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| Crime, teen pregnancy and job-seekers: what do we overestimate? | Crime, teen pregnancy and job-seekers: what do we overestimate? |
| (2 days later) | |
| Most of us are living in a fantasy world when it comes to key social issues, and part of the problem is our inability to grasp statistics, according to new research. A survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Statistical Society and King's College London has attempted to measure just how divorced we are from reality when it comes to topics such as crime, teen pregnancy and benefit fraud. | Most of us are living in a fantasy world when it comes to key social issues, and part of the problem is our inability to grasp statistics, according to new research. A survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Statistical Society and King's College London has attempted to measure just how divorced we are from reality when it comes to topics such as crime, teen pregnancy and benefit fraud. |
| Some 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 were asked questions that were then compared with the facts. In some cases, the gap between perceptions and reality was glaring. For example, respondents thought teenage pregnancy rates were 25 times higher than official estimates, and believed 15% of girls under 16 get pregnant annually, when the real figure is closer to 0.6%. | Some 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 were asked questions that were then compared with the facts. In some cases, the gap between perceptions and reality was glaring. For example, respondents thought teenage pregnancy rates were 25 times higher than official estimates, and believed 15% of girls under 16 get pregnant annually, when the real figure is closer to 0.6%. |
| When asked about the survey, Bobby Duffy, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI said | When asked about the survey, Bobby Duffy, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI said |
| People are wildly wrong when we ask them about many aspects of life in Britain. It's perfectly understandable that we don't having a precise image of who lives here and the extent of key social issues – but the scale of our collective error is startling. | People are wildly wrong when we ask them about many aspects of life in Britain. It's perfectly understandable that we don't having a precise image of who lives here and the extent of key social issues – but the scale of our collective error is startling. |
| Our understanding of the basic make-up of Britain is also inconsistent with the facts. On average, respondents thought that 24% of the population was Muslim (it's just 5% in England and Wales), while they believed 34% was Christian (an underestimate, as official numbers say it's 59%). | Our understanding of the basic make-up of Britain is also inconsistent with the facts. On average, respondents thought that 24% of the population was Muslim (it's just 5% in England and Wales), while they believed 34% was Christian (an underestimate, as official numbers say it's 59%). |
| Overestimates about British Muslims may be related to overestimates about immigration and ethnicity. The public thinks immigrants make up one in three of the population, while the census shows this is actually 13%. Respondents put the proportion of black and Asian Brits at a similarly unrealistic 30%, while the real figure is 11%. | Overestimates about British Muslims may be related to overestimates about immigration and ethnicity. The public thinks immigrants make up one in three of the population, while the census shows this is actually 13%. Respondents put the proportion of black and Asian Brits at a similarly unrealistic 30%, while the real figure is 11%. |
| The "scroungers versus strivers" debate seems to have also influenced our perceptions about the benefits bill. Those polled thought that £24 out of every £100 spent on benefits is claimed fraudulently, while authorities put this at £0.70 per £100 (and as we've reported in the past, official error plays a huge role in benefit overpayments). | The "scroungers versus strivers" debate seems to have also influenced our perceptions about the benefits bill. Those polled thought that £24 out of every £100 spent on benefits is claimed fraudulently, while authorities put this at £0.70 per £100 (and as we've reported in the past, official error plays a huge role in benefit overpayments). |
| Part of the issue is that statisticians don't use words in the same way the general public does. Duffy says: "When people estimate that £24 in every £100 is claimed fraudulently, they're not just thinking about outright fraud – some also say they are thinking of people who haven't contributed any tax or who've had more children to claim more benefits." | Part of the issue is that statisticians don't use words in the same way the general public does. Duffy says: "When people estimate that £24 in every £100 is claimed fraudulently, they're not just thinking about outright fraud – some also say they are thinking of people who haven't contributed any tax or who've had more children to claim more benefits." |
| Though many may overestimate crime, foreign aid and the age of the UK population, sometimes perceptions go the other way. When it comes to voting, 65% of us took to the polls in the last general election, but survey respondents thought the figure was just 43%. | Though many may overestimate crime, foreign aid and the age of the UK population, sometimes perceptions go the other way. When it comes to voting, 65% of us took to the polls in the last general election, but survey respondents thought the figure was just 43%. |
| Misperceptions matter because they show what we are most concerned about – but misperceptions also have the tendency to make us feel more concerned. Duffy explains: | Misperceptions matter because they show what we are most concerned about – but misperceptions also have the tendency to make us feel more concerned. Duffy explains: |
| Our exaggerated estimates on crime, immigration, benefit fraud are at least as much a result as a cause of our concerns. Academics call this 'emotional innumeracy': we're making a point about what's worrying us, whether we know it or not. | Our exaggerated estimates on crime, immigration, benefit fraud are at least as much a result as a cause of our concerns. Academics call this 'emotional innumeracy': we're making a point about what's worrying us, whether we know it or not. |
| Why do we get it wrong? | Why do we get it wrong? |
| The Royal Statistical Society cites three main reasons why this happens. These are (in, we assume, no particular order): | The Royal Statistical Society cites three main reasons why this happens. These are (in, we assume, no particular order): |
| 1. Political spin Politicians tend to twist numbers for their own ends rather than discussing statistics even-handedly 2. Tabloid journalism The researchers argue "the media has to try and genuinely illuminate issues, rather than use statistics to sensationalise" 3. Data literacy If statistics were taught differently in UK schools, the public would have a better ability to critically assess evidence for themselves. | 1. Political spin Politicians tend to twist numbers for their own ends rather than discussing statistics even-handedly 2. Tabloid journalism The researchers argue "the media has to try and genuinely illuminate issues, rather than use statistics to sensationalise" 3. Data literacy If statistics were taught differently in UK schools, the public would have a better ability to critically assess evidence for themselves. |
| The last point is hard to deny, although readers (some of whom may not be able to grasp numbers) have to rely on their statistics from this survey about just how badly that educational reform is needed | The last point is hard to deny, although readers (some of whom may not be able to grasp numbers) have to rely on their statistics from this survey about just how badly that educational reform is needed |
| And there's another difficult irony: if the public is unable to understand statistics properly and the media is incapable of reporting them accurately, should we even be using their press release on "the perils of perception" to write this article? | And there's another difficult irony: if the public is unable to understand statistics properly and the media is incapable of reporting them accurately, should we even be using their press release on "the perils of perception" to write this article? |
| Perhaps statistical negativity is a tendency of politicians and journalists alike. | Perhaps statistical negativity is a tendency of politicians and journalists alike. |
| Download the data | Download the data |
| • DATA: download the full spreadsheet | • DATA: download the full spreadsheet |
| Can you do more with this data? | Can you do more with this data? |
| • Email us at data@guardian.co.uk • Follow us on Twitter • Like us on Facebook • Post a comment below | • Email us at data@guardian.co.uk • Follow us on Twitter • Like us on Facebook • Post a comment below |