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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| This poll is bad news for Labour, however you spin it | This poll is bad news for Labour, however you spin it |
| (2 months later) | |
| Pity the Labour operative tasked with drafting the talking points in response to Tuesday's Guardian/ICM poll, which shows Labour and the Tories level for the first time in nearly 18 months. You know what they'll say. That this is, if not exactly a rogue poll, then its more polite cousin, an "outlier". That other polls, including YouGov's daily tracker, have Labour as much as nine points ahead. That even this ICM poll shows no drop in Labour support, but simply a reordering on the right of British politics – with Ukip falling back and the Tories regaining the ground they had lost to Nigel Farage's party. Maybe they'll even try this oldie but goldie: that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. | Pity the Labour operative tasked with drafting the talking points in response to Tuesday's Guardian/ICM poll, which shows Labour and the Tories level for the first time in nearly 18 months. You know what they'll say. That this is, if not exactly a rogue poll, then its more polite cousin, an "outlier". That other polls, including YouGov's daily tracker, have Labour as much as nine points ahead. That even this ICM poll shows no drop in Labour support, but simply a reordering on the right of British politics – with Ukip falling back and the Tories regaining the ground they had lost to Nigel Farage's party. Maybe they'll even try this oldie but goldie: that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. |
| All of those lines of defence are true enough. But none of them stops this being bad news for Labour. The plain truth is that less than two years away from the next election, the party should be doing much, much better. | All of those lines of defence are true enough. But none of them stops this being bad news for Labour. The plain truth is that less than two years away from the next election, the party should be doing much, much better. |
| For even if that rosier, YouGov figure of 9% is right, it's not good enough. I've heard pollsters say that no opposition party has won a majority without leading at some point by 20%. That might be asking too much in the era of four-party politics, but on any measure the current size of the Labour lead – often in the single digits – is too narrow for comfort. Given the economic climate, with signs of recovery still tentative and few, and with the standard of living for so many so badly hit, the party of opposition at midterm should be in a much stronger position. | For even if that rosier, YouGov figure of 9% is right, it's not good enough. I've heard pollsters say that no opposition party has won a majority without leading at some point by 20%. That might be asking too much in the era of four-party politics, but on any measure the current size of the Labour lead – often in the single digits – is too narrow for comfort. Given the economic climate, with signs of recovery still tentative and few, and with the standard of living for so many so badly hit, the party of opposition at midterm should be in a much stronger position. |
| That's reflected in the defensiveness that seems to characterise much of Labour's current stance. Oppositions are, by definition, usually in the reaction business. But this goes deeper than the daily response to government policy. | That's reflected in the defensiveness that seems to characterise much of Labour's current stance. Oppositions are, by definition, usually in the reaction business. But this goes deeper than the daily response to government policy. |
| Two examples. First, the Tories' attack on Labour as "the welfare party" is hurting. Polls and focus groups suggest there is a public perception of Labour as the layabout's friend and "the welfare party" tag hits that nerve. The result is that Labour is constantly facing traps set by the Conservatives, the latter daring the former to oppose this or that crackdown on benefits. They are struggling to define themselves rather than be defined. | Two examples. First, the Tories' attack on Labour as "the welfare party" is hurting. Polls and focus groups suggest there is a public perception of Labour as the layabout's friend and "the welfare party" tag hits that nerve. The result is that Labour is constantly facing traps set by the Conservatives, the latter daring the former to oppose this or that crackdown on benefits. They are struggling to define themselves rather than be defined. |
| Second, last week's move by Ed Miliband on union funding for Labour won widespread praise for turning a crisis into an opportunity. His attacks on David Cameron's hedge-fund sugar daddies was adroit and the usually hostile press was delighted to see a Labour leader confront the trade unions. There are plenty who believe the model to follow is Tony Blair's clause IV battles of the early 1990s, when Blair proved he was ready to run the country by taking on his own party. | Second, last week's move by Ed Miliband on union funding for Labour won widespread praise for turning a crisis into an opportunity. His attacks on David Cameron's hedge-fund sugar daddies was adroit and the usually hostile press was delighted to see a Labour leader confront the trade unions. There are plenty who believe the model to follow is Tony Blair's clause IV battles of the early 1990s, when Blair proved he was ready to run the country by taking on his own party. |
| But while that worked 20 years ago, its effectiveness today is less than certain. The risk is that Miliband turns inward, confronting his own side rather than the government – talking about internal party matters rather than his plan for the country. | But while that worked 20 years ago, its effectiveness today is less than certain. The risk is that Miliband turns inward, confronting his own side rather than the government – talking about internal party matters rather than his plan for the country. |
| Both Miliband and Labour need to break through and get the public's attention. Today's poll suggests that moment is still some way off. | Both Miliband and Labour need to break through and get the public's attention. Today's poll suggests that moment is still some way off. |
| Twitter: @freedland | Twitter: @freedland |
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