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| Back to the future: taking a fresh look at the demographics of youth | Back to the future: taking a fresh look at the demographics of youth |
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| James Grant, the late executive director of Unicef, once famously addressed staff and told them that statistics could shed light on the potential for youth employment, only if they were interpreted properly. He mentioned an unprecedented increase in the number of Elvis impersonators across the United States. Statistics revealed that in the 1960s there were only a couple of registered Elvis impersonators and by the early 1980s this figure had grown to over 2,000. Grant jokingly speculated that if this trend continued, some time in the 21st century one in every five Americans would be an Elvis impersonator! | James Grant, the late executive director of Unicef, once famously addressed staff and told them that statistics could shed light on the potential for youth employment, only if they were interpreted properly. He mentioned an unprecedented increase in the number of Elvis impersonators across the United States. Statistics revealed that in the 1960s there were only a couple of registered Elvis impersonators and by the early 1980s this figure had grown to over 2,000. Grant jokingly speculated that if this trend continued, some time in the 21st century one in every five Americans would be an Elvis impersonator! |
| When making any social predictions we can learn some lessons from the particle physicists who came up with the big bang theory; those who look back in time in order to predict what might occur. By exploring where youth come from, we can better speculate where their future might take them. In this case there is no better set of social statistics to review than those gathered and published by Unicef over 30 years in their annual state of the world's children reports. | When making any social predictions we can learn some lessons from the particle physicists who came up with the big bang theory; those who look back in time in order to predict what might occur. By exploring where youth come from, we can better speculate where their future might take them. In this case there is no better set of social statistics to review than those gathered and published by Unicef over 30 years in their annual state of the world's children reports. |
| First we see it is important where a child is born. The infant mortality rates and the educational opportunities for boys and girls are so different, over 100 less children (for every 1,000 live births) will even be alive in Afghanistan in their teens. Far fewer girls will be educated making the majority of new mother's less aware of the risks to themselves and their young children. In rural areas there is less access to health and education services along with traditions that prevent women from any form of education or job opportunity. | First we see it is important where a child is born. The infant mortality rates and the educational opportunities for boys and girls are so different, over 100 less children (for every 1,000 live births) will even be alive in Afghanistan in their teens. Far fewer girls will be educated making the majority of new mother's less aware of the risks to themselves and their young children. In rural areas there is less access to health and education services along with traditions that prevent women from any form of education or job opportunity. |
| The places where most children struggle and die are the places where most births are taking place. The world's main nursery if you like, is currently in the world's poorest countries and this will likely continue for the next 30 years. | The places where most children struggle and die are the places where most births are taking place. The world's main nursery if you like, is currently in the world's poorest countries and this will likely continue for the next 30 years. |
| During these next 30 years, according to Unicef's latest demographic predictions, "the total number of children being born in the world will soon be at an all time low in terms of percentage of the total population. By 2025 for example there will be an estimated 7.8 billion people on the planet, but only 29% of them will be children, down from a figure of 32% from last year and down from an all time high in 1980 of 41%." | During these next 30 years, according to Unicef's latest demographic predictions, "the total number of children being born in the world will soon be at an all time low in terms of percentage of the total population. By 2025 for example there will be an estimated 7.8 billion people on the planet, but only 29% of them will be children, down from a figure of 32% from last year and down from an all time high in 1980 of 41%." |
| This along with the fact that next century will see anend to human growth, should inevitably change the way the world's economic forces work. From centuries of wealth creation based on a confidence in growth we may enter a time where economic activity will include more refinement and self-correction. The time for preparation for this final count on humankind seems now, since the management of this growth is still in our hands, (whether we level out as a human population of 10 or 12 billion.) The number of humans will never double again, making the next fifty years a very significant time in human history. | This along with the fact that next century will see anend to human growth, should inevitably change the way the world's economic forces work. From centuries of wealth creation based on a confidence in growth we may enter a time where economic activity will include more refinement and self-correction. The time for preparation for this final count on humankind seems now, since the management of this growth is still in our hands, (whether we level out as a human population of 10 or 12 billion.) The number of humans will never double again, making the next fifty years a very significant time in human history. |
