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| Egypt's overthrow of Morsi creates uncertainty for Islamists everywhere | Egypt's overthrow of Morsi creates uncertainty for Islamists everywhere |
| (2 months later) | |
| It was a Ramadan gift with a difference: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates dipped into their oil revenues this week to stump up a cool $12bn (£8bn) to bail out cash-strapped Egypt – a swift reward for the army's removal of President Mohamed Morsi and the stunning blow to his Muslim Brotherhood. | It was a Ramadan gift with a difference: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates dipped into their oil revenues this week to stump up a cool $12bn (£8bn) to bail out cash-strapped Egypt – a swift reward for the army's removal of President Mohamed Morsi and the stunning blow to his Muslim Brotherhood. |
| Morsi's removal was a big moment in the unfinished story of the Egyptian revolution. But it is also posing troubling questions for Islamists elsewhere. Can they hold on to power where they have it or win it where they do not? And does the coup against the democratically elected leader of the Arab world's largest country – albeit an unpopular and incompetent one – mean that others will shun the ballot box and turn to violence? | Morsi's removal was a big moment in the unfinished story of the Egyptian revolution. But it is also posing troubling questions for Islamists elsewhere. Can they hold on to power where they have it or win it where they do not? And does the coup against the democratically elected leader of the Arab world's largest country – albeit an unpopular and incompetent one – mean that others will shun the ballot box and turn to violence? |
| Egypt's Brotherhood is calling it a "naksa" (setback in Arabic). "It is like 9/11 in its magnitude," argues the independent Saudi historian Madawi al-Rasheed. "The Muslim Brothers managed to repackage themselves as moderate Islamists. Hopes were raised after the 2011 uprisings and now they are back at square one." | Egypt's Brotherhood is calling it a "naksa" (setback in Arabic). "It is like 9/11 in its magnitude," argues the independent Saudi historian Madawi al-Rasheed. "The Muslim Brothers managed to repackage themselves as moderate Islamists. Hopes were raised after the 2011 uprisings and now they are back at square one." |
| Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, keen to portray his enemies as jihadi fanatics, went so far as to hail the "fall of political Islam" when Morsi was deposed. That put Assad in rare agreement with Saudi Arabia, which is backing the rebels who are fighting to overthrow him. Turkey and Tunisia, where Islamist parties rule, both condemned the Cairo coup. So did Iran. | Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, keen to portray his enemies as jihadi fanatics, went so far as to hail the "fall of political Islam" when Morsi was deposed. That put Assad in rare agreement with Saudi Arabia, which is backing the rebels who are fighting to overthrow him. Turkey and Tunisia, where Islamist parties rule, both condemned the Cairo coup. So did Iran. |
| The financial largesse from the Gulf is about both strategy and politics: the Saudis want Egypt to confront Iran and to stay close to the US. But it also reflects domestic concerns about the Brotherhood's rival brand of political Islam. Another factor is dislike of their own maverick neighbour Qatar, which bankrolled Egypt during Morsi's year in power and cheered him on through al-Jazeera, the Doha-based satellite TV channel. | The financial largesse from the Gulf is about both strategy and politics: the Saudis want Egypt to confront Iran and to stay close to the US. But it also reflects domestic concerns about the Brotherhood's rival brand of political Islam. Another factor is dislike of their own maverick neighbour Qatar, which bankrolled Egypt during Morsi's year in power and cheered him on through al-Jazeera, the Doha-based satellite TV channel. |
| "The Gulf states can live with a weak but obedient Egypt but not with a troubled Egypt with an erratic foreign policy," said Emile Hokayem of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. "They need to know their western flank is secure at a time when the Levant is in upheaval and when Iraq and Iran are on opposite sides of every strategic issue." | "The Gulf states can live with a weak but obedient Egypt but not with a troubled Egypt with an erratic foreign policy," said Emile Hokayem of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. "They need to know their western flank is secure at a time when the Levant is in upheaval and when Iraq and Iran are on opposite sides of every strategic issue." |
| It all has echoes of the regional cold war of the 1960s when Egypt's Gamal Abdel-Nasser spearheaded the Arab nationalist struggle against reactionary monarchies. Then, as now, the kings, sheikhs and emirs were led by the Saudis, who are no happier than Assad with the democratic or Islamist advances of the Arab spring. | It all has echoes of the regional cold war of the 1960s when Egypt's Gamal Abdel-Nasser spearheaded the Arab nationalist struggle against reactionary monarchies. Then, as now, the kings, sheikhs and emirs were led by the Saudis, who are no happier than Assad with the democratic or Islamist advances of the Arab spring. |
