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| Liz Cheney's underwhelming ad makes weak bid for Wyoming Senate seat | Liz Cheney's underwhelming ad makes weak bid for Wyoming Senate seat |
| (2 months later) | |
| Who | Who |
| Former Vice-President Dick Cheney's older daughter, Liz Cheney. Liz Cheney has been involved in Republican politics for an extended period of time. She spent two stints in the State Department in the George W Bush administration. She worked on Bush's 2004 re-election campaign and as a co-chair on Fred Thompson's 2008 presidential campaign. Most recently, she's been in the public eye as a Fox News contributor. | Former Vice-President Dick Cheney's older daughter, Liz Cheney. Liz Cheney has been involved in Republican politics for an extended period of time. She spent two stints in the State Department in the George W Bush administration. She worked on Bush's 2004 re-election campaign and as a co-chair on Fred Thompson's 2008 presidential campaign. Most recently, she's been in the public eye as a Fox News contributor. |
| What | What |
| Cheney announced her campaign for the US Senate from Wyoming in 2014. Though she failed to mention it directly, she's challenging fellow Republican incumbent Mike Enzi. Considering that Wyoming went for Mitt Romney by 41pt over President Obama, winning the primary is tantamount to winning the Senate seat. | Cheney announced her campaign for the US Senate from Wyoming in 2014. Though she failed to mention it directly, she's challenging fellow Republican incumbent Mike Enzi. Considering that Wyoming went for Mitt Romney by 41pt over President Obama, winning the primary is tantamount to winning the Senate seat. |
| When | When |
| The ad was released on Tuesday afternoon, 16 July. | The ad was released on Tuesday afternoon, 16 July. |
| Where | Where |
| It's had web distribution, but no sign that it's been released on television in Wyoming. At a little less than six minutes long, the ad in its current incarnation would almost certainly be cut down for broadcast. Most likely, this ad will not air in Wyoming; it's aimed at people in Washington, DC and those who follow politics closely. | It's had web distribution, but no sign that it's been released on television in Wyoming. At a little less than six minutes long, the ad in its current incarnation would almost certainly be cut down for broadcast. Most likely, this ad will not air in Wyoming; it's aimed at people in Washington, DC and those who follow politics closely. |
| How | How |
| The strangest aspect is how Cheney managed to keep it going for 5 minutes and 47 seconds without a break: there are no cut aways. All she does is stare into the camera with what I believe is the family farm in the background. You feel riveted in place watching it, but not in a good way. | The strangest aspect is how Cheney managed to keep it going for 5 minutes and 47 seconds without a break: there are no cut aways. All she does is stare into the camera with what I believe is the family farm in the background. You feel riveted in place watching it, but not in a good way. |
| The farm setting is no mistake. Most experts expected Cheney to run for public office eventually; they just weren't sure where she was going to do it. She had lived in Virginia until recently, but moved back to Wyoming in likely preparation for this run. The farm background aims to tell Cowboy State voters she's "one of them". | The farm setting is no mistake. Most experts expected Cheney to run for public office eventually; they just weren't sure where she was going to do it. She had lived in Virginia until recently, but moved back to Wyoming in likely preparation for this run. The farm background aims to tell Cowboy State voters she's "one of them". |
| Cheney plays up to this by talking about her family's roots in Wyoming, but she quickly pivots to discussing national political affairs, with vaguer statements about the relationship between government and people: the deficit, lower taxes, and less government interference are emphasized – that is, Republican boilerplate. | Cheney plays up to this by talking about her family's roots in Wyoming, but she quickly pivots to discussing national political affairs, with vaguer statements about the relationship between government and people: the deficit, lower taxes, and less government interference are emphasized – that is, Republican boilerplate. |
| Not mentioned is Mike Enzi, the incumbent GOP senator. Enzi has announced that he is going to run for another term. | Not mentioned is Mike Enzi, the incumbent GOP senator. Enzi has announced that he is going to run for another term. |
| Nowhere in Cheney's ad does she make a strong argument for unseating him. In fact, it is entirely possible that Cheney planned to run this ad regardless of whether or not Enzi declared his desire to be re-elected. | Nowhere in Cheney's ad does she make a strong argument for unseating him. In fact, it is entirely possible that Cheney planned to run this ad regardless of whether or not Enzi declared his desire to be re-elected. |
| But in that case, why would Wyoming Republicans want to replace Enzi with someone who holds almost identical positions? Enzi's voting record made him the 11th most conservative senator in the last Congress, while Wyoming's other Republican senator was the 12th most conservative. This places Enzi far to the right of other Republicans who have been deemed not conservative enough by primary electorates over the past few years. | But in that case, why would Wyoming Republicans want to replace Enzi with someone who holds almost identical positions? Enzi's voting record made him the 11th most conservative senator in the last Congress, while Wyoming's other Republican senator was the 12th most conservative. This places Enzi far to the right of other Republicans who have been deemed not conservative enough by primary electorates over the past few years. |
| Cheney will likely try to play up her opposition to the internet sales tax, an issue on which most Republicans are opposed. But how many people will actually care enough about the internet sales tax to vote on it as a single issue? | Cheney will likely try to play up her opposition to the internet sales tax, an issue on which most Republicans are opposed. But how many people will actually care enough about the internet sales tax to vote on it as a single issue? |
| Cheney is expected to be in favor of gay marriage, yet Enzi's position against it is almost certainly the majority position in Wyoming. The Republican-controlled state legislature just voted it and a lesser domestic partnership bill down. A poll in more liberal neighboring Montana found most people were against it (pdf), including 84% of Republicans. That number might well undershoot opposition in Wyoming. | Cheney is expected to be in favor of gay marriage, yet Enzi's position against it is almost certainly the majority position in Wyoming. The Republican-controlled state legislature just voted it and a lesser domestic partnership bill down. A poll in more liberal neighboring Montana found most people were against it (pdf), including 84% of Republicans. That number might well undershoot opposition in Wyoming. |
| Cheney might try to say that Enzi has been in Washington too long. But I'm willing to bet that Enzi has spent more days in Wyoming over the past few years than Cheney. Enzi has actually lived in the state for over 40 years, whereas Cheney has been living just outside Washington, DC. If she goes that route, Cheney will open herself up to counter-attacks. | Cheney might try to say that Enzi has been in Washington too long. But I'm willing to bet that Enzi has spent more days in Wyoming over the past few years than Cheney. Enzi has actually lived in the state for over 40 years, whereas Cheney has been living just outside Washington, DC. If she goes that route, Cheney will open herself up to counter-attacks. |
| Conclusion | Conclusion |
| The truth is that Liz Cheney is going to need more than just good name recognition to defeat incumbent Mike Enzi. She'll need a strong message if she's going to beat a man who, when last polled, had a 76% approval rating from Republicans statewide. This ad did not begin to articulate what that message would be. | The truth is that Liz Cheney is going to need more than just good name recognition to defeat incumbent Mike Enzi. She'll need a strong message if she's going to beat a man who, when last polled, had a 76% approval rating from Republicans statewide. This ad did not begin to articulate what that message would be. |
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