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| Northern exposure: Rudd and Abbott court kingmaking Queensland | Northern exposure: Rudd and Abbott court kingmaking Queensland |
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| You might have noticed it last week – the tremendously unsubtle "Queensland-off" between Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott. The prime minister and the opposition leader and their travelling entourages chased each other up and down the Queensland coast, swapping hard hats and high-visibility fluoro at their faux-campaign whistle stops. | You might have noticed it last week – the tremendously unsubtle "Queensland-off" between Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott. The prime minister and the opposition leader and their travelling entourages chased each other up and down the Queensland coast, swapping hard hats and high-visibility fluoro at their faux-campaign whistle stops. |
| Think of that activity as a harbinger. When the election comes, Australia needs to glance up north, because if Labor is to hold on against the odds, the foundation for doing so in terms of the electoral math will be Queensland. It's a simple proposition: if Labor can insulate itself against losses elsewhere with gains in Queensland, then we have a contest. | Think of that activity as a harbinger. When the election comes, Australia needs to glance up north, because if Labor is to hold on against the odds, the foundation for doing so in terms of the electoral math will be Queensland. It's a simple proposition: if Labor can insulate itself against losses elsewhere with gains in Queensland, then we have a contest. |
| A recent ReachTel poll commissioned by the Working for Queenslanders campaign suggests Rudd has put Labor back in the game in the sunshine state. The big poll of more than 1,600 respondents suggests a positive swing to Labor of 7-8% on a two-party preferred basis since Rudd's return to the prime ministership. A swing of that magnitude, depending on how and where it manifests, could see Labor pick up six seats. | A recent ReachTel poll commissioned by the Working for Queenslanders campaign suggests Rudd has put Labor back in the game in the sunshine state. The big poll of more than 1,600 respondents suggests a positive swing to Labor of 7-8% on a two-party preferred basis since Rudd's return to the prime ministership. A swing of that magnitude, depending on how and where it manifests, could see Labor pick up six seats. |
| ReachTel had Labor's primary vote at just over 40% and the LNP on 44.2%. The state contest is also home to the larger-than-life characters of Clive Palmer and Bob Katter. Both anti-major party movements, the KAP and the PUP, polled in the order of 4% each – but close analysis suggests the protest vote remains soft. There is a sense in terms of the daily reportage that Palmer and Katter are on the wane as political forces, as voters begin to cluster around their major party of choice in a polarising election contest. Many Australians don't want to see another minority parliament federally after the experience of the 43rd parliament, and that environment, with its premium on stability, is beneficial in broad terms to the major parties. | ReachTel had Labor's primary vote at just over 40% and the LNP on 44.2%. The state contest is also home to the larger-than-life characters of Clive Palmer and Bob Katter. Both anti-major party movements, the KAP and the PUP, polled in the order of 4% each – but close analysis suggests the protest vote remains soft. There is a sense in terms of the daily reportage that Palmer and Katter are on the wane as political forces, as voters begin to cluster around their major party of choice in a polarising election contest. Many Australians don't want to see another minority parliament federally after the experience of the 43rd parliament, and that environment, with its premium on stability, is beneficial in broad terms to the major parties. |
| I had a chat to Scott Steel, the pollster for Working for Queensland, to get his thoughts on Katter and Palmer as wildcards in the looming federal poll. He suggests the KAP vote is likely being underestimated as it was in the lead-up to the Queensland state election in 2012. "We still believe that Katter is being underestimated in the polling by 1-2% in the south-east Queensland corner, and up to 4% or so in the regions as they were in the lead-up to the last election. We think we know why as well: it's got to do with men, two groups of men, actually. At the last Queensland election, a lot of Katter's support came in booths where there were relatively higher proportions of older-style industry – transport, farming, mining, small business etc – and as a cohort, those folks are generally harder to reach with polling because of their work hours." | I had a chat to Scott Steel, the pollster for Working for Queensland, to get his thoughts on Katter and Palmer as wildcards in the looming federal poll. He suggests the KAP vote is likely being underestimated as it was in the lead-up to the Queensland state election in 2012. "We still believe that Katter is being underestimated in the polling by 1-2% in the south-east Queensland corner, and up to 4% or so in the regions as they were in the lead-up to the last election. We think we know why as well: it's got to do with men, two groups of men, actually. At the last Queensland election, a lot of Katter's support came in booths where there were relatively higher proportions of older-style industry – transport, farming, mining, small business etc – and as a cohort, those folks are generally harder to reach with polling because of their work hours." |
| Steel says the underestimation problem is compounded because older men don't answer the phone, their wives do. Polling in regional Queensland is basically a nightmare. "It can take you three times as long to get a sample as it does in the city because phones ring out or switch to answering machines, or calls drop out mid-poll." | Steel says the underestimation problem is compounded because older men don't answer the phone, their wives do. Polling in regional Queensland is basically a nightmare. "It can take you three times as long to get a sample as it does in the city because phones ring out or switch to answering machines, or calls drop out mid-poll." |
| And voter perceptions of Clive Palmer? "Palmer is a really mixed bag on the perception side too: big negatives, but big strengths." Steel says once you remove people who are rusted-on supporters of the major parties, "Palmer is seen as meaning well, saying what people think. But people are polarised over whether he's in it for himself, or he's not in it for himself. His biggest weakness on the perception side seems to come from the educated urban middle class who don't treat him seriously. Older folks and blue-collar workers are much more open to him and are less harsh about his perceived eccentricities when you prod them." | And voter perceptions of Clive Palmer? "Palmer is a really mixed bag on the perception side too: big negatives, but big strengths." Steel says once you remove people who are rusted-on supporters of the major parties, "Palmer is seen as meaning well, saying what people think. But people are polarised over whether he's in it for himself, or he's not in it for himself. His biggest weakness on the perception side seems to come from the educated urban middle class who don't treat him seriously. Older folks and blue-collar workers are much more open to him and are less harsh about his perceived eccentricities when you prod them." |
