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China: Bo Xilai's measured fall from grace China: Bo Xilai's measured fall from grace
(25 days later)
Bo Xilai's trial has confounded all predictions. In a country where criminal proceedings are normally measured in hours, and are formalistic, procedural affairs whose outcome is decided elsewhere and well in advance, Mr Bo's trial has been anything but scripted. As the hearing went into its fifth day, the once-powerful regional party chief has mounted the defence of a lifetime. He has grandstanded the hearing, presenting himself as indomitable and unyielding. He has rounded on his accusers, calling the main prosecution witness a mad dog, and his wife's testimony laughable and the product of a mentally unbalanced mind. Some of the exchanges in the Jinan intermediate people's court have been released in real-time by a court microblog and have been the subject of heated national debate. Those, like the businessmen Xu Ming, who gave their testimony in person have been mauled in cross-examination by Mr Bo.Bo Xilai's trial has confounded all predictions. In a country where criminal proceedings are normally measured in hours, and are formalistic, procedural affairs whose outcome is decided elsewhere and well in advance, Mr Bo's trial has been anything but scripted. As the hearing went into its fifth day, the once-powerful regional party chief has mounted the defence of a lifetime. He has grandstanded the hearing, presenting himself as indomitable and unyielding. He has rounded on his accusers, calling the main prosecution witness a mad dog, and his wife's testimony laughable and the product of a mentally unbalanced mind. Some of the exchanges in the Jinan intermediate people's court have been released in real-time by a court microblog and have been the subject of heated national debate. Those, like the businessmen Xu Ming, who gave their testimony in person have been mauled in cross-examination by Mr Bo.
If there is little doubt that Mr Bo will go down – and most analysts believe for at least a decade – he is now more likely to do so in a manner that keeps his large, loyal, grassroots following intact. He could even be rehabilitated at some point in the future. The nation has had a ringside seat, and although the online posts have not been free of editing (the court transcripts have gone into greater detail into the evidence against him than into his rebuttals of the statements of witnesses) no one can say that Mr Bo has been denied his say in court.If there is little doubt that Mr Bo will go down – and most analysts believe for at least a decade – he is now more likely to do so in a manner that keeps his large, loyal, grassroots following intact. He could even be rehabilitated at some point in the future. The nation has had a ringside seat, and although the online posts have not been free of editing (the court transcripts have gone into greater detail into the evidence against him than into his rebuttals of the statements of witnesses) no one can say that Mr Bo has been denied his say in court.
It is difficult to say what this means. There can be no doubt that Mr Bo's treatment in court has been privileged and unusual. To that extent, it has been authorised to present the appearance of a fair and open trial. Assuming that permission for such a freewheeling trial came from Beijing, rather than Jinan, Mr Bo's treatment reflects the fact that he, or his supporters, still have some leverage over the politburo's standing committee, the seven-man body that runs China. It has been cautious in how it has handled such a potentially explosive occasion. The newly anointed leader, Xi Jinping, is treading a fine balance between keeping faith with both his anti-corruption campaign, and the class he comes from. Both he and Mr Bo belong to the party's new generation of princelings – children of the party's founding fathers. The billionaire Mr Xu, who the prosecution claims funnelled millions of dollars in bribes to Mr Bo and his family, served other political patrons, such as the former prime minister Wen Jiabao. The whole country operates on guanxi, a network of friends in high places without whom nothing gets done. Although guanxi at this level is paid for in French villas, rather than Burberrys, the principle is the same. Mr Xi's campaign can only go so far, and so, one assumes, can Mr Bo's fall from grace.It is difficult to say what this means. There can be no doubt that Mr Bo's treatment in court has been privileged and unusual. To that extent, it has been authorised to present the appearance of a fair and open trial. Assuming that permission for such a freewheeling trial came from Beijing, rather than Jinan, Mr Bo's treatment reflects the fact that he, or his supporters, still have some leverage over the politburo's standing committee, the seven-man body that runs China. It has been cautious in how it has handled such a potentially explosive occasion. The newly anointed leader, Xi Jinping, is treading a fine balance between keeping faith with both his anti-corruption campaign, and the class he comes from. Both he and Mr Bo belong to the party's new generation of princelings – children of the party's founding fathers. The billionaire Mr Xu, who the prosecution claims funnelled millions of dollars in bribes to Mr Bo and his family, served other political patrons, such as the former prime minister Wen Jiabao. The whole country operates on guanxi, a network of friends in high places without whom nothing gets done. Although guanxi at this level is paid for in French villas, rather than Burberrys, the principle is the same. Mr Xi's campaign can only go so far, and so, one assumes, can Mr Bo's fall from grace.
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