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| Female voters have the key to Democrats holding the US Senate | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Will Republicans win control of the US Senate in 2014? Election analysts now think the GOP has even odds of picking up the six seats needed to win the majority. | Will Republicans win control of the US Senate in 2014? Election analysts now think the GOP has even odds of picking up the six seats needed to win the majority. |
| No sweat! All Republicans have to do is defeat an incumbent woman Democrat in North Carolina, land of omnibus motorcycle-and-abortion bills, where the GOP governor and legislature are less popular than pro-abortion rights protesters. Republicans just have to hold Georgia, where one candidate thinks Todd Akin was "partially right": | No sweat! All Republicans have to do is defeat an incumbent woman Democrat in North Carolina, land of omnibus motorcycle-and-abortion bills, where the GOP governor and legislature are less popular than pro-abortion rights protesters. Republicans just have to hold Georgia, where one candidate thinks Todd Akin was "partially right": |
| We tell infertile couples all the time … don't be so tense and uptight because all that adrenaline can cause you not to ovulate. | We tell infertile couples all the time … don't be so tense and uptight because all that adrenaline can cause you not to ovulate. |
| And another kicked off 2012's war on women, when she directed the Komen Foundation to cut funding for breast cancer screenings at Planned Parenthood. What could possibly go wrong? | And another kicked off 2012's war on women, when she directed the Komen Foundation to cut funding for breast cancer screenings at Planned Parenthood. What could possibly go wrong? |
| Clearly, Democrats shouldn't hit the panic button just yet. Women can rescue the party – again – if Democrats play their hand right. | Clearly, Democrats shouldn't hit the panic button just yet. Women can rescue the party – again – if Democrats play their hand right. |
| In 2012, women voters favored Obama by a 10pt margin – and helped secure the Senate for Democrats. (Women's votes made the difference in Democratic Senate victories in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Florida.) Back in 2010, however, dissatisfied by the snail's pace of change, feeling ignored by Tea Party-distracted Democrats, millions of women who had voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home. | In 2012, women voters favored Obama by a 10pt margin – and helped secure the Senate for Democrats. (Women's votes made the difference in Democratic Senate victories in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Florida.) Back in 2010, however, dissatisfied by the snail's pace of change, feeling ignored by Tea Party-distracted Democrats, millions of women who had voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home. |
| In polarized America, everything depends on who votes and who doesn't. Midterm elections are low participation affairs, especially among members of the rising American electorate of unmarried women, African Americans, Latinos, and the young. The new political demographic leans Democratic– but what will take to get women to the polls in 2014? | In polarized America, everything depends on who votes and who doesn't. Midterm elections are low participation affairs, especially among members of the rising American electorate of unmarried women, African Americans, Latinos, and the young. The new political demographic leans Democratic– but what will take to get women to the polls in 2014? |
| Anger, for one. A tsunami of anti-women's rights legislation has provoked a full-blown national backlash against the GOP. So far in 2013, nearly 500 restrictions on access to abortion, birth control, and sex education have been moved in Republican-controlled states, according to the Guttmacher Institute. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has also eliminated food stamps from the Farm Bill, slashed Medicaid funding, and repealed the Affordable Care Act – all programs disproportionately benefitting women. | Anger, for one. A tsunami of anti-women's rights legislation has provoked a full-blown national backlash against the GOP. So far in 2013, nearly 500 restrictions on access to abortion, birth control, and sex education have been moved in Republican-controlled states, according to the Guttmacher Institute. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has also eliminated food stamps from the Farm Bill, slashed Medicaid funding, and repealed the Affordable Care Act – all programs disproportionately benefitting women. |
| Jess McIntosh of Emily's List, a 2 million member PAC dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women, tells me that people are more engaged at this point in the cycle than they've ever been before: | Jess McIntosh of Emily's List, a 2 million member PAC dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women, tells me that people are more engaged at this point in the cycle than they've ever been before: |
| The GOP's antics in 2012 brought a lot of new people onto the field. We don't have to spend the time educating them that the secret Republican agenda is to take away rights and opportunities for women. Voters know that, and these gaffes about women feed into the existing narrative. | The GOP's antics in 2012 brought a lot of new people onto the field. We don't have to spend the time educating them that the secret Republican agenda is to take away rights and opportunities for women. Voters know that, and these gaffes about women feed into the existing narrative. |
| Fear over what Republicans could do with more power is one reason to vote. But hope for forward movement, for positive change, can be an even more powerful incentive. | Fear over what Republicans could do with more power is one reason to vote. But hope for forward movement, for positive change, can be an even more powerful incentive. |
