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| Fewer police officers, fewer crimes | Fewer police officers, fewer crimes |
| (2 months later) | |
| Crime is falling and has been for several years. A decade ago, there were around 6m recorded offences annually. That figure today is 3.7m. | Crime is falling and has been for several years. A decade ago, there were around 6m recorded offences annually. That figure today is 3.7m. |
| That might come as a surprise because in a climate of economic hardship and austerity, some might expect more people to be driven into crime. Also, the number of police officers has dropped by almost 3000 over the same period. So what's happening? | That might come as a surprise because in a climate of economic hardship and austerity, some might expect more people to be driven into crime. Also, the number of police officers has dropped by almost 3000 over the same period. So what's happening? |
| Fewer crimes | Fewer crimes |
| There are two ways of measuring crime, these are: | There are two ways of measuring crime, these are: |
| Recorded crime: A count of everything that is reported to police authorities. It's a good measure of well-reported offences but trends can be influenced by changes in the way that these records are made (there have been two major changes since records began) and it doesn't account for any lag between when a crime occurred and when it was recorded. | Recorded crime: A count of everything that is reported to police authorities. It's a good measure of well-reported offences but trends can be influenced by changes in the way that these records are made (there have been two major changes since records began) and it doesn't account for any lag between when a crime occurred and when it was recorded. |
| Reported crime: This is a representative survey that happens nationally that includes crimes that haven't been reported to the police. The methodology of the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) has never changed so it's good for making comparisons over time but it is subject to all of the problems that surveys face including people not recalling events accurately. | Reported crime: This is a representative survey that happens nationally that includes crimes that haven't been reported to the police. The methodology of the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) has never changed so it's good for making comparisons over time but it is subject to all of the problems that surveys face including people not recalling events accurately. |
| As the chart shows, although this is the fewest number of crimes since records began, there hasn't been a consistent decline since 1981 - reporter crime rose steadily until 1995 and recorded crime fluctuated until 2003. | As the chart shows, although this is the fewest number of crimes since records began, there hasn't been a consistent decline since 1981 - reporter crime rose steadily until 1995 and recorded crime fluctuated until 2003. |
| But, over the past ten years, both of these indicators of crime in England and Wales have fallen consistently. Today, the likelihood of experiencing a crime personally is 1 in 20. | But, over the past ten years, both of these indicators of crime in England and Wales have fallen consistently. Today, the likelihood of experiencing a crime personally is 1 in 20. |
| Fewer police officers | Fewer police officers |
| Also out today are updated figures on the workforce that polices those crimes. In the space of twelve months, 2,358 police officers joined forces across England and Wales - but over the same period, 6,848 officers left. | Also out today are updated figures on the workforce that polices those crimes. In the space of twelve months, 2,358 police officers joined forces across England and Wales - but over the same period, 6,848 officers left. |
| As of March 2013, there were 129,584 police officers in England and Wales - 23% of which are based in Greater London with the Metropolitan police, the greatest regional concentration by far. | As of March 2013, there were 129,584 police officers in England and Wales - 23% of which are based in Greater London with the Metropolitan police, the greatest regional concentration by far. |
| In London, the police force has shrunk by 5.5%, in the South-West it's fallen by 4.1% while smaller areas like Northamptonshire have expanded by 2.7% (you can see the force-by-force changes in the table below). | In London, the police force has shrunk by 5.5%, in the South-West it's fallen by 4.1% while smaller areas like Northamptonshire have expanded by 2.7% (you can see the force-by-force changes in the table below). |
| Possible explanations | Possible explanations |
| The paradox may seem surprising but there are a couple of reasons that might be but forward to explain the trend. Here are a few: | The paradox may seem surprising but there are a couple of reasons that might be but forward to explain the trend. Here are a few: |
| 1. Ineffective? The national police force has only been shrinking since 2010 but crime in England and Wales had started to fall long before then. That doesn't necessarily mean that police officers have no effect on crime - some might argue that there is a strong relationship, albeit a delayed one. | 1. Ineffective? The national police force has only been shrinking since 2010 but crime in England and Wales had started to fall long before then. That doesn't necessarily mean that police officers have no effect on crime - some might argue that there is a strong relationship, albeit a delayed one. |
| Some of the reductions in crime we see today could be the result of increases in policing yesterday (or, between 2003 and 2005 to be precise - when the force swelled with 8,550 additional officers). If true, that would mean that cuts today could reverse some of our fortunes of falling crime in the future. | Some of the reductions in crime we see today could be the result of increases in policing yesterday (or, between 2003 and 2005 to be precise - when the force swelled with 8,550 additional officers). If true, that would mean that cuts today could reverse some of our fortunes of falling crime in the future. |
| 2. Changing types of crime? A closer look at the numbers reveals that not all types of crime are falling. While the number of thefts, drug offences and violent crimes may be declining, crimes that police officers are potentially less-equipped to prevent such as theft from the person, rape and fraud have increased (by 9%, 2% and 27% respectively). | 2. Changing types of crime? A closer look at the numbers reveals that not all types of crime are falling. While the number of thefts, drug offences and violent crimes may be declining, crimes that police officers are potentially less-equipped to prevent such as theft from the person, rape and fraud have increased (by 9%, 2% and 27% respectively). |
| Though there are fewer numbers of those crimes, they may also have a disproportionate impact on people's sense of security - which may explain why falling crime statistics often seem so surprising. | Though there are fewer numbers of those crimes, they may also have a disproportionate impact on people's sense of security - which may explain why falling crime statistics often seem so surprising. |
| 3. A false illusion? Some have claimed that the rise in the number of sexual offences is due to the "Yewtree effect". Our home affairs editor Alan Travis explains: | 3. A false illusion? Some have claimed that the rise in the number of sexual offences is due to the "Yewtree effect". Our home affairs editor Alan Travis explains: |
| greater numbers of victims of sexual attacks have come forward to report historical offences to the police in the wake of the allegations against Jimmy Saville | greater numbers of victims of sexual attacks have come forward to report historical offences to the police in the wake of the allegations against Jimmy Saville |
If the theory holds true for sexual offences, it may also be that public perceptions about police inefficacy could result in a lower reporting rate for other types of crime. The CSEW is supposed to overcome that potential flaw in the data but apathy could also affect survey responses. | If the theory holds true for sexual offences, it may also be that public perceptions about police inefficacy could result in a lower reporting rate for other types of crime. The CSEW is supposed to overcome that potential flaw in the data but apathy could also affect survey responses. |
| Whatever the reason for the apparent disconnect between crime levels and police numbers, it's likely that criminologists will be keeping a close eye on future statistics to see the impact of further budget cuts. | Whatever the reason for the apparent disconnect between crime levels and police numbers, it's likely that criminologists will be keeping a close eye on future statistics to see the impact of further budget cuts. |
| Full summary of changes to police forces | Full summary of changes to police forces |
| Changes to workforce numbers | Changes to workforce numbers |
| Click heading to sort | Click heading to sort |
| Data | Data |
| • Download the full spreadsheet | • Download the full spreadsheet |
| Can you do more with this data? | Can you do more with this data? |
| • Email us at data@guardian.co.uk • Follow us on Twitter • Like us on Facebook • Post a comment below | • Email us at data@guardian.co.uk • Follow us on Twitter • Like us on Facebook • Post a comment below |
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