| Experts warn that defeat for the Brotherhood may boost the standing of radical Islamists who never believed in democracy or elections anyway, and cite the examples of Algeria in 1991 and Hamas in Palestine in 2006 to prove that they will not be allowed to take power. Old videos are circulating again of the al-Qaida leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, making exactly that point. "Morsi and the Brotherhood were in a place where they bore responsibility," says Nadim Shehadi of Chatham House. "Now they can claim victimhood and the extremists will gain credibility." | Experts warn that defeat for the Brotherhood may boost the standing of radical Islamists who never believed in democracy or elections anyway, and cite the examples of Algeria in 1991 and Hamas in Palestine in 2006 to prove that they will not be allowed to take power. Old videos are circulating again of the al-Qaida leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, making exactly that point. "Morsi and the Brotherhood were in a place where they bore responsibility," says Nadim Shehadi of Chatham House. "Now they can claim victimhood and the extremists will gain credibility." |
| The Muslim Brotherhood, born in Egypt, is the world's oldest Islamist movement. It has spent decades in open political activity, evolving and moderating its hybrid discourse, though never fully resolving the tensions between democracy and religion. But it is not alone. | The Muslim Brotherhood, born in Egypt, is the world's oldest Islamist movement. It has spent decades in open political activity, evolving and moderating its hybrid discourse, though never fully resolving the tensions between democracy and religion. But it is not alone. |
| Ultra-conservative Salafis – often with Saudi backing – did well in last year's Egyptian parliamentary elections. Other groups – one led by Zawahiri's brother – have abandoned terrorism but might yet return to jihad. Egypt now has its own branch of Ansar al-Sharia, which emerged in Libya as part of a growing regional network. Al-Qaida has recruited frustrated young Islamists who have mounted attacks in Sinai, intensifying in recent days. | Ultra-conservative Salafis – often with Saudi backing – did well in last year's Egyptian parliamentary elections. Other groups – one led by Zawahiri's brother – have abandoned terrorism but might yet return to jihad. Egypt now has its own branch of Ansar al-Sharia, which emerged in Libya as part of a growing regional network. Al-Qaida has recruited frustrated young Islamists who have mounted attacks in Sinai, intensifying in recent days. |
| Egyptians who welcomed the military's move against Morsi believe the Brotherhood's decline is part of a wider trend. "I am convinced that we are seeing the twilight of the Islamic revival not only in Egypt but across the Arab world," said the leftist commentator Hani Shukrullah. "For a while it was the only alternative to secular dictatorship. That was the conventional wisdom for 30 years. It no longer is." | Egyptians who welcomed the military's move against Morsi believe the Brotherhood's decline is part of a wider trend. "I am convinced that we are seeing the twilight of the Islamic revival not only in Egypt but across the Arab world," said the leftist commentator Hani Shukrullah. "For a while it was the only alternative to secular dictatorship. That was the conventional wisdom for 30 years. It no longer is." |
| Another, more benign, possibility is that Islamists elsewhere will learn lessons from the Egyptian experience and act differently, eschewing a power grab and following the example of the Tunisian and Moroccan movements of working in coalition with other parties. | Another, more benign, possibility is that Islamists elsewhere will learn lessons from the Egyptian experience and act differently, eschewing a power grab and following the example of the Tunisian and Moroccan movements of working in coalition with other parties. |
| Egypt's Brotherhood may have been booted out of office, but it is still a large social and religious movement with an impressive and adaptable organisational structure. "It's too early to write the group's obituary," suggests the analyst Elijah Zarwan. "They still have millions of adherents and sympathisers, and many variables are still in play. Its future is unclear, certainly, but much still depends on the decisions they and their opponents make now." | Egypt's Brotherhood may have been booted out of office, but it is still a large social and religious movement with an impressive and adaptable organisational structure. "It's too early to write the group's obituary," suggests the analyst Elijah Zarwan. "They still have millions of adherents and sympathisers, and many variables are still in play. Its future is unclear, certainly, but much still depends on the decisions they and their opponents make now." |
| If reports of its death have been exaggerated, its rank and file are indeed defiant – and certain about what matters most to them, especially after the army's crackdown and the massacre of more than 50 supporters in Cairo on Monday. "The Saudis and Emiratis have sent aid to bless the military coup and celebrate what they believe is the fall of the Islamic project," said Brotherhood organiser Mohamed Abdel-Fatah. "But it will not fall." | If reports of its death have been exaggerated, its rank and file are indeed defiant – and certain about what matters most to them, especially after the army's crackdown and the massacre of more than 50 supporters in Cairo on Monday. "The Saudis and Emiratis have sent aid to bless the military coup and celebrate what they believe is the fall of the Islamic project," said Brotherhood organiser Mohamed Abdel-Fatah. "But it will not fall." |
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