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What polling on the Zimmerman verdict tells us: use your vote What polling on the Zimmerman verdict tells us: use your vote
(2 months later)
Why vote? It's a question often asked. Even for an election junkie, it can sometimes be difficult to know if it will really make a policy difference if we vote. Yet, the George Zimmerman trial and its aftermath offers a prime example of why voting is important. Here's why.Why vote? It's a question often asked. Even for an election junkie, it can sometimes be difficult to know if it will really make a policy difference if we vote. Yet, the George Zimmerman trial and its aftermath offers a prime example of why voting is important. Here's why.
A Pew Research poll released after the verdict showed that a slight plurality of those surveyed were dissatisfied with the verdict: 42% said they were not happy, while 39% said that they were satisfied. But the racial and age gaps between the two camps were wide.A Pew Research poll released after the verdict showed that a slight plurality of those surveyed were dissatisfied with the verdict: 42% said they were not happy, while 39% said that they were satisfied. But the racial and age gaps between the two camps were wide.
Whites were in favor of the ruling by a 19pt margin. Blacks against it by an 81pt margin. Latinos were dissatisfied by a 33pt margin. To age: 18-29 year-olds were unhappy by a 25pt margin; 30-49 year-olds by a 11pt margin; 50-64 year-olds were happy by a 1pt margin; while 65+ year-olds approved by a 17pt margin. The general age pattern holds even when controlling for the fact that minorities tend to make a larger percentage of younger voters.Whites were in favor of the ruling by a 19pt margin. Blacks against it by an 81pt margin. Latinos were dissatisfied by a 33pt margin. To age: 18-29 year-olds were unhappy by a 25pt margin; 30-49 year-olds by a 11pt margin; 50-64 year-olds were happy by a 1pt margin; while 65+ year-olds approved by a 17pt margin. The general age pattern holds even when controlling for the fact that minorities tend to make a larger percentage of younger voters.
As Nate Cohn points out, these differences look pretty much identical to the coalitions in the 2012 presidential elections.As Nate Cohn points out, these differences look pretty much identical to the coalitions in the 2012 presidential elections.
Any of the changes are within the margin of error. But there is one key difference between the two. The presidential election rundown was among likely voters, while the Zimmerman data are among all adults. While the latter gives us a more accurate picture of how all Americans feel, the former enables a better idea of the possible political ramifications. After all, voters are the people politicians listen to.Any of the changes are within the margin of error. But there is one key difference between the two. The presidential election rundown was among likely voters, while the Zimmerman data are among all adults. While the latter gives us a more accurate picture of how all Americans feel, the former enables a better idea of the possible political ramifications. After all, voters are the people politicians listen to.
When Pew concentrated solely on registered voters, they found that the 3pt margin between satisfied and dissatisfied flipped: 43% were satisfied, while 40% were unsatisfied. Those who are not registered to vote were against the verdict by a 19pt margin. The reason for this is that Latinos and 18-29 year-olds of all races and ethnicities are far less likely to vote. This was mirrored in the 2012 presidential election, when polls of all adults gave Obama a far wider lead among those who did not vote.When Pew concentrated solely on registered voters, they found that the 3pt margin between satisfied and dissatisfied flipped: 43% were satisfied, while 40% were unsatisfied. Those who are not registered to vote were against the verdict by a 19pt margin. The reason for this is that Latinos and 18-29 year-olds of all races and ethnicities are far less likely to vote. This was mirrored in the 2012 presidential election, when polls of all adults gave Obama a far wider lead among those who did not vote.
The key difference between 2012 and the Zimmerman data is that Obama had a large enough lead to cushion himself against the fact that parts of his coalition were less likely to vote. The takeaway, then, is that if people against the Zimmerman ruling want action, then they need to register to vote.The key difference between 2012 and the Zimmerman data is that Obama had a large enough lead to cushion himself against the fact that parts of his coalition were less likely to vote. The takeaway, then, is that if people against the Zimmerman ruling want action, then they need to register to vote.
This is especially the case in Florida. After the Zimmerman verdict, many were calling on Florida governor Rick Scott to speak out or even act against Florida's stand-your-ground law. Scott refused.This is especially the case in Florida. After the Zimmerman verdict, many were calling on Florida governor Rick Scott to speak out or even act against Florida's stand-your-ground law. Scott refused.
The good news for those who want Scott out is that he's quite vulnerable in his 2014 re-election bid. I'd probably bet against him, though it is early days. The truth, though, is that if all voters had cast a ballot, Scott would have never become governor.The good news for those who want Scott out is that he's quite vulnerable in his 2014 re-election bid. I'd probably bet against him, though it is early days. The truth, though, is that if all voters had cast a ballot, Scott would have never become governor.
Scott won his first term in the 2010 midterms by a margin of 1.15pt. That margin would not have held under a 2008 electorate, but younger voters, as they almost always do, stayed home in the midterm election. Plugging the turnout of the 2008 election into the 2010 results would indicate that Scott's Democratic opponent, Alex Sink, probably would have won by about 1pt – had the 2010 election had 2008 turnout.Scott won his first term in the 2010 midterms by a margin of 1.15pt. That margin would not have held under a 2008 electorate, but younger voters, as they almost always do, stayed home in the midterm election. Plugging the turnout of the 2008 election into the 2010 results would indicate that Scott's Democratic opponent, Alex Sink, probably would have won by about 1pt – had the 2010 election had 2008 turnout.
The response on stand-your-ground in the wake of the Zimmerman verdict from a Governor Sink would have likely been quite different than what we got from Governor Scott. She would almost certainly have been more sympathetic to the concerns of the African American community.The response on stand-your-ground in the wake of the Zimmerman verdict from a Governor Sink would have likely been quite different than what we got from Governor Scott. She would almost certainly have been more sympathetic to the concerns of the African American community.
Many other things would, of course, have been different if Florida had had Sink instead of Scott as governor since 2010. Measures to change state pensions, require drug testing for welfare recipients, cut in teacher pay, and, of course, alter the rules on early voting hours would surely have turned out differently. The response to the Trayvon Martin shooting would undoubtedly have been another instance.Many other things would, of course, have been different if Florida had had Sink instead of Scott as governor since 2010. Measures to change state pensions, require drug testing for welfare recipients, cut in teacher pay, and, of course, alter the rules on early voting hours would surely have turned out differently. The response to the Trayvon Martin shooting would undoubtedly have been another instance.
So, when someone tells you that voting doesn't make a difference, point them to Florida in general and the Zimmerman case specifically. Turnout isn't usually a game-changer, but in this case, it was – and is. A plurality of Americans are dissatisfied by the Zimmerman verdict, yet a plurality of registered voters are satisfied.So, when someone tells you that voting doesn't make a difference, point them to Florida in general and the Zimmerman case specifically. Turnout isn't usually a game-changer, but in this case, it was – and is. A plurality of Americans are dissatisfied by the Zimmerman verdict, yet a plurality of registered voters are satisfied.
If people see the stand-your-ground law as a leading culprit in the Zimmerman acquittal and want to change it, they need to turn out and vote in 2014.If people see the stand-your-ground law as a leading culprit in the Zimmerman acquittal and want to change it, they need to turn out and vote in 2014.
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