This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/29/when-is-the-election-date

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
When is the election? Tony wants a date, but Kevin can wait Headless chooks are guessing the election date, but only Kevin knows
(about 2 months later)
Dear readers, let me lift the veil for you briefly. We are all speculating about election timing, even the principals.Dear readers, let me lift the veil for you briefly. We are all speculating about election timing, even the principals.
Until the key decision-makers in the Labor backroom nod in unison, and the prime minister’s off down Dunrossil Drive to see the governor general, there is always another possible scenario on election timing, always another road you might have taken.Until the key decision-makers in the Labor backroom nod in unison, and the prime minister’s off down Dunrossil Drive to see the governor general, there is always another possible scenario on election timing, always another road you might have taken.
There were a lot of signs pointing to a 31 August election late last week, a lot of intense work going on. A lot of momentum, which ultimately fizzled. Try as it might, the government could not produce a fully tied-up economic statement in five minutes (although stranger things have happened at sea). And part of Rudd’s dash around the country last week not only reflected the prime minister’s basic instinct to run at a million miles an hour all the time, preferably in multiple time zones, but also reflected practical and logistical things that still needed doing off-site, around the country. Meetings, preparation of campaign materials, shooting overlay for advertising.There were a lot of signs pointing to a 31 August election late last week, a lot of intense work going on. A lot of momentum, which ultimately fizzled. Try as it might, the government could not produce a fully tied-up economic statement in five minutes (although stranger things have happened at sea). And part of Rudd’s dash around the country last week not only reflected the prime minister’s basic instinct to run at a million miles an hour all the time, preferably in multiple time zones, but also reflected practical and logistical things that still needed doing off-site, around the country. Meetings, preparation of campaign materials, shooting overlay for advertising.
You could see the prime minister – a chap who in his own mind spent nearly a whole term in exile, denied his rightful job by That Lady we no longer name – chafing against a timeframe the media was imposing on him in search of a sharp end to the Kevin comeback story.You could see the prime minister – a chap who in his own mind spent nearly a whole term in exile, denied his rightful job by That Lady we no longer name – chafing against a timeframe the media was imposing on him in search of a sharp end to the Kevin comeback story.
Rudd was still deep in his comeback story, quite taken by it in fact. He wasn’t seeking a coda. You could see the grinding of teeth and the clipped tone in a couple of Rudd’s public events last week. The daily news cycle was, as it almost always is, running ahead of where Rudd was in his head (back being the prime minister of Australia after an unscheduled and unwelcome interruption); and ahead of where the detailed work was at behind the scenes.Rudd was still deep in his comeback story, quite taken by it in fact. He wasn’t seeking a coda. You could see the grinding of teeth and the clipped tone in a couple of Rudd’s public events last week. The daily news cycle was, as it almost always is, running ahead of where Rudd was in his head (back being the prime minister of Australia after an unscheduled and unwelcome interruption); and ahead of where the detailed work was at behind the scenes.
So 31 August is “off the agenda”. That’s today’s talking point. Now breakfast TV and the early breaking news reports are making their pivot to the next best option. Today’s conventional wisdom is a poll on 7 September.So 31 August is “off the agenda”. That’s today’s talking point. Now breakfast TV and the early breaking news reports are making their pivot to the next best option. Today’s conventional wisdom is a poll on 7 September.
It certainly makes sense. Calling the election towards the end of this week would give the government time to wrap up its numbers, work out how it’s going to frame the economic conversation for the campaign – which is the point of the economic statement, using incumbency to get you on the front foot, rather than hanging back and letting PEFO (pre-election economic and fiscal outlook), the independent financial statement that lobs from Treasury a couple of weeks into the campaign, put you on the defensive.It certainly makes sense. Calling the election towards the end of this week would give the government time to wrap up its numbers, work out how it’s going to frame the economic conversation for the campaign – which is the point of the economic statement, using incumbency to get you on the front foot, rather than hanging back and letting PEFO (pre-election economic and fiscal outlook), the independent financial statement that lobs from Treasury a couple of weeks into the campaign, put you on the defensive.
A bit more business could be conducted, including some dollars for the car industry, and the fine print of some election promises. At the end of this week, the government will likely be in a position to begin the first transfer of asylum seeker detainees to Manus Island.A bit more business could be conducted, including some dollars for the car industry, and the fine print of some election promises. At the end of this week, the government will likely be in a position to begin the first transfer of asylum seeker detainees to Manus Island.
