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This summer Labour cannot rest – or it may lose the battle This summer Labour cannot rest – or it may lose the battle
(2 months later)
Among the Tory tribe it's all hog roasts and summer suits. They broke up for the holidays in a sunny mood, cheered by a combative end-of-term Commons performance from David Cameron and the sense that, along with the weather, their fortunes are finally lifting. The way they see it, they battled through a spring that felt like winter and at last they're getting their reward.Among the Tory tribe it's all hog roasts and summer suits. They broke up for the holidays in a sunny mood, cheered by a combative end-of-term Commons performance from David Cameron and the sense that, along with the weather, their fortunes are finally lifting. The way they see it, they battled through a spring that felt like winter and at last they're getting their reward.
That confidence begins with some encouraging economic numbers, including this week's fall in unemployment as well as a welcome fall in crime and the long-delayed exit of Abu Qatada. It's helped by polls showing Labour's lead in the beatable single digits or even, according to the Guardian/ICM survey, reduced to zero. And it is nurtured by the pep talks of Lynton Crosby, the Australian campaign guru currently credited with honing the Tory message, tilting it in a populist – and rightward – direction and removing anything that might get in the way of its singular focus on immigration, welfare and Labour weakness. Stripping the barnacles off the boat, he calls it – and plenty on the Tory backbenches believe this new, streamlined vessel might just take them to victory, or at least power, in 2015.That confidence begins with some encouraging economic numbers, including this week's fall in unemployment as well as a welcome fall in crime and the long-delayed exit of Abu Qatada. It's helped by polls showing Labour's lead in the beatable single digits or even, according to the Guardian/ICM survey, reduced to zero. And it is nurtured by the pep talks of Lynton Crosby, the Australian campaign guru currently credited with honing the Tory message, tilting it in a populist – and rightward – direction and removing anything that might get in the way of its singular focus on immigration, welfare and Labour weakness. Stripping the barnacles off the boat, he calls it – and plenty on the Tory backbenches believe this new, streamlined vessel might just take them to victory, or at least power, in 2015.
Some of this is July fever, a feelgood factor boosted by the Westminster party circuit going alfresco – including that Downing Street porkfest for Tory MPs hosted by the PM. But there is substance too. Crosby does seem to have brought a unity rare just a couple of months ago, when Tories were slashing each other's wrists over dismal local election results and the rise of Ukip. Whatever their differences, they can all agree on naked aggression directed at Labour. The Tories' biggest current worry, a cabinet minister told the FT, is that they might get over-excited, turning from "irrational depression to … irrational exuberance".Some of this is July fever, a feelgood factor boosted by the Westminster party circuit going alfresco – including that Downing Street porkfest for Tory MPs hosted by the PM. But there is substance too. Crosby does seem to have brought a unity rare just a couple of months ago, when Tories were slashing each other's wrists over dismal local election results and the rise of Ukip. Whatever their differences, they can all agree on naked aggression directed at Labour. The Tories' biggest current worry, a cabinet minister told the FT, is that they might get over-excited, turning from "irrational depression to … irrational exuberance".
Of course, the flipside of this Tory cheer is Labour woe. They end the parliamentary season in a state of humid angst. Even those who dismiss the ICM poll as rogue know their lead is anaemic. With less than two years to go, Labour finds itself perennially on the defensive. This week it was Andy Burnham, called to account for his record as health secretary after the Tories wilfully distorted the Keogh report into those hospitals that had failed or worse. Last week it was Ed Miliband, browbeaten into proposing a change to Labour's union funding arrangements. In recent months, the leader has been pushed into making speeches on both immigration and welfare in order to head off attacks that, Labour feared, were beginning to bite.Of course, the flipside of this Tory cheer is Labour woe. They end the parliamentary season in a state of humid angst. Even those who dismiss the ICM poll as rogue know their lead is anaemic. With less than two years to go, Labour finds itself perennially on the defensive. This week it was Andy Burnham, called to account for his record as health secretary after the Tories wilfully distorted the Keogh report into those hospitals that had failed or worse. Last week it was Ed Miliband, browbeaten into proposing a change to Labour's union funding arrangements. In recent months, the leader has been pushed into making speeches on both immigration and welfare in order to head off attacks that, Labour feared, were beginning to bite.
It doesn't help that the Tories are backed in these assaults by a rightwing media, much of which have recently rediscovered their message discipline. Or that coalition politics leaves Labour forever on the wrong end of a battle of two against one. Labour is grappling with the fate every candidate or political party dreads: not defining itself, but being defined.It doesn't help that the Tories are backed in these assaults by a rightwing media, much of which have recently rediscovered their message discipline. Or that coalition politics leaves Labour forever on the wrong end of a battle of two against one. Labour is grappling with the fate every candidate or political party dreads: not defining itself, but being defined.
Part of this comes with the territory of opposition, a reactive business by definition. But part of it is blamed on Miliband himself. One figure close to the top reports that the leader "consults everyone but listens to no one", complaining of a strategic indecisiveness reminiscent of Gordon Brown: "It's just a state of constant frustration: no one knows how to get a decision made."Part of this comes with the territory of opposition, a reactive business by definition. But part of it is blamed on Miliband himself. One figure close to the top reports that the leader "consults everyone but listens to no one", complaining of a strategic indecisiveness reminiscent of Gordon Brown: "It's just a state of constant frustration: no one knows how to get a decision made."
