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| Kevin Rudd takes on the case of the missing prime minister | Kevin Rudd takes on the case of the missing prime minister |
| (3 months later) | |
| Many odd things happened in national politics back in June 2010, but perhaps the oddest thing that happened at that time was the disappearance of the prime minister. | Many odd things happened in national politics back in June 2010, but perhaps the oddest thing that happened at that time was the disappearance of the prime minister. |
| I don't mean the disappearance of Kevin Rudd, the person who had occupied the office since his election and swearing-in in late 2007 – although that certainly happened. I mean the position seemed to disappear. This wasn't something Labor intended, it was entirely accidental, but nonetheless the sequence of events combined to create the sense that Labor had lost not only Rudd but one of the great structural advantages of professional politics: incumbency. | I don't mean the disappearance of Kevin Rudd, the person who had occupied the office since his election and swearing-in in late 2007 – although that certainly happened. I mean the position seemed to disappear. This wasn't something Labor intended, it was entirely accidental, but nonetheless the sequence of events combined to create the sense that Labor had lost not only Rudd but one of the great structural advantages of professional politics: incumbency. |
| Labor went into the 2010 election campaign only weeks after the leadership change. Julia Gillard was yet to establish her identity in the job, and her connection with the public. She was at war in some respects with the Rudd era, and with Tony Abbott – and Rudd hovered, implacably, "wronged", like Banquo's ghost. The campaign felt like a scrap between two opposition leaders, not a prime minister and a challenger. This atmosphere altered the dynamics of the campaign – it levelled the playing field between Gillard and Abbott. | Labor went into the 2010 election campaign only weeks after the leadership change. Julia Gillard was yet to establish her identity in the job, and her connection with the public. She was at war in some respects with the Rudd era, and with Tony Abbott – and Rudd hovered, implacably, "wronged", like Banquo's ghost. The campaign felt like a scrap between two opposition leaders, not a prime minister and a challenger. This atmosphere altered the dynamics of the campaign – it levelled the playing field between Gillard and Abbott. |
| Labor's failure to secure a majority at the conclusion of the 2010 poll then compounded the general sense of contingency. Australia had not seen a hung parliament at the federal level since the second world war. Prime ministers had not governed by consensus in the federal House of Representatives for several generations. This was a step change for the country, and the discomfiting sense of prime ministerial absence lingered, fuelled by questioning of Gillard's legitimacy. It didn't seem to matter that it was actually a substantial period of governing, of policymaking, of practical and tangible achievement. This is the era of presidential politics. Leaders are front and centre. | Labor's failure to secure a majority at the conclusion of the 2010 poll then compounded the general sense of contingency. Australia had not seen a hung parliament at the federal level since the second world war. Prime ministers had not governed by consensus in the federal House of Representatives for several generations. This was a step change for the country, and the discomfiting sense of prime ministerial absence lingered, fuelled by questioning of Gillard's legitimacy. It didn't seem to matter that it was actually a substantial period of governing, of policymaking, of practical and tangible achievement. This is the era of presidential politics. Leaders are front and centre. |
| Rudd's return to the prime ministership over the past few days has altered that confidence-sapping dynamic in a couple of ways. First of all, the person elected prime minister by the voters is back in the job. Rudd has been prime minister in the conventional way Australians understand that role. Part of the fillip is the simple restoration of a convention. Love him or loathe him – the voters have their prime minister back. | Rudd's return to the prime ministership over the past few days has altered that confidence-sapping dynamic in a couple of ways. First of all, the person elected prime minister by the voters is back in the job. Rudd has been prime minister in the conventional way Australians understand that role. Part of the fillip is the simple restoration of a convention. Love him or loathe him – the voters have their prime minister back. |
| But they've got a bit more than that. Rudd has swung back into Canberra like an emperor returning to Rome. Officials have been summonsed. Advisers recalled. Edicts issued. | But they've got a bit more than that. Rudd has swung back into Canberra like an emperor returning to Rome. Officials have been summonsed. Advisers recalled. Edicts issued. |