| That's what New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi are offering. Gillibrand plans to unveil a women's economic empowerment agenda this fall, premised on the idea that women's economic security isn't just a women's issue, but a universal middle-class issue. The five-point plan will call for action on paid family leave, universal pre-school, affordable childcare, a raise in the minimum wage, and equal pay. | That's what New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi are offering. Gillibrand plans to unveil a women's economic empowerment agenda this fall, premised on the idea that women's economic security isn't just a women's issue, but a universal middle-class issue. The five-point plan will call for action on paid family leave, universal pre-school, affordable childcare, a raise in the minimum wage, and equal pay. |
| Pelosi and three other Democratic House colleagues released a similar plan last week. Democrats up and down the ticket should embrace Gillibrand and Pelosi's pro-women initiatives; it's good policy and good politics. | Pelosi and three other Democratic House colleagues released a similar plan last week. Democrats up and down the ticket should embrace Gillibrand and Pelosi's pro-women initiatives; it's good policy and good politics. |
| Women candidates can also amplify the appeal to women voters, and the 2014 field is shaping up as another banner year. Democrats should be thrilled to have incumbent women carrying the message in North Carolina and Louisiana, two states rated by former New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver as toss-ups. | Women candidates can also amplify the appeal to women voters, and the 2014 field is shaping up as another banner year. Democrats should be thrilled to have incumbent women carrying the message in North Carolina and Louisiana, two states rated by former New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver as toss-ups. |
| North Carolina Republicans, with their stealth attempt to attach anti-abortion measures to a motorcycle safety bill, have given pro-choice Senator Kay Hagan plenty of campaign fodder. To win, Hagan and Louisiana's Mary Landrieu need strong turnout from African Americans and unmarried women. | North Carolina Republicans, with their stealth attempt to attach anti-abortion measures to a motorcycle safety bill, have given pro-choice Senator Kay Hagan plenty of campaign fodder. To win, Hagan and Louisiana's Mary Landrieu need strong turnout from African Americans and unmarried women. |
| As we've seen, that's tough in a midterm year. But according to Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has conducted extensive research on the rising American electorate, African Americans and unmarried women are more prone to vote for women candidates. African Americans are an important voting bloc in both of these southern states, and North Carolina has the ninth highest concentration of unmarried women in the nation. | As we've seen, that's tough in a midterm year. But according to Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has conducted extensive research on the rising American electorate, African Americans and unmarried women are more prone to vote for women candidates. African Americans are an important voting bloc in both of these southern states, and North Carolina has the ninth highest concentration of unmarried women in the nation. |
| In addition, strong women candidates have recently declared their candidacies in two states considered Democratic pick-up opportunities: Georgia and Kentucky. Michelle Nunn is a successful nonprofit executive, the daughter of admired former senator Sam Nunn, and a pro-choice, pro-marriage equality church-goer who recently shared a stage with both the Obamas and the Bushes. Kentucky senate candidate, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, has impressed Democratic party leaders and could flip Kentucky – especially if Republican Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell keeps airing ads with Grimes' voice digitally altered to make her sound like a shrill harpy. | In addition, strong women candidates have recently declared their candidacies in two states considered Democratic pick-up opportunities: Georgia and Kentucky. Michelle Nunn is a successful nonprofit executive, the daughter of admired former senator Sam Nunn, and a pro-choice, pro-marriage equality church-goer who recently shared a stage with both the Obamas and the Bushes. Kentucky senate candidate, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, has impressed Democratic party leaders and could flip Kentucky – especially if Republican Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell keeps airing ads with Grimes' voice digitally altered to make her sound like a shrill harpy. |
| Granted, as election analysts note, the fundamentals of 2014 favor the GOP. Historically, the midterm elections six years into a two-term presidency are a graveyard for the incumbent president's party. But we've been here before, convinced the Senate will fall to the GOP. | Granted, as election analysts note, the fundamentals of 2014 favor the GOP. Historically, the midterm elections six years into a two-term presidency are a graveyard for the incumbent president's party. But we've been here before, convinced the Senate will fall to the GOP. |
| So it was in 2012. Until Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock gabbed about rape. So it was in 2010. Until Sharron Angle advised pregnant teenage rape victims to make lemonade out of "a lemon situation" and Christine O'Donnell was absolutely, no ma'am, not a witch. | So it was in 2012. Until Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock gabbed about rape. So it was in 2010. Until Sharron Angle advised pregnant teenage rape victims to make lemonade out of "a lemon situation" and Christine O'Donnell was absolutely, no ma'am, not a witch. |
| What, besides Republican delirium, did these races have in common? A surge of women voters shut that whole Republican thing down. Everything is in place – the women voters, a pro-women platform, the women candidates – for a repeat performance. One men can applaud, too. | What, besides Republican delirium, did these races have in common? A surge of women voters shut that whole Republican thing down. Everything is in place – the women voters, a pro-women platform, the women candidates – for a repeat performance. One men can applaud, too. |