But the problem surely goes deeper than mere leadership style. It's that Labour still spends too much of its time dealing with aspects of its past – attempting to shake off a reputation as wasteful of the nation's money or a soft touch to newcomers and benefit recipients – that it should have dealt with long ago. Three years on, Miliband is still either defending or repudiating aspects of Labour's record in government. It's the price he pays for not having had a reckoning with the Labour legacy much earlier, publicly spelling out what aspects of the Blair-Brown inheritance he aimed to jettison and what he wanted to keep, honour and extend. Instead, each shift has come gradually, sometimes – as on welfare or immigration – as if dragged out of him under duress.But the problem surely goes deeper than mere leadership style. It's that Labour still spends too much of its time dealing with aspects of its past – attempting to shake off a reputation as wasteful of the nation's money or a soft touch to newcomers and benefit recipients – that it should have dealt with long ago. Three years on, Miliband is still either defending or repudiating aspects of Labour's record in government. It's the price he pays for not having had a reckoning with the Labour legacy much earlier, publicly spelling out what aspects of the Blair-Brown inheritance he aimed to jettison and what he wanted to keep, honour and extend. Instead, each shift has come gradually, sometimes – as on welfare or immigration – as if dragged out of him under duress.
So voters are clear that Miliband believes the Iraq war was a mistake, but what about the rest? Do they know where Labour stands on, say, education? Is the party in favour of free schools and academies, started under Blair, or against them? And why was the most cogent voice against Michael Gove's now-dropped history curriculum Professor Richard Evans rather than the Labour front bench? Naturally, the leadership don't recognise this picture. One senior shadow cabinet member insists that no party just ejected from government could dispense with its past so rapidly. It takes time. Tony Blair, he notes, became leader 15 years after Labour had last been in power, which made dealing with Labour's legacy much easier. "That was never our luxury. We're trying to do this in one parliament."So voters are clear that Miliband believes the Iraq war was a mistake, but what about the rest? Do they know where Labour stands on, say, education? Is the party in favour of free schools and academies, started under Blair, or against them? And why was the most cogent voice against Michael Gove's now-dropped history curriculum Professor Richard Evans rather than the Labour front bench? Naturally, the leadership don't recognise this picture. One senior shadow cabinet member insists that no party just ejected from government could dispense with its past so rapidly. It takes time. Tony Blair, he notes, became leader 15 years after Labour had last been in power, which made dealing with Labour's legacy much easier. "That was never our luxury. We're trying to do this in one parliament."
And what might look like defensiveness is born of a strategy, he insists. Neutralise the potential negatives – immigration, welfare, Europe – now, leaving the path clear to a 2015 battle on terms more favourable to Labour. Central will be the economy. For all the government's hopeful, green-shoots talk now, the recovery is still ultra-fragile. After three flatlined years, most people's standard of living has taken a hit: Ed Balls reckons 2015 might be the first time in the postwar era that a parliament ends leaving a majority of Britons worse off in absolute terms than they were at the start. Allied to it will be fairness, as changes such as the bedroom tax begin to hurt and with focus groups consistently viewing Cameron and George Osborne as on the side of the rich few, rather than the squeezed many.And what might look like defensiveness is born of a strategy, he insists. Neutralise the potential negatives – immigration, welfare, Europe – now, leaving the path clear to a 2015 battle on terms more favourable to Labour. Central will be the economy. For all the government's hopeful, green-shoots talk now, the recovery is still ultra-fragile. After three flatlined years, most people's standard of living has taken a hit: Ed Balls reckons 2015 might be the first time in the postwar era that a parliament ends leaving a majority of Britons worse off in absolute terms than they were at the start. Allied to it will be fairness, as changes such as the bedroom tax begin to hurt and with focus groups consistently viewing Cameron and George Osborne as on the side of the rich few, rather than the squeezed many.
As Labour sees it, this is the struggle now under way. Both sides want 2015 to be a many v few election. Crosby's Tories want to put Labour on the side of the few, defined as foreigners and skivers. Labour wants to put the Tories on the side of the few, defined as millionaires, hedge fund managers and tax-avoiding corporate giants.As Labour sees it, this is the struggle now under way. Both sides want 2015 to be a many v few election. Crosby's Tories want to put Labour on the side of the few, defined as foreigners and skivers. Labour wants to put the Tories on the side of the few, defined as millionaires, hedge fund managers and tax-avoiding corporate giants.
If that is indeed the coming battle, then the Tories are ahead. Even if what looks defensive and reactive is, in fact, all part of an ingenious Labour plan, it feels late and insufficiently sustained: Miliband acts as if a single speech were enough to shut down a problem when, as Blair understood, no message even begins to penetrate until it has been repeated a thousand times.If that is indeed the coming battle, then the Tories are ahead. Even if what looks defensive and reactive is, in fact, all part of an ingenious Labour plan, it feels late and insufficiently sustained: Miliband acts as if a single speech were enough to shut down a problem when, as Blair understood, no message even begins to penetrate until it has been repeated a thousand times.
So Labour heads off into the summer with much to contemplate. "It's a long game," says one member of the high command. Certainly 2015 looks far away. But the shape of the contest is being determined right now.So Labour heads off into the summer with much to contemplate. "It's a long game," says one member of the high command. Certainly 2015 looks far away. But the shape of the contest is being determined right now.
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