| Labor began to fancy its chances of a political recovery in Queensland late in 2012 when the internal warfare in Canberra died down briefly and the primary vote began to tick up under Julia Gillard. A loathed state Labor government was gone, and Queenslanders had reacted negatively to budget cuts imposed by the incoming LNP premier Campbell Newman. | Labor began to fancy its chances of a political recovery in Queensland late in 2012 when the internal warfare in Canberra died down briefly and the primary vote began to tick up under Julia Gillard. A loathed state Labor government was gone, and Queenslanders had reacted negatively to budget cuts imposed by the incoming LNP premier Campbell Newman. |
| That state-based backlash seemed a decent foundation for a federal campaign: it seemed logical for federal Labor strategists to draw an explicit connection between what Newman had done since coming to government in Brisbane and what Tony Abbott might do in a national drive for budget savings. The Coalition was pounding Labor politically on the theme of debt and deficits (they are bad), but provided few specifics about what it proposed to do in terms of specific budget cuts. Labor could therefore freeform on some hypotheticals in an environment where the Coalition was intent on playing its fiscal cards close to its chest. On the ground Bob Katter was already out in front of Labor – campaigning vociferously against the Newman-led austerity: it was at the centre of his pitch for support in regional Queensland. | That state-based backlash seemed a decent foundation for a federal campaign: it seemed logical for federal Labor strategists to draw an explicit connection between what Newman had done since coming to government in Brisbane and what Tony Abbott might do in a national drive for budget savings. The Coalition was pounding Labor politically on the theme of debt and deficits (they are bad), but provided few specifics about what it proposed to do in terms of specific budget cuts. Labor could therefore freeform on some hypotheticals in an environment where the Coalition was intent on playing its fiscal cards close to its chest. On the ground Bob Katter was already out in front of Labor – campaigning vociferously against the Newman-led austerity: it was at the centre of his pitch for support in regional Queensland. |
| Labor's internal stability in late 2012 of course did not hold – the ALP vote tanked as the leadership fight between Rudd and Gillard entered its decisive phase. Having won back the leadership, it is up to Rudd to close the campaign begun by his predecessor. | Labor's internal stability in late 2012 of course did not hold – the ALP vote tanked as the leadership fight between Rudd and Gillard entered its decisive phase. Having won back the leadership, it is up to Rudd to close the campaign begun by his predecessor. |
| The prime minister brings extra electoral currency as the local boy in a state where politics is dished up with an extra dollop of parochial. Queenslanders never seemed to warm to Julia Gillard. I remember getting a surprise during a campaign visit to Gladstone in 2010. Unionised mining workers, rusted on Labor types, called Gillard "Ronald McDonald" – the red-haired clown from the fast food chain. The moniker was less light handed banter with a visiting journalist from Canberra than undisguised derision. (Labor lost the seat of Flynn, containing Gladstone, in the 2010 election.) | The prime minister brings extra electoral currency as the local boy in a state where politics is dished up with an extra dollop of parochial. Queenslanders never seemed to warm to Julia Gillard. I remember getting a surprise during a campaign visit to Gladstone in 2010. Unionised mining workers, rusted on Labor types, called Gillard "Ronald McDonald" – the red-haired clown from the fast food chain. The moniker was less light handed banter with a visiting journalist from Canberra than undisguised derision. (Labor lost the seat of Flynn, containing Gladstone, in the 2010 election.) |
| Labor's current internal sentiment about its prospects in Queensland is positive. Federally, party unity is holding since the leadership change. Newman has had a scrappy couple of weeks on local issues. Some seats to watch when we move to the campaign proper include Brisbane, Longman, Dawson, Flynn, possibly Hinkler (the longtime National Paul Neville bows out this election), and Herbert (the Townsville seat which stubbornly held out in the 2007 election, and remained with the LNP in 2010 despite heavy local campaigning and bucketloads of promised cash). | Labor's current internal sentiment about its prospects in Queensland is positive. Federally, party unity is holding since the leadership change. Newman has had a scrappy couple of weeks on local issues. Some seats to watch when we move to the campaign proper include Brisbane, Longman, Dawson, Flynn, possibly Hinkler (the longtime National Paul Neville bows out this election), and Herbert (the Townsville seat which stubbornly held out in the 2007 election, and remained with the LNP in 2010 despite heavy local campaigning and bucketloads of promised cash). |
| The government is banking on a basic trend in the party's internal research: many voters still see Tony Abbott as a risk. It's that hesitation factor Labor will use to link Abbott back to Newman and some of his unpopular decisions. Labor's political campaign in terms of the ground game in Queensland is crude but specific: there's an element of doubt about Abbott, hammer it at the local level. Katter and Palmer – and how their preferences are ultimately distributed – remain something of a wildcard in the campaign, particularly if Steel is correct that their support is currently underestimated. Queensland has all the elements of a thriller in 2013. | The government is banking on a basic trend in the party's internal research: many voters still see Tony Abbott as a risk. It's that hesitation factor Labor will use to link Abbott back to Newman and some of his unpopular decisions. Labor's political campaign in terms of the ground game in Queensland is crude but specific: there's an element of doubt about Abbott, hammer it at the local level. Katter and Palmer – and how their preferences are ultimately distributed – remain something of a wildcard in the campaign, particularly if Steel is correct that their support is currently underestimated. Queensland has all the elements of a thriller in 2013. |
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