Rudd would also get himself on the other side of the murk that will emerge almost inevitably from the Independent Commission Against Corruption in New South Wales mid-week – murk that would have chewed up a couple of days unproductively in the first week of the campaign had we been in business today. Rudd has already attempted to inoculate Labor in Canberra from the negative ICAC business in NSW by “taking charge” of the branch, and positioning himself as the chap with the will to take on the institutional rot. It would make sense to let ICAC thud into the news cycle, then change the national conversation with the economic statement, and go. An election called towards the end of this week makes a lot of sense for those reasons.Rudd would also get himself on the other side of the murk that will emerge almost inevitably from the Independent Commission Against Corruption in New South Wales mid-week – murk that would have chewed up a couple of days unproductively in the first week of the campaign had we been in business today. Rudd has already attempted to inoculate Labor in Canberra from the negative ICAC business in NSW by “taking charge” of the branch, and positioning himself as the chap with the will to take on the institutional rot. It would make sense to let ICAC thud into the news cycle, then change the national conversation with the economic statement, and go. An election called towards the end of this week makes a lot of sense for those reasons.
It also makes a great deal of sense to keep switching your story to remove certainty from the Coalition. The gift Julia Gillard gave Tony Abbott – certainty over the election timing – has been one Kevin Rudd has been only too happy to revoke. Not knowing when the election will be called forces the opposition to do what oppositions generally do in such circumstances: live from day to day, make the on-balance judgments you make when you aren’t the people calling the shots. Abbott’s displeasure at being put into that position was evident over this past weekend. It must be intensely frustrating for him.It also makes a great deal of sense to keep switching your story to remove certainty from the Coalition. The gift Julia Gillard gave Tony Abbott – certainty over the election timing – has been one Kevin Rudd has been only too happy to revoke. Not knowing when the election will be called forces the opposition to do what oppositions generally do in such circumstances: live from day to day, make the on-balance judgments you make when you aren’t the people calling the shots. Abbott’s displeasure at being put into that position was evident over this past weekend. It must be intensely frustrating for him.
Here’s another lift of the veil, dear reader.Here’s another lift of the veil, dear reader.
People in politics periodically brief out misinformation if there is strategic benefit in doing so. I don’t imagine you are all shocked by that, but it’s worth noting. If your best interests are served by muddying the water, then you’ll use journalists to help you muddy the water.People in politics periodically brief out misinformation if there is strategic benefit in doing so. I don’t imagine you are all shocked by that, but it’s worth noting. If your best interests are served by muddying the water, then you’ll use journalists to help you muddy the water.
As they say in the classics, that’s politics.As they say in the classics, that’s politics.
People around Rudd will think different things, and they will say different things about options for the short-term outlook. It’s inevitable. The general dynamic behind the scenes can be summarised thus: there’s a fair measure of headless chookery; political hardheads want to get the show on the road as soon as practicable; Rudd himself would probably hasten more slowly.People around Rudd will think different things, and they will say different things about options for the short-term outlook. It’s inevitable. The general dynamic behind the scenes can be summarised thus: there’s a fair measure of headless chookery; political hardheads want to get the show on the road as soon as practicable; Rudd himself would probably hasten more slowly.
Fundamental fact? Kevin Rudd has absolutely no interest in creating any certainty around the election date – only Tony Abbott and the media have an interest in certainty. It makes life easier. We can all plan. The news editor stops asking when the election date is.Fundamental fact? Kevin Rudd has absolutely no interest in creating any certainty around the election date – only Tony Abbott and the media have an interest in certainty. It makes life easier. We can all plan. The news editor stops asking when the election date is.
There is only one true certainty when it comes to the timing of elections. Incumbent prime ministers go when they think they have the best chance of winning – when the campaign is ready to roll, when the polling in marginal seats looks favourable.There is only one true certainty when it comes to the timing of elections. Incumbent prime ministers go when they think they have the best chance of winning – when the campaign is ready to roll, when the polling in marginal seats looks favourable.
This time will be no different.This time will be no different.
Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning.Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning.
Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. Enter your email address to subscribe.
Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox every weekday.