| Most political and private powers in the world know the end-game is now on. They know where the world's resources are, how much is left, what they think they will need and they are likely planning towards some form of ownership of it. | Most political and private powers in the world know the end-game is now on. They know where the world's resources are, how much is left, what they think they will need and they are likely planning towards some form of ownership of it. |
| "In the next 15 years the world's under-18 population will only modestly increase but its concentration will change dramatically. By mid-century almost one in every three children born – and one in every three children under 18 – will be African. There will continue to be a concentration of under-five deaths of children being brought up in poor households, and in marginalised districts of least developed countries," Unicef predicts. | "In the next 15 years the world's under-18 population will only modestly increase but its concentration will change dramatically. By mid-century almost one in every three children born – and one in every three children under 18 – will be African. There will continue to be a concentration of under-five deaths of children being brought up in poor households, and in marginalised districts of least developed countries," Unicef predicts. |
| No country has ever been able to bring down its population growth before first bringing down its infant mortality rate. It seems clear that to have any reduction on our final growth numbers we have to maintain interventions to save human lives. Otherwise the growth rates in response to child deaths will remain high. | No country has ever been able to bring down its population growth before first bringing down its infant mortality rate. It seems clear that to have any reduction on our final growth numbers we have to maintain interventions to save human lives. Otherwise the growth rates in response to child deaths will remain high. |
| There is one other statistic that is as misunderstood as the predictions of Elvis impersonators; that of life expectancy in poorer countries. It is mainly because of large number of child deaths that the average life expectancy in these countries is low. If people in poor countries manage to get past their fifth birthday, they are likely to have much the same chance of a healthy life as people in richer countries, with far fewer illnesses of affluence. | There is one other statistic that is as misunderstood as the predictions of Elvis impersonators; that of life expectancy in poorer countries. It is mainly because of large number of child deaths that the average life expectancy in these countries is low. If people in poor countries manage to get past their fifth birthday, they are likely to have much the same chance of a healthy life as people in richer countries, with far fewer illnesses of affluence. |
| Given these predicted demographic shifts it would seem wise to reconfirm essential social services for children and youth now. Once the demographic picture of the future sets into people's minds hopefully the world's nursery will be given the attention it deserves. Also the young immigrant who seeks work in an ageing city or western country might not be looked on as someone stealing a job, but as a young person needed to maintain essential industries and services. Some may also begin to see young immigrants as the children they helped to keep alive with their assistance to the nursery. | Given these predicted demographic shifts it would seem wise to reconfirm essential social services for children and youth now. Once the demographic picture of the future sets into people's minds hopefully the world's nursery will be given the attention it deserves. Also the young immigrant who seeks work in an ageing city or western country might not be looked on as someone stealing a job, but as a young person needed to maintain essential industries and services. Some may also begin to see young immigrants as the children they helped to keep alive with their assistance to the nursery. |
| As the 'management of human activity' becomes the most important thing on the political agenda the results of mankind's collective industry will be judged. As we all harvest ideas of better ways of doing things – from Ted talks to Guardian blogs – it is these demographic facts that belong in the spotlight of our speculations. | As the 'management of human activity' becomes the most important thing on the political agenda the results of mankind's collective industry will be judged. As we all harvest ideas of better ways of doing things – from Ted talks to Guardian blogs – it is these demographic facts that belong in the spotlight of our speculations. |
| George McBean spent most of his working life with Unicef in East Africa, Nepal, the Caribbean and at the HQ in New York. He is now retired and has just begun blogging here | George McBean spent most of his working life with Unicef in East Africa, Nepal, the Caribbean and at the HQ in New York. He is now retired and has just begun blogging here |
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