Ian Sample
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