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Military chiefs told to prepare for new threats to UK security Military chiefs told to prepare for new threats to UK security
(2 months later)
Slowly, very slowly, military planners are putting their minds to the kind of conflict in which British soldiers will be asked to intervene in future.Slowly, very slowly, military planners are putting their minds to the kind of conflict in which British soldiers will be asked to intervene in future.
A war-weary British public might not care to contemplate such prospects after a decade of Iraq and Afghanistan. But if the country is going to have an army, albeit a much smaller one, it should be relevant, properly equipped for the kind of conflict it is likely to be engaged in, and trained.A war-weary British public might not care to contemplate such prospects after a decade of Iraq and Afghanistan. But if the country is going to have an army, albeit a much smaller one, it should be relevant, properly equipped for the kind of conflict it is likely to be engaged in, and trained.
Significantly, much of the latest annual conference on land warfare run by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) was devoted to the possibility of future conflicts triggered not by conventional disputes over territory but by the shortage of such basic resources as food and water, as well as insurgencies triggered by political or religious extremism.Significantly, much of the latest annual conference on land warfare run by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) was devoted to the possibility of future conflicts triggered not by conventional disputes over territory but by the shortage of such basic resources as food and water, as well as insurgencies triggered by political or religious extremism.
3bn people will be living in drought-striken areas where 25% of the population will be undernourished, Rear Admiral Paul Bennett, director of the Development Concepts & Doctrine Centre at the Ministry of Defence (a kind of in-house thinktank) told the conference.3bn people will be living in drought-striken areas where 25% of the population will be undernourished, Rear Admiral Paul Bennett, director of the Development Concepts & Doctrine Centre at the Ministry of Defence (a kind of in-house thinktank) told the conference.
Tensions will be compounded by poor governance and criminality, and globalisation will erode the power of the state, he warned. "Stress and conflict are intimate bedfellows", he said.Tensions will be compounded by poor governance and criminality, and globalisation will erode the power of the state, he warned. "Stress and conflict are intimate bedfellows", he said.
Sir Simon Gass, "Director General Political" at the Foreign Office, spoke about "horizon scanning".Sir Simon Gass, "Director General Political" at the Foreign Office, spoke about "horizon scanning".
The trouble is ministers do not do this. They are interested in the short term.

Judging from what participants say, weekly meetings of the National Security Council, chaired by the prime minister, do not look beyond immediate problems even though when David Cameron set it up he suggested a main point of it should be to consider Britain's future role in the world.		The trouble is ministers do not do this. They are interested in the short term.

Judging from what participants say, weekly meetings of the National Security Council, chaired by the prime minister, do not look beyond immediate problems even though when David Cameron set it up he suggested a main point of it should be to consider Britain's future role in the world.
Government officials pay lip service to the notion of cross-department cooperation in Whitehall, notably between the MoD, the Foreign Office, and Department for International Development (Dfid), that would be needed to head off, or at least confront, future conflicts, as effectively as possible.Government officials pay lip service to the notion of cross-department cooperation in Whitehall, notably between the MoD, the Foreign Office, and Department for International Development (Dfid), that would be needed to head off, or at least confront, future conflicts, as effectively as possible.
Yet ministers and their senior officials still jealously guard their own fiefdoms.Yet ministers and their senior officials still jealously guard their own fiefdoms.
But evidence that a holistic approach and lateral-thinking is beginning to emerge — from the Rusi conference and also from a recent interview with the Guardian by Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, appointed foreign secretary William Hague's "special representative for climate change".But evidence that a holistic approach and lateral-thinking is beginning to emerge — from the Rusi conference and also from a recent interview with the Guardian by Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, appointed foreign secretary William Hague's "special representative for climate change".
Climate change posed as grave a threat to the UK's security and economic resilience as terrorism and cyber attacks, he said.Climate change posed as grave a threat to the UK's security and economic resilience as terrorism and cyber attacks, he said.
Climate change was "one of the greatest risks we face in the 21st century" because it presented a global threat. "By virtue of our interdependencies around the world, it will affect all of us," he said.Climate change was "one of the greatest risks we face in the 21st century" because it presented a global threat. "By virtue of our interdependencies around the world, it will affect all of us," he said.
Meanwhile, the three branches of the armed forces — the navy, army, and air force- still jealously guard their budgets.Meanwhile, the three branches of the armed forces — the navy, army, and air force- still jealously guard their budgets.
The budgets of the security and intelligence agencies are entirely separate from the defence budget yet their activities and roles are becoming increasingly intertwined.The budgets of the security and intelligence agencies are entirely separate from the defence budget yet their activities and roles are becoming increasingly intertwined.
The head of the army, General Sir Peter Wall, touched on all this in a carefully-crafted speech to the Rusi conference. Iraq and Afghanistan, he said, had had a "beneficial" function of drawing the army closer to the navy and air force and to "key agencies", referring (presumably) to MI6 and GCHQ.The head of the army, General Sir Peter Wall, touched on all this in a carefully-crafted speech to the Rusi conference. Iraq and Afghanistan, he said, had had a "beneficial" function of drawing the army closer to the navy and air force and to "key agencies", referring (presumably) to MI6 and GCHQ.
Wall referred to the prospect of "enduring confrontation with extremism". He added: "In extremis, if we do need to intervene in support of partners, we've got to understand the context, locally and regionally, we've got to know the key people — political and military, and we've got to be familiar with the culture and language."Wall referred to the prospect of "enduring confrontation with extremism". He added: "In extremis, if we do need to intervene in support of partners, we've got to understand the context, locally and regionally, we've got to know the key people — political and military, and we've got to be familiar with the culture and language."
What is needed now is to decide what weapons Britain's armed forces needs in face of these future conflicts. Drones, inevitably.What is needed now is to decide what weapons Britain's armed forces needs in face of these future conflicts. Drones, inevitably.
But four submarines carrying Trident ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads?But four submarines carrying Trident ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads?
The army also has to be capable of playing a role in heavy "warfighting" if necessary, Wall said.The army also has to be capable of playing a role in heavy "warfighting" if necessary, Wall said.
But ministers must explain why all the items in the MoD's locker, including Trident and two large aircraft carriers, will be needed.But ministers must explain why all the items in the MoD's locker, including Trident and two large aircraft carriers, will be needed.
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