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| Will Weiner be a winner and can Stringer make Spitzer a loser? | Will Weiner be a winner and can Stringer make Spitzer a loser? |
| (2 months later) | |
| The latest surveys from Marist and Quinnipiac have Anthony Weiner and Eliot Spitzer leading the mayoral and comptroller primaries respectively. But will that hold? | The latest surveys from Marist and Quinnipiac have Anthony Weiner and Eliot Spitzer leading the mayoral and comptroller primaries respectively. But will that hold? |
| Democratic mayoral primary: Weiner v Quinn v the rest | Democratic mayoral primary: Weiner v Quinn v the rest |
| For the first time in the campaign, one can easily paint a picture that would have Weiner winning both the primary and the runoff. Weiner leads by 25% to 22% over City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in the Quinnipiac survey released on Monday. It's not the top line, however, that should make Weiner smile. It's the fact that Quinn is in her weakest position yet against Weiner for the runoff, which will be held if no candidate reaches a threshold of 40% in the first round. | For the first time in the campaign, one can easily paint a picture that would have Weiner winning both the primary and the runoff. Weiner leads by 25% to 22% over City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in the Quinnipiac survey released on Monday. It's not the top line, however, that should make Weiner smile. It's the fact that Quinn is in her weakest position yet against Weiner for the runoff, which will be held if no candidate reaches a threshold of 40% in the first round. |
| Quinn's net favorable rating among Democrats is only +5pt. This is an amazing 50pt drop since January. It's also a 16pt decline from just late June. Weiner, on the other hand, has a +6pt net favorable rating. That's stayed relatively steady, if not risen somewhat, since he entered the race. Marist's poll in late June, which had Weiner ahead by 5pt, discovered an even higher rise in his favorables. | Quinn's net favorable rating among Democrats is only +5pt. This is an amazing 50pt drop since January. It's also a 16pt decline from just late June. Weiner, on the other hand, has a +6pt net favorable rating. That's stayed relatively steady, if not risen somewhat, since he entered the race. Marist's poll in late June, which had Weiner ahead by 5pt, discovered an even higher rise in his favorables. |
| Though Quinnipiac didn't specifically poll the runoff, previous surveys by Marist indicated that Weiner was actually outperforming Quinn relative to their favorable ratings. So, I would guess that Weiner is probably ahead in a runoff against an opponent who is actually more disliked than he is. | Though Quinnipiac didn't specifically poll the runoff, previous surveys by Marist indicated that Weiner was actually outperforming Quinn relative to their favorable ratings. So, I would guess that Weiner is probably ahead in a runoff against an opponent who is actually more disliked than he is. |
| Quinn's weakness is not any personal life foible. Most likely, it's because of outside campaigns linking her to Mayor Bloomberg, who is disliked by a substantial portion of the Democratic electorate, especially for her approval of a rule-changing extra term for Bloomberg. It will be difficult for her to unite the anti-Weiner vote in a runoff. | Quinn's weakness is not any personal life foible. Most likely, it's because of outside campaigns linking her to Mayor Bloomberg, who is disliked by a substantial portion of the Democratic electorate, especially for her approval of a rule-changing extra term for Bloomberg. It will be difficult for her to unite the anti-Weiner vote in a runoff. |
| So Weiner, at this point, has to be considered the favorite in a runoff. | So Weiner, at this point, has to be considered the favorite in a runoff. |
| The most likely way Weiner could lose is if either current Public Advocate Bill de Blasio or former Comptroller Bill Thompson reach the runoff. They're both polling in the low teens in the first round – well behind Quinn. But both have far higher net favorables (+30pt or more), depending on whether you look at Marist or Quinnipiac. Their problem is the same: each is relatively unknown, with about 50% of those surveyed expressing no opinion of them, per Quinnipiac, as opposed to only 20% having no view of Weiner. | The most likely way Weiner could lose is if either current Public Advocate Bill de Blasio or former Comptroller Bill Thompson reach the runoff. They're both polling in the low teens in the first round – well behind Quinn. But both have far higher net favorables (+30pt or more), depending on whether you look at Marist or Quinnipiac. Their problem is the same: each is relatively unknown, with about 50% of those surveyed expressing no opinion of them, per Quinnipiac, as opposed to only 20% having no view of Weiner. |
| Both De Blasio and Thompson will benefit from the city's public financing system, which will allow them to get their name out there more. The question is whether they will really break through in the media. That could prove difficult given that the press will likely focus on the Weiner-Quinn dynamic, as well as on Spitzer in the comptroller race. | Both De Blasio and Thompson will benefit from the city's public financing system, which will allow them to get their name out there more. The question is whether they will really break through in the media. That could prove difficult given that the press will likely focus on the Weiner-Quinn dynamic, as well as on Spitzer in the comptroller race. |
| Thompson likely has the best chance. I believe that surveys are underestimating Thompson's share of the black vote (he is the only African-American candidate). I still think that's the case, but any underestimation effect would not be so great as to change the current ordering of the top line in either the Marist or the Quinnipiac polls, which have him at least 7pt behind Quinn. He'll need to get closer than he is currently to count on any survey under-count effect putting him over the top. | Thompson likely has the best chance. I believe that surveys are underestimating Thompson's share of the black vote (he is the only African-American candidate). I still think that's the case, but any underestimation effect would not be so great as to change the current ordering of the top line in either the Marist or the Quinnipiac polls, which have him at least 7pt behind Quinn. He'll need to get closer than he is currently to count on any survey under-count effect putting him over the top. |