| This is not a person ground down by the transactions of minority government. Rudd is projecting as if absolutely nothing has changed since he was bundled out the door three years ago, as if institutional Canberra is there, ready to rock and roll (as he's so fond of saying). Never mind that it has changed, never mind the reality that the public service in Canberra is in full wind-down mode given the proximity of the election campaign and the caretaker period, never mind the chaos behind the scenes as the provisional government tries to work out which way is up. | This is not a person ground down by the transactions of minority government. Rudd is projecting as if absolutely nothing has changed since he was bundled out the door three years ago, as if institutional Canberra is there, ready to rock and roll (as he's so fond of saying). Never mind that it has changed, never mind the reality that the public service in Canberra is in full wind-down mode given the proximity of the election campaign and the caretaker period, never mind the chaos behind the scenes as the provisional government tries to work out which way is up. |
| Rudd is reclaiming Canberra lost. | Rudd is reclaiming Canberra lost. |
| It's as much public posture as personal aspiration. His burning sense of entitlement to the position is on full display, even though he's been at pains to reassure colleagues he'll listen to them more than he did the first time around. This public hubris is actually a significant plus for Labor at this moment in time. If it can be sustained over this difficult transition (and that is, of course, the biggest if), it will change the psychology of the election contest. | It's as much public posture as personal aspiration. His burning sense of entitlement to the position is on full display, even though he's been at pains to reassure colleagues he'll listen to them more than he did the first time around. This public hubris is actually a significant plus for Labor at this moment in time. If it can be sustained over this difficult transition (and that is, of course, the biggest if), it will change the psychology of the election contest. |
| It already has in a couple of ways. Rudd has revoked Gillard's 14 September election date. This has forced the opposition to switch gears. Abbott is now calling every hour or so for Labor to name the date. It's what Abbott would do in such circumstance, but the transaction nonetheless establishes a simple dynamic: there's an incumbent prime minister who can control the election timing and an opposition leader who can't. | It already has in a couple of ways. Rudd has revoked Gillard's 14 September election date. This has forced the opposition to switch gears. Abbott is now calling every hour or so for Labor to name the date. It's what Abbott would do in such circumstance, but the transaction nonetheless establishes a simple dynamic: there's an incumbent prime minister who can control the election timing and an opposition leader who can't. |
| It establishes business as usual. Then there are gestures of status. On Tuesday morning an Instagram was circulated of Rudd talking to President Obama on Air Force One. World leaders talking to world leaders. (As they do, when they are in charge – although Obama was decent enough to call Gillard as well.) Photographers were invited in to record Rudd at the top of the cabinet table. (In charge. In the cabinet room.) | It establishes business as usual. Then there are gestures of status. On Tuesday morning an Instagram was circulated of Rudd talking to President Obama on Air Force One. World leaders talking to world leaders. (As they do, when they are in charge – although Obama was decent enough to call Gillard as well.) Photographers were invited in to record Rudd at the top of the cabinet table. (In charge. In the cabinet room.) |
| In Canberra on Tuesday morning we were even treated to a Rudd early power walk through the fog in a John Howard-style tracksuit. Maximum cringe value perhaps, but maximum symbolism as well. | In Canberra on Tuesday morning we were even treated to a Rudd early power walk through the fog in a John Howard-style tracksuit. Maximum cringe value perhaps, but maximum symbolism as well. |
| Then there's the issue of debates. Rudd has been challenging Abbott, every time he's in front of a microphone, to debate him on policy issues. Normally that's the tactic of a challenger, not the incumbent, but again it's an effort by Rudd to control the parameters of the conversation. Prime ministers used to decide what the country was talking about – not opposition leaders. | Then there's the issue of debates. Rudd has been challenging Abbott, every time he's in front of a microphone, to debate him on policy issues. Normally that's the tactic of a challenger, not the incumbent, but again it's an effort by Rudd to control the parameters of the conversation. Prime ministers used to decide what the country was talking about – not opposition leaders. |
| It might all come to nothing. | It might all come to nothing. |
| Rudd may find himself standing on exactly the same shifting sand as his predecessor. Styling is one thing, substance is another. Will the parliament be recalled? What happens then to the sense that Rudd can direct Labor's agenda in the ways of old, when he evidently cannot? This is a public posture for a campaign, not anything deeper or more durable than that. | Rudd may find himself standing on exactly the same shifting sand as his predecessor. Styling is one thing, substance is another. Will the parliament be recalled? What happens then to the sense that Rudd can direct Labor's agenda in the ways of old, when he evidently cannot? This is a public posture for a campaign, not anything deeper or more durable than that. |
| And voters may well have already made up their mind that incumbency for Rudd will be a very short-run thing indeed. | And voters may well have already made up their mind that incumbency for Rudd will be a very short-run thing indeed. |
| But it's interesting. | But it's interesting. |
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