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European Central Bank Keeps Key Rate at 0.5% European Central Bank Keeps Key Rate at 0.5%
(about 1 hour later)
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, amid signs that the euro zone economy could be slowly coming back to life.FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, amid signs that the euro zone economy could be slowly coming back to life.
The E.C.B. kept its main rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, as expected. Recent surveys of business sentiment have raised hopes that the euro zone economy could be emerging from recession. Any recovery is likely to be weak, though, and insufficient to make a significant dent in euro zone unemployment that has remained at a record high of 12.1 percent for four months.The E.C.B. kept its main rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, as expected. Recent surveys of business sentiment have raised hopes that the euro zone economy could be emerging from recession. Any recovery is likely to be weak, though, and insufficient to make a significant dent in euro zone unemployment that has remained at a record high of 12.1 percent for four months.
With E.C.B. interest rates already at record lows, Mario Draghi, the central bank’s president, has been trying to use his powers of persuasion to talk down market rates and make credit more available to businesses and consumers. Last month, he broke with precedent by promising to keep rates low for an extended period. Before then, the E.C.B. had refused to offer so-called “forward guidance.” In a news conference, Mario Draghi, the central bank’s president, said the E.C.B. would keep rates a their current level or lower for “an extended period,” on the expectation of “a gradual recovery in economic activity in the remaining part of the year and in 2014.”
With E.C.B. interest rates already at record lows, Mr. Draghi has been trying to use his powers of persuasion to talk down market rates and make credit more available to businesses and consumers. Last month, he broke with precedent by promising to keep rates low for an extended period. Before then, the E.C.B. had refused to offer so-called “forward guidance.”
But that statement by Mr. Draghi does not appear to have had much effect, some analysts said. And it is likely that some members of the E.C.B. governing council pushed for a rate cut when they met on Thursday.But that statement by Mr. Draghi does not appear to have had much effect, some analysts said. And it is likely that some members of the E.C.B. governing council pushed for a rate cut when they met on Thursday.
“The forward guidance impact on market rates has been muted at best,” analysts at Nomura said.“The forward guidance impact on market rates has been muted at best,” analysts at Nomura said.
The E.C.B. was expected to announce Thursday that it would begin disclosing the minutes of governing council meetings, a change that would help analysts better understand the workings of the central bank and make its actions more predictable.The E.C.B. was expected to announce Thursday that it would begin disclosing the minutes of governing council meetings, a change that would help analysts better understand the workings of the central bank and make its actions more predictable.
In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung in Munich earlier this week, Mr. Draghi said he was in favor of disclosing the minutes.In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung in Munich earlier this week, Mr. Draghi said he was in favor of disclosing the minutes.
The change would bring the E.C.B. another step closer to adopting procedures used by the U.S. Federal Reserve. For its part, the Fed has emulated the E.C.B. practice of holding regular news conferences to discuss policy.The change would bring the E.C.B. another step closer to adopting procedures used by the U.S. Federal Reserve. For its part, the Fed has emulated the E.C.B. practice of holding regular news conferences to discuss policy.
Though fears of a euro zone breakup have largely receded, the Continent continues to struggle to return to growth. Even if a recovery materializes, it is likely to be tentative. And it could be years before countries like Spain and Greece are growing strongly enough to bring their high unemployment rates — above 25 percent — back to acceptable levels.Though fears of a euro zone breakup have largely receded, the Continent continues to struggle to return to growth. Even if a recovery materializes, it is likely to be tentative. And it could be years before countries like Spain and Greece are growing strongly enough to bring their high unemployment rates — above 25 percent — back to acceptable levels.
The E.C.B.'s job has been complicated recently by signs that the Federal Reserve could begin to gradually roll back its economic stimulus in the United States. On Wednesday, the Fed indicated it would continue its bond-buying stimulus program for at least another month.The E.C.B.'s job has been complicated recently by signs that the Federal Reserve could begin to gradually roll back its economic stimulus in the United States. On Wednesday, the Fed indicated it would continue its bond-buying stimulus program for at least another month.
Expectations of an eventual tighter U.S. monetary policy have unsettled financial markets in Europe, prompting Mr. Draghi to reassure investors that the E.C.B. is a long way from going in the same direction.Expectations of an eventual tighter U.S. monetary policy have unsettled financial markets in Europe, prompting Mr. Draghi to reassure investors that the E.C.B. is a long way from going in the same direction.