| All this said, New York City mayoral primaries have a tendency to break late. This is especially the case when all the candidates are relatively close together. Today's polling isn't necessarily predictive of tomorrow's. | All this said, New York City mayoral primaries have a tendency to break late. This is especially the case when all the candidates are relatively close together. Today's polling isn't necessarily predictive of tomorrow's. |
| Spitzer v Stringer for comptroller | Spitzer v Stringer for comptroller |
| A very different dynamic is at play in the comptroller race. Spitzer leads Scott Stringer 48% to 33% (Quinnipiac), and 42% to 33% (Marist), respectively. He has a better net favorable than either Quinn or Weiner at +21pt. Do a better net favorable and a bigger lead mean that Spitzer is more likely to win? | A very different dynamic is at play in the comptroller race. Spitzer leads Scott Stringer 48% to 33% (Quinnipiac), and 42% to 33% (Marist), respectively. He has a better net favorable than either Quinn or Weiner at +21pt. Do a better net favorable and a bigger lead mean that Spitzer is more likely to win? |
| That is one way to look at it. Indeed, I'd be the first to admit that I'm surprised that Spitzer is polling so well despite his sex scandal past. Still, I'd argue that the one-on-one dynamic against Stringer puts him at an inherent disadvantage: it's a zero-sum game and if Stringer moves up, he'll eat into Spitzer's numbers. In the mayoral race, the dynamic is different: De Blasio or Thompson may be able to take votes off each other, or off either Weiner or Quinn. | That is one way to look at it. Indeed, I'd be the first to admit that I'm surprised that Spitzer is polling so well despite his sex scandal past. Still, I'd argue that the one-on-one dynamic against Stringer puts him at an inherent disadvantage: it's a zero-sum game and if Stringer moves up, he'll eat into Spitzer's numbers. In the mayoral race, the dynamic is different: De Blasio or Thompson may be able to take votes off each other, or off either Weiner or Quinn. |
| Spitzer enjoys the best name recognition of any of the candidates in either race, with only 15% not holding an opinion of him per Quinnipiac. Stringer has the lowest name recognition, with 63% saying they didn't know how they feel about the current Manhattan borough president. That low number almost certainly will not hold as the contest heats up. | Spitzer enjoys the best name recognition of any of the candidates in either race, with only 15% not holding an opinion of him per Quinnipiac. Stringer has the lowest name recognition, with 63% saying they didn't know how they feel about the current Manhattan borough president. That low number almost certainly will not hold as the contest heats up. |
| While elected officials and labor unions are split as to who they support in the mayoral race, they are almost uniformly behind Stringer in the comptroller election. Stringer will have raised at least $5-6m including matching funds. The press will also likely pay more attention to Stringer in this race than to either De Blasio or Thompson in the mayoral primary, because he's the only opponent Spitzer has. That should help Stringer boost his name identification hugely. | While elected officials and labor unions are split as to who they support in the mayoral race, they are almost uniformly behind Stringer in the comptroller election. Stringer will have raised at least $5-6m including matching funds. The press will also likely pay more attention to Stringer in this race than to either De Blasio or Thompson in the mayoral primary, because he's the only opponent Spitzer has. That should help Stringer boost his name identification hugely. |
| As Stringer's name recognition goes up, his polling against Spitzer should as well. Spitzer is up by 35pt among black voters in the Quinnipiac poll, yet 72% have no opinion of Stringer. Spitzer leads by 20pt among Latinos, as 76% have no opinion of Stringer. The one racial group Stringer does lead Spitzer among is whites, partially because a much lower 46% have no opinion of Stringer. Among all groups, Stringer has a better favorable to unfavorable ratio. His ratio overall is a little better than 3:1, while it is only about half that for Spitzer. | As Stringer's name recognition goes up, his polling against Spitzer should as well. Spitzer is up by 35pt among black voters in the Quinnipiac poll, yet 72% have no opinion of Stringer. Spitzer leads by 20pt among Latinos, as 76% have no opinion of Stringer. The one racial group Stringer does lead Spitzer among is whites, partially because a much lower 46% have no opinion of Stringer. Among all groups, Stringer has a better favorable to unfavorable ratio. His ratio overall is a little better than 3:1, while it is only about half that for Spitzer. |
| This graph by Mark Blumenthal tells the story. | This graph by Mark Blumenthal tells the story. |
| Stringer's deficit by borough is directly related to how well Stringer is liked. Where he is best known and liked, in Manhattan, he is polling the best. Where he is least liked and least known, in Queens and Staten Island, he is polling the worst. | Stringer's deficit by borough is directly related to how well Stringer is liked. Where he is best known and liked, in Manhattan, he is polling the best. Where he is least liked and least known, in Queens and Staten Island, he is polling the worst. |
| In short, I don't think Spitzer's lead is as strong as the top line suggests. It should fade as Stringer becomes better known. Weiner's advantage over Quinn is more secure, but he has to look out for the better-liked De Blasio and Thompson. With public financing of candidates the rule and most voters not yet tuned in, anything can still happen. | In short, I don't think Spitzer's lead is as strong as the top line suggests. It should fade as Stringer becomes better known. Weiner's advantage over Quinn is more secure, but he has to look out for the better-liked De Blasio and Thompson. With public financing of candidates the rule and most voters not yet tuned in, anything can still happen. |
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