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Mitch McConnell's challenger Grimes has her work cut out in Kentucky Mitch McConnell's challenger Grimes has her work cut out in Kentucky
(3 months later)
The Democratic senatorial campaign committee has found its woman in Kentucky. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes announced on Monday that she will challenge longtime senator and current minority leader, Republican Mitch McConnell, in the 2014 senate election.The Democratic senatorial campaign committee has found its woman in Kentucky. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes announced on Monday that she will challenge longtime senator and current minority leader, Republican Mitch McConnell, in the 2014 senate election.
Grimes is a strong politician with high name recognition. Her father is a former state Democratic chairman, while she easily won a tough primary and general election in 2011.Grimes is a strong politician with high name recognition. Her father is a former state Democratic chairman, while she easily won a tough primary and general election in 2011.
McConnell is as vulnerable as a Republican can be in a state that went for Mitt Romney by over 20pt in 2012. A poll by Public Policy Polling on behalf of a Democratic-aligned organization in May 2013 (pdf) found his approval rating to be only 44%. The same survey showed Grimes tied with McConnell at 45%, though earlier polling gave McConnell a small edge.McConnell is as vulnerable as a Republican can be in a state that went for Mitt Romney by over 20pt in 2012. A poll by Public Policy Polling on behalf of a Democratic-aligned organization in May 2013 (pdf) found his approval rating to be only 44%. The same survey showed Grimes tied with McConnell at 45%, though earlier polling gave McConnell a small edge.
Still, these numbers likely overestimate how strong a Grimes candidacy would be. McConnell is a notoriously hard-nosed campaigner who uses everything in his arsenal to defeat his challengers. McConnell also has history on his side.Still, these numbers likely overestimate how strong a Grimes candidacy would be. McConnell is a notoriously hard-nosed campaigner who uses everything in his arsenal to defeat his challengers. McConnell also has history on his side.
Before Grimes announced, I did the historical math on how candidates in a similar position to McConnell have done. Since 1982, when the new wave of polarization took hold, there have been eight midterm elections. These make for some daunting numbers for Grimes, on three counts:Before Grimes announced, I did the historical math on how candidates in a similar position to McConnell have done. Since 1982, when the new wave of polarization took hold, there have been eight midterm elections. These make for some daunting numbers for Grimes, on three counts:
1). McConnell is running when the other party controls the White House. The opposition party successfully defended 18 of 19 seats in 1982; 11 of 12 in 1986; 17 of 17 in 1990; 13 of 13 in 1994; 13 of 16 in 1998; 11 of 14 in 2002; 16 for 16 in 2006; and 18 for 18 in 2010. That's just eight out of 125 races, or 6%, when a seat has flipped to the White House party in a midterm. Most of those were when the president had an approval rating well into the 60s. Obama's approval rating right now is in the mid 40s.1). McConnell is running when the other party controls the White House. The opposition party successfully defended 18 of 19 seats in 1982; 11 of 12 in 1986; 17 of 17 in 1990; 13 of 13 in 1994; 13 of 16 in 1998; 11 of 14 in 2002; 16 for 16 in 2006; and 18 for 18 in 2010. That's just eight out of 125 races, or 6%, when a seat has flipped to the White House party in a midterm. Most of those were when the president had an approval rating well into the 60s. Obama's approval rating right now is in the mid 40s.
2). McConnell is running in a state where his party did better in the presidential election than it did nationwide: 74 out of 77 candidates won in this same scenario in a midterm.2). McConnell is running in a state where his party did better in the presidential election than it did nationwide: 74 out of 77 candidates won in this same scenario in a midterm.
3). McConnell is running with everything said above and is an incumbent: 62 out of 63 candidates have won, given this situation, over the past 30 years. The only one who did not was Lauch Faircloth, who was a one-term incumbent. He was much further to the right than McConnell, who fits ideologically with his state fairly well.3). McConnell is running with everything said above and is an incumbent: 62 out of 63 candidates have won, given this situation, over the past 30 years. The only one who did not was Lauch Faircloth, who was a one-term incumbent. He was much further to the right than McConnell, who fits ideologically with his state fairly well.
Faircloth, of course, also went up against a president who had an approval rating of about 65%. If the president's approval is below 60%, then it's very bad news for the incumbent party. None of the 57 Republican or Democratic senatorial candidates who ran in a red or blue state respectively (as measured in the prior presidential election) lost when the other party controlled the White House and the incumbent president had an approval rating below 60%.Faircloth, of course, also went up against a president who had an approval rating of about 65%. If the president's approval is below 60%, then it's very bad news for the incumbent party. None of the 57 Republican or Democratic senatorial candidates who ran in a red or blue state respectively (as measured in the prior presidential election) lost when the other party controlled the White House and the incumbent president had an approval rating below 60%.
None of this is to say Grimes can't win. McConnell's approval is at only 44%. It's just that looking at this data makes you wonder very hard whether McConnell can lose.None of this is to say Grimes can't win. McConnell's approval is at only 44%. It's just that looking at this data makes you wonder very hard whether McConnell can lose.
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