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| After Mubarak, the Brotherhood was triumphant. Now it is in crisis | After Mubarak, the Brotherhood was triumphant. Now it is in crisis |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Outside the Rabaa al-Adaweya mosque in Cairo, the bodies of Muslim Brotherhood supporters were laid out in rows. In Libya, its offices in Benghazi and Tripoli were attacked during the same night. In Tunisia, the Brotherhood's offshoot, Ennahda, was facing its own political crisis following the assassination by suspected | |
| Salafist extremists of a prominent leftwing politician outside his home. | |
| A year ago it seemed as if Islamist parties – in particular those with roots in the Brotherhood – were in the ascendant following the Arab spring. This week they are confronting a profound crisis. | A year ago it seemed as if Islamist parties – in particular those with roots in the Brotherhood – were in the ascendant following the Arab spring. This week they are confronting a profound crisis. |
| If Egypt is the centre of gravity for the Muslim Brotherhood – the party was founded here in 1928 – it is also where the move against the ikhwan (brotherhood) has been sharpest in recent weeks. It was here that it was pushed out of office by an army-backed coup that has enjoyed – for now at least – substantial popular support from some sectors of Egyptian society. The Egyptian army and judiciary have in recent days reached into the Gamal Nasser playbook of half a century ago to pursue and decapitate the Brotherhood's leadership, including president Mohamed Morsi, who is detained on charges of murder and kidnapping. | If Egypt is the centre of gravity for the Muslim Brotherhood – the party was founded here in 1928 – it is also where the move against the ikhwan (brotherhood) has been sharpest in recent weeks. It was here that it was pushed out of office by an army-backed coup that has enjoyed – for now at least – substantial popular support from some sectors of Egyptian society. The Egyptian army and judiciary have in recent days reached into the Gamal Nasser playbook of half a century ago to pursue and decapitate the Brotherhood's leadership, including president Mohamed Morsi, who is detained on charges of murder and kidnapping. |
| If opposition to the Brotherhood on the ground has been mounting in individual countries, it has been matched by a growing regional alliance against it, led by Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The latter was among the first to congratulate Egypt's new interim president, Adly Mansour, barely hours after Morsi was deposed. It comes, too, as the influence of Qatar, a strong supporter of the Brotherhood, has appeared to wane. | If opposition to the Brotherhood on the ground has been mounting in individual countries, it has been matched by a growing regional alliance against it, led by Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The latter was among the first to congratulate Egypt's new interim president, Adly Mansour, barely hours after Morsi was deposed. It comes, too, as the influence of Qatar, a strong supporter of the Brotherhood, has appeared to wane. |
| Shadi Hamid, research director at the Brookings Doha Centre, however, cautioned against those writing "premature obituaries" of either wider political Islam or the Brotherhood itself: "The groupings being targeted at the moment are those with prominent positions in power and government. It's not the Salafist parties that are coming under pressure. The lesson we are learning is that Middle East politics is more fluid than we thought, and the electorate is very fickle." | Shadi Hamid, research director at the Brookings Doha Centre, however, cautioned against those writing "premature obituaries" of either wider political Islam or the Brotherhood itself: "The groupings being targeted at the moment are those with prominent positions in power and government. It's not the Salafist parties that are coming under pressure. The lesson we are learning is that Middle East politics is more fluid than we thought, and the electorate is very fickle." |
| Despite that, he believes that the Brotherhood in Egypt made a series of serious miscalculations after the fall of Hosni Mubarak, not least reversing its proclaimed position that it would not seek the post of president: "In late 2011 I recall senior Brotherhood leaders, including Essam Erian [one of its senior officials], saying that the people will not accept an Islamist president." | Despite that, he believes that the Brotherhood in Egypt made a series of serious miscalculations after the fall of Hosni Mubarak, not least reversing its proclaimed position that it would not seek the post of president: "In late 2011 I recall senior Brotherhood leaders, including Essam Erian [one of its senior officials], saying that the people will not accept an Islamist president." |
| Others were hearing the same message, including Nathan Brown, an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who described meetings with Khairat al-Shater, the Brotherhood's deputy leader. "I met Shater three times in 2011-2012," Brown told Reuters last week, "and each time it was clear that the political appetite was growing, but the first time he was extremely explicit that the Brotherhood would not seek political power right away. | |
