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UK interest rates held until unemployment falls UK interest rates held until unemployment falls
(35 minutes later)
Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said the Bank will not consider raising interest rates until the jobless rate has fallen to 7% or below.Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said the Bank will not consider raising interest rates until the jobless rate has fallen to 7% or below.
Mr Carney said he expected this would require the creation of about 750,000 jobs and could take three years.Mr Carney said he expected this would require the creation of about 750,000 jobs and could take three years.
The UK unemployment rate currently stands at 7.8%.The UK unemployment rate currently stands at 7.8%.
The governor said this extra clarity was needed to avoid unnecessary fears that interest rates would rise after recent positive economic news.The governor said this extra clarity was needed to avoid unnecessary fears that interest rates would rise after recent positive economic news.
Mr Carney said that the 7% unemployment figure was not a target, but a point at which the Bank of England would re-examine interest rates. The unemployment threshold will hold unless inflation levels threaten to rise too fast or it poses a significant threat to financial stability.Mr Carney said that the 7% unemployment figure was not a target, but a point at which the Bank of England would re-examine interest rates. The unemployment threshold will hold unless inflation levels threaten to rise too fast or it poses a significant threat to financial stability.
Mr Carney said that until the threshold was reached the Bank would not cut back on its £375bn asset purchase programme, known as quantitative easing (QE).Mr Carney said that until the threshold was reached the Bank would not cut back on its £375bn asset purchase programme, known as quantitative easing (QE).
The moves sees the Bank of England joining both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in providing so-called 'forward guidance' on their interest rate policies. The move sees the Bank of England joining both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in providing so-called "forward guidance" on interest rate policies.
Growth forecast 'Confidence boost'
Recent economic figures and surveys have suggested the recovery in the UK economy is picking up pace.
On Tuesday, official figures showed manufacturing output surged in June, while surveys have also indicated gathering strength in the service sector and housing market.
While upbeat on the prospects for the UK economy, Mr Carney said it had not reached "escape velocity" yet.While upbeat on the prospects for the UK economy, Mr Carney said it had not reached "escape velocity" yet.
"A renewed recovery is now underway in the United Kingdom and it appears to be broadening," he said."A renewed recovery is now underway in the United Kingdom and it appears to be broadening," he said.
"While that is certainly welcome, the legacy of the financial crisis means that the recovery remains weak by historical standards and there is still a significant margin of spare capacity in the economy, this is most clearly evident in the high rate of unemployment.""While that is certainly welcome, the legacy of the financial crisis means that the recovery remains weak by historical standards and there is still a significant margin of spare capacity in the economy, this is most clearly evident in the high rate of unemployment."
John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the forward guidance would reassure firms.John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the forward guidance would reassure firms.
"This will give businesses a much-needed confidence boost when looking to invest, as they know that any plans will not suddenly be derailed by a hike in interest rates," he said."This will give businesses a much-needed confidence boost when looking to invest, as they know that any plans will not suddenly be derailed by a hike in interest rates," he said.
But Alan Clarke, director of fixed income strategy at Scotiabank, said unemployment could drop below 7% - the rate that would trigger a re-evaluation of interest rates - well before the Bank of England expects.But Alan Clarke, director of fixed income strategy at Scotiabank, said unemployment could drop below 7% - the rate that would trigger a re-evaluation of interest rates - well before the Bank of England expects.
"Our knee-jerk reaction is that 2016 is a rather conservative assumption," he said. "Our knee-jerk reaction is that 2016 is a rather conservative assumption," he said. "Our working assumption was that level of the unemployment rate could be reached at least a year earlier."
"Our working assumption was that level of the unemployment rate could be reached at least a year earlier." The possibility of an earlier-than-expected rise in rates lifted the pound on the currency markets, with sterling rising by more than a cent against the dollar to $1.5458.
'Knock-out' 'Knock-out' conditions
On the markets, shares rose and the pound fell immediately after the Bank's statement was released, although the movements were quickly reversed.
There had been widespread expectation that Mr Carney would commit the Bank to the new strategy.There had been widespread expectation that Mr Carney would commit the Bank to the new strategy.
With short-term interest rates already at historic lows, the aim is to reduce longer-term interest rates.With short-term interest rates already at historic lows, the aim is to reduce longer-term interest rates.
Knowing interest rates could remain low, potentially for years, gives banks and mortgage lenders the ability to "lock-in" customers at lower rates for longer.Knowing interest rates could remain low, potentially for years, gives banks and mortgage lenders the ability to "lock-in" customers at lower rates for longer.
The Bank's guidance is subject to three provisos; breaching any of them would sever the link between interest rates and unemployment levels.The Bank's guidance is subject to three provisos; breaching any of them would sever the link between interest rates and unemployment levels.
These so-called 'knock-outs' are:These so-called 'knock-outs' are:
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, welcomed the move. The Chancellor, George Osborne, welcomed the move.
"I agree with you that forward guidance can play a useful role in enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy and thereby support the recovery," he said in a letter to the governor."I agree with you that forward guidance can play a useful role in enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy and thereby support the recovery," he said in a letter to the governor.
The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report was more upbeat about economic growth than it had been in May.The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report was more upbeat about economic growth than it had been in May.
It presents its forecasts as a range of possibilities rather than a specific figure, but predicted accelerating growth for the rest of this year, with its central forecast being for growth of about 2.4% in two years. It presents its forecasts as a range of possibilities rather than a specific figure, but predicted accelerating growth for the rest of this year, with its central forecast being for growth of about 2.4% in two years' time.
It also forecast that the CPI measure of inflation was likely to be at its target rate of 2.0% during 2015.It also forecast that the CPI measure of inflation was likely to be at its target rate of 2.0% during 2015.