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| Liz Cheney: Wyoming considers America's latest legacy politician | Liz Cheney: Wyoming considers America's latest legacy politician |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| When Elizabeth Cheney announced her plans last week to run for the Senate seat from Wyoming, she not only threw her hat in the ring for an interesting primary race with senator Michael B Enzi, but she also joined a fairly large and exclusive club of politicians who directly inherited their political credentials from their famous last names. | When Elizabeth Cheney announced her plans last week to run for the Senate seat from Wyoming, she not only threw her hat in the ring for an interesting primary race with senator Michael B Enzi, but she also joined a fairly large and exclusive club of politicians who directly inherited their political credentials from their famous last names. |
| She will be in good company. In her own party she has Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, two names which have made the rounds as possible candidates for the next presidential elections, while across the aisle she has Hillary Clinton, Beau Biden – attorney general of Delaware and son of current vice-president Joe Biden – while a fourth generation of Kennedys has already entered the Congress in the form of Joe Kennedy III. | She will be in good company. In her own party she has Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, two names which have made the rounds as possible candidates for the next presidential elections, while across the aisle she has Hillary Clinton, Beau Biden – attorney general of Delaware and son of current vice-president Joe Biden – while a fourth generation of Kennedys has already entered the Congress in the form of Joe Kennedy III. |
| In fact, we could have a situation in 2016, if both Hillary and Jeb decide to run, that both presidential candidates have descended from famous political families, like the 2000 race, when Bush Jr and Al Gore battled it out for the coveted title. | In fact, we could have a situation in 2016, if both Hillary and Jeb decide to run, that both presidential candidates have descended from famous political families, like the 2000 race, when Bush Jr and Al Gore battled it out for the coveted title. |
| This, of course is not a new phenomenon. Some think that ‘legacy politics’ – a term coined by academics to mean the participation of politicians who have at least one family member who has held a public office in the past – gained momentum with the Kennedys. | This, of course is not a new phenomenon. Some think that ‘legacy politics’ – a term coined by academics to mean the participation of politicians who have at least one family member who has held a public office in the past – gained momentum with the Kennedys. |
| However, a study, as early as in the mid-1970s, found that there have been about 700 families in which two or more members have served in Congress, and they account for 1,700 of the 10,000 men and women who had been elected to the federal legislature from 1774 to 1978. | However, a study, as early as in the mid-1970s, found that there have been about 700 families in which two or more members have served in Congress, and they account for 1,700 of the 10,000 men and women who had been elected to the federal legislature from 1774 to 1978. |
| In fact, the political map of United States is peppered with illustrious names of political families – the Udalls, who have been in politics for over 100 years across four generations and four states, the Rodneys of Delaware, the Stevensons of Illinois, the Bushes of Texas, the Gores of Tennessee, the Frelinghuysens of New Jersey, the Lujans of New Mexico, the La Folettes of Wisconsin, the Tafts of Ohio, the Longs of Louisiana and so on. | In fact, the political map of United States is peppered with illustrious names of political families – the Udalls, who have been in politics for over 100 years across four generations and four states, the Rodneys of Delaware, the Stevensons of Illinois, the Bushes of Texas, the Gores of Tennessee, the Frelinghuysens of New Jersey, the Lujans of New Mexico, the La Folettes of Wisconsin, the Tafts of Ohio, the Longs of Louisiana and so on. |
| If Liz Cheney manages to edge out Enzi in the primaries to take part in the Senate race in 2014, she will already start with anywhere between a four to eight percentage advantage over her opponent, just by virtue of her family name alone, which brings her the advantage of brand name recognition, campaign expenditures and district partisanship, finds one piece of research carried out by Brian D Feinstein of the Harvard Law School. | If Liz Cheney manages to edge out Enzi in the primaries to take part in the Senate race in 2014, she will already start with anywhere between a four to eight percentage advantage over her opponent, just by virtue of her family name alone, which brings her the advantage of brand name recognition, campaign expenditures and district partisanship, finds one piece of research carried out by Brian D Feinstein of the Harvard Law School. |
| “In a typical election, about 40 out of 400 seats are decided by fewer than 4% difference in votes. So this is a big advantage going into an election,” says Feinstein. | “In a typical election, about 40 out of 400 seats are decided by fewer than 4% difference in votes. So this is a big advantage going into an election,” says Feinstein. |
| Cheney’s advantage began even before she entered politics. Her candidature, say other recent studies, was already in the making when her father Dick Cheney spent years as a congressman from Wyoming, as secretary of defense and as vice-president. | Cheney’s advantage began even before she entered politics. Her candidature, say other recent studies, was already in the making when her father Dick Cheney spent years as a congressman from Wyoming, as secretary of defense and as vice-president. |
