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| Resurgence of Middle East talks is partly about Obama's search for legacy | Resurgence of Middle East talks is partly about Obama's search for legacy |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| Following intensive diplomacy from US Secretary of State John Kerry, a new wave of face-to-face negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians appears set to begin in late July or August. This would be the first time that the two sides have met for direct discussions for about three years. | Following intensive diplomacy from US Secretary of State John Kerry, a new wave of face-to-face negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians appears set to begin in late July or August. This would be the first time that the two sides have met for direct discussions for about three years. |
| The time and political capital that Kerry has put into bringing the two sides together (he has made six "peacemaking" trips to the region in four months) reflects growing international conviction that, 20 years after the Oslo Process began, the "window of opportunity" for securing a two-state solution may be receding. A second key driver is President Barack Obama's desire to build a strong legacy during his final term of office. | The time and political capital that Kerry has put into bringing the two sides together (he has made six "peacemaking" trips to the region in four months) reflects growing international conviction that, 20 years after the Oslo Process began, the "window of opportunity" for securing a two-state solution may be receding. A second key driver is President Barack Obama's desire to build a strong legacy during his final term of office. |
| Previous presidents have often seen foreign policy as a key part of the legacy they wish to build. For instance, after the trauma of the 2001 terrorist attacks, President George W Bush sought to spread his democracy and freedom agenda across the Middle East, which included the toppling of Saddam Hussein's Iraqi regime. | Previous presidents have often seen foreign policy as a key part of the legacy they wish to build. For instance, after the trauma of the 2001 terrorist attacks, President George W Bush sought to spread his democracy and freedom agenda across the Middle East, which included the toppling of Saddam Hussein's Iraqi regime. |
| President Bill Clinton was the last president to devote significant time to securing a comprehensive peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians. And he came relatively close to securing a breakthrough deal in 2000 at the Camp David Summit, but compromise ultimately proved elusive. | President Bill Clinton was the last president to devote significant time to securing a comprehensive peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians. And he came relatively close to securing a breakthrough deal in 2000 at the Camp David Summit, but compromise ultimately proved elusive. |
| That the Obama administration is increasing looking to foreign policy to establish a legacy reflects, in large part, the intense polarization and gridlock of Washington following last November's US elections. Although the president won a convincing victory over Mitt Romney, congressional Republicans, who were so at odds with the president's first term agenda, maintained their firm grip of the House of Representatives, and a sizable minority in the Senate. | That the Obama administration is increasing looking to foreign policy to establish a legacy reflects, in large part, the intense polarization and gridlock of Washington following last November's US elections. Although the president won a convincing victory over Mitt Romney, congressional Republicans, who were so at odds with the president's first term agenda, maintained their firm grip of the House of Representatives, and a sizable minority in the Senate. |
| Since his re-election, Obama has achieved relatively little high profile domestic policy success. His gun control bill was defeated, immigration reform faces mounting opposition in the House of Representatives, and the prospect of a long-term federal budgetary "grand bargain" with Congress looks increasing unlikely. | Since his re-election, Obama has achieved relatively little high profile domestic policy success. His gun control bill was defeated, immigration reform faces mounting opposition in the House of Representatives, and the prospect of a long-term federal budgetary "grand bargain" with Congress looks increasing unlikely. |
| Like Obama, many re-elected presidents in the post-war era have found it difficult to acquire momentum behind a significant new domestic agenda. In part, this is because the party of re-elected presidents, as with the Democrats now, often hold a weaker position in Congress in second presidential terms of office. | Like Obama, many re-elected presidents in the post-war era have found it difficult to acquire momentum behind a significant new domestic agenda. In part, this is because the party of re-elected presidents, as with the Democrats now, often hold a weaker position in Congress in second presidential terms of office. |