| "He was very clear as to the reasons: the world's not ready for it, Egypt's not ready for it, and – the phrase he kept using – the burdens of Egypt are too big for any one political actor. Those turned out to be very sound judgments, but he abandoned them." | "He was very clear as to the reasons: the world's not ready for it, Egypt's not ready for it, and – the phrase he kept using – the burdens of Egypt are too big for any one political actor. Those turned out to be very sound judgments, but he abandoned them." |
| Instead, confronted with the candidacy of a popular former Muslim Brotherhood member, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, and believing their cohesion under threat, the Brotherhood abandoned its instincts and fielded its own candidate, ending up with Mohamed Morsi. | Instead, confronted with the candidacy of a popular former Muslim Brotherhood member, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, and believing their cohesion under threat, the Brotherhood abandoned its instincts and fielded its own candidate, ending up with Mohamed Morsi. |
| In power the ideologically conservative organisation compounded that miscalculation. The Brotherhood's majoritarian outlook – borne out of its centralised and disciplinarian organisation, with its "listen and obey" credo – ensured that it failed to reach out and engage with other key groups in Egyptian society, confirming the suspicion for its opponents that it was only pursuing its own narrow interests. | In power the ideologically conservative organisation compounded that miscalculation. The Brotherhood's majoritarian outlook – borne out of its centralised and disciplinarian organisation, with its "listen and obey" credo – ensured that it failed to reach out and engage with other key groups in Egyptian society, confirming the suspicion for its opponents that it was only pursuing its own narrow interests. |
| It has not only been in Egypt that the Brotherhood has faced a strong push back. In Libya, where the Brotherhood's political wing, the Justice and Construction party, controls the second-largest number of seats in the country's legislature, there has also been growing opposition to its increasing power and influence. On Friday hundreds took to the streets overnight to denounce the killing of a prominent political activist and critic of the Brotherhood, Abdelsalam al-Mosmary, who was shot dead after leaving a mosque following Friday prayers. | |
| It was Mosmary's death that led to the attacks on party offices in Benghazi and Tripoli. "The people were in the streets because they are fed up of all political parties and how the state has failed," said Hisham Idris, who had demonstrated in Tripoli's Martyrs Square. "Maybe the growing opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood is because they are trying to achieve their political ambitions using religion as a cover for their agenda." | It was Mosmary's death that led to the attacks on party offices in Benghazi and Tripoli. "The people were in the streets because they are fed up of all political parties and how the state has failed," said Hisham Idris, who had demonstrated in Tripoli's Martyrs Square. "Maybe the growing opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood is because they are trying to achieve their political ambitions using religion as a cover for their agenda." |
| It is Tunisia, perhaps, that holds the key to the difficulties being experienced by the Brotherhood and similar movements. "Tunisia," says Shadi Hamid, "is a very interesting point of comparison. The Ennahda party there has made significant concessions. It is in a coalition with other parties and has been very well-behaved. What is instructive is how much hatred of them remains." | It is Tunisia, perhaps, that holds the key to the difficulties being experienced by the Brotherhood and similar movements. "Tunisia," says Shadi Hamid, "is a very interesting point of comparison. The Ennahda party there has made significant concessions. It is in a coalition with other parties and has been very well-behaved. What is instructive is how much hatred of them remains." |
| Omar Ashour, an expert in Islamist movements and their ideologies at Exeter University, believes that the difficulties facing the Brotherhood and its allies across north Africa reflect a wider problem for the democratisation process: "The losers don't accept that they have lost elections, but the winners have not been able to contain the forces against them and have not been able to rule. The Islamist parties can win, but have found it difficult to rule. A large part of it has to do with the relevance of power. Ennahda in Tunisia and the Muslim Brotherhood have been faced by powerful interests. | |
| "They have access to wealth – which is where the influence of United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia comes in – and they have strong connections with the police and army and other state institutions like the judiciary." | "They have access to wealth – which is where the influence of United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia comes in – and they have strong connections with the police and army and other state institutions like the judiciary." |
| He believes that for the Muslim Brotherhood itself, the crisis, in Egypt in particular, will pose a difficult internal question. "The leadership has to answer the question: how did you let this happen to you?" | He believes that for the Muslim Brotherhood itself, the crisis, in Egypt in particular, will pose a difficult internal question. "The leadership has to answer the question: how did you let this happen to you?" |
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