| “The longer a politician has held office, the more outrageous the probability that he will start a political dynasty,” says Jason Snyder of the UCLA Anderson School of Management and one of the authors of a study on political dynasties in the US. According to the study, politicians who held office for more than one term were 40% more likely to have a relative in Congress in the future. It is no accident that George Bush Sr and Joe Biden have spawned dynasties in the past and have now been joined by Cheney. | “The longer a politician has held office, the more outrageous the probability that he will start a political dynasty,” says Jason Snyder of the UCLA Anderson School of Management and one of the authors of a study on political dynasties in the US. According to the study, politicians who held office for more than one term were 40% more likely to have a relative in Congress in the future. It is no accident that George Bush Sr and Joe Biden have spawned dynasties in the past and have now been joined by Cheney. |
| Snyder, along with Ernesto Dal Bó and Pedro Dal Bó of the National Bureau of Economic Research carried out the study in 2008 and found that a long tenure in office allows a politician to accumulate assets such as access to wealth and contacts, and develop name recognition and brand, which he can bequeath to his successor. | Snyder, along with Ernesto Dal Bó and Pedro Dal Bó of the National Bureau of Economic Research carried out the study in 2008 and found that a long tenure in office allows a politician to accumulate assets such as access to wealth and contacts, and develop name recognition and brand, which he can bequeath to his successor. |
| Liz Cheney has been a resident of Virginia for many years, and only recently moved to Wyoming. It certainly is a well-researched decision. Feinstein finds that dynastic families often develop surrounding the same electoral district. “In a country where the state to state mobility of people is as high as 60%, it is very striking that political dynasties are 98% of the time based out of the same state,” says Feinstein. | |
| Enzi, it seems, does have much to worry about. Cheney’s advantage, if we are to believe another study, will start with the primaries. | Enzi, it seems, does have much to worry about. Cheney’s advantage, if we are to believe another study, will start with the primaries. |
| "When candidates are decided more at a local level, as in the US primaries system, the chances of a legacy candidate being selected for nomination is far greater," says Daniel Markham Smith of Harvard University. Markham, in his study titled Succeeding in Politics: Dynasties in Democracies, draws a distinction between political systems that encourage ‘personal vote’ as opposed to ‘party vote’ based on whether voters lean more on the party or the candidate while voting. The US primaries are certainly built around the ‘personal vote’ since it is essentially an intra-party exercise. | "When candidates are decided more at a local level, as in the US primaries system, the chances of a legacy candidate being selected for nomination is far greater," says Daniel Markham Smith of Harvard University. Markham, in his study titled Succeeding in Politics: Dynasties in Democracies, draws a distinction between political systems that encourage ‘personal vote’ as opposed to ‘party vote’ based on whether voters lean more on the party or the candidate while voting. The US primaries are certainly built around the ‘personal vote’ since it is essentially an intra-party exercise. |
| Smith says that political parties and election systems play as much a role in perpetuating political dynasties, as do voters. Smith discovered that election systems which are more candidate-centered than party-centered – as are US elections compared to countries with parliamentary democracy - are more likely to spawn political dynasties. Smith’s findings help explain why dynastic politicians are much lower in Canada – at around 2% – compared to the United States. | Smith says that political parties and election systems play as much a role in perpetuating political dynasties, as do voters. Smith discovered that election systems which are more candidate-centered than party-centered – as are US elections compared to countries with parliamentary democracy - are more likely to spawn political dynasties. Smith’s findings help explain why dynastic politicians are much lower in Canada – at around 2% – compared to the United States. |
| Liz Cheney also has the further distinction of being a female ‘legacy candidate’, a distinction also shared by Hillary and Nancy Pelosi. | Liz Cheney also has the further distinction of being a female ‘legacy candidate’, a distinction also shared by Hillary and Nancy Pelosi. |
| ‘One the positive side of things about legacy politics, we found out, is that it contributed significantly to the representation of women in US politics,’ says Ernesto Dal Bó. | ‘One the positive side of things about legacy politics, we found out, is that it contributed significantly to the representation of women in US politics,’ says Ernesto Dal Bó. |
| One shortcoming of all the recent studies appears to be that they are performance-neutral, in that they fail to factor in the performance and reputation of the predecessor. What happens when the Cheney or Bush name is associated hugely unpopular war? Does it deduct a few percentage points from her chances in the polls? While that may not play a major role in Wyoming, it is certainly guaranteed to show up if her ambitions expand in the future. | One shortcoming of all the recent studies appears to be that they are performance-neutral, in that they fail to factor in the performance and reputation of the predecessor. What happens when the Cheney or Bush name is associated hugely unpopular war? Does it deduct a few percentage points from her chances in the polls? While that may not play a major role in Wyoming, it is certainly guaranteed to show up if her ambitions expand in the future. |
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