| Thus Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, Richard Nixon in 1972 and Bill Clinton in 1996 were all re-elected alongside Congresses where both the House of Representatives and Senate were controlled by their partisan opponents. This dynamic means policy initiative in Washington – if it exists at all – can edge back to Congress. Another factor that can undermine productivity of presidential second terms is the fact that re-elected administrations have often been impacted by scandals in recent decades (although the events that trigger the scandals can happen during first terms). Thus, Watergate ended the Nixon administration in 1974, Iran-Contra badly damaged the Reagan White House and the Lewinsky scandal led to Clinton being impeached in 1998. Since Obama's re-election, a series of scandals has hit the administration. These include revelations that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) targeted some conservative groups for special scrutiny, which led to the resignation of acting-IRS commissioner; and the Department of Justice's secret subpoenaing of private phone records of several Associated Press reporters and editors in the wake of a terrorist plot leak. | Thus Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, Richard Nixon in 1972 and Bill Clinton in 1996 were all re-elected alongside Congresses where both the House of Representatives and Senate were controlled by their partisan opponents. This dynamic means policy initiative in Washington – if it exists at all – can edge back to Congress. Another factor that can undermine productivity of presidential second terms is the fact that re-elected administrations have often been impacted by scandals in recent decades (although the events that trigger the scandals can happen during first terms). Thus, Watergate ended the Nixon administration in 1974, Iran-Contra badly damaged the Reagan White House and the Lewinsky scandal led to Clinton being impeached in 1998. Since Obama's re-election, a series of scandals has hit the administration. These include revelations that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) targeted some conservative groups for special scrutiny, which led to the resignation of acting-IRS commissioner; and the Department of Justice's secret subpoenaing of private phone records of several Associated Press reporters and editors in the wake of a terrorist plot leak. |
| Even if Obama and his administration escape any further scandals, he will not be able to avoid the "lame-duck" factor. That is, as a president cannot seek more than two terms, political focus will inevitably refocus elsewhere in the country, particularly after the 2014 congressional elections when the 2016 presidential election campaign kicks into gear. This overall domestic policy context means Obama is likely to place ever increasing emphasis on foreign policy (which Congress has less latitude over) in his remaining period of office. This is especially probable if the US economic recovery builds up steam in coming months. Pursuit of an Israel-Palestinian deal will be only one key area in which Obama looks for a legacy. This is for two reasons. Firstly, despite Kerry's intensive diplomacy, a peace agreement – as Bill Clinton found in 2000 – will prove enormously difficult. | Even if Obama and his administration escape any further scandals, he will not be able to avoid the "lame-duck" factor. That is, as a president cannot seek more than two terms, political focus will inevitably refocus elsewhere in the country, particularly after the 2014 congressional elections when the 2016 presidential election campaign kicks into gear. This overall domestic policy context means Obama is likely to place ever increasing emphasis on foreign policy (which Congress has less latitude over) in his remaining period of office. This is especially probable if the US economic recovery builds up steam in coming months. Pursuit of an Israel-Palestinian deal will be only one key area in which Obama looks for a legacy. This is for two reasons. Firstly, despite Kerry's intensive diplomacy, a peace agreement – as Bill Clinton found in 2000 – will prove enormously difficult. |
| Secondly, more than a decade after the 2000 Camp David Summit, Asia in general, and China in particular, has assumed much greater importance in US foreign policy. Following withdraw of US troops from Iraq, and the intended draw-down in Afghanistan, Obama is seeking to continue his post-9/11 pivot of US foreign policy toward the Asia-Pacific region through initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership. | Secondly, more than a decade after the 2000 Camp David Summit, Asia in general, and China in particular, has assumed much greater importance in US foreign policy. Following withdraw of US troops from Iraq, and the intended draw-down in Afghanistan, Obama is seeking to continue his post-9/11 pivot of US foreign policy toward the Asia-Pacific region through initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership. |
| Key threats on the horizon to Obama securing this re-orientation of policy remain the possibility of further devastating terrorist attacks on the US homeland from al-Qaida, or a major upsurge of tension in the Middle East. Should any of these scenarios arise, however, it will only reinforce Obama's probable focus on foreign policy in his second term. | Key threats on the horizon to Obama securing this re-orientation of policy remain the possibility of further devastating terrorist attacks on the US homeland from al-Qaida, or a major upsurge of tension in the Middle East. Should any of these scenarios arise, however, it will only reinforce Obama's probable focus on foreign policy in his second term. |
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