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| Polish prime minister's popularity dips unexpectedly | Polish prime minister's popularity dips unexpectedly |
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| Poland is no longer an island – economically speaking, of course. After a long period of solitary prosperity in a crisis-ridden Europe, a sudden slowdown has seized the country, with a spectacular impact on the political climate. For the first time in years the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party is now well ahead of prime minister Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (PO). | Poland is no longer an island – economically speaking, of course. After a long period of solitary prosperity in a crisis-ridden Europe, a sudden slowdown has seized the country, with a spectacular impact on the political climate. For the first time in years the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party is now well ahead of prime minister Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (PO). |
| But the PiS, still led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has not really gained much ground. Rather, after six years in power, the current majority is looking distinctly weary. "We have carried out difficult reforms, for example on pensions, but there is the wear and tear of power and an accumulation of expectations in some quarters," admits Rafal Grupinski, PO leader in parliament. "Part of the middle classes have withdrawn their support." | But the PiS, still led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has not really gained much ground. Rather, after six years in power, the current majority is looking distinctly weary. "We have carried out difficult reforms, for example on pensions, but there is the wear and tear of power and an accumulation of expectations in some quarters," admits Rafal Grupinski, PO leader in parliament. "Part of the middle classes have withdrawn their support." |
| But the media has focused its attention on Tusk. For years he embodied unabashed pragmatism, thanks to which he was re-elected in 2011. Rather than relying on big ideas or a grand vision for the future he adapts to circumstances, public opinion and his adversaries. | But the media has focused its attention on Tusk. For years he embodied unabashed pragmatism, thanks to which he was re-elected in 2011. Rather than relying on big ideas or a grand vision for the future he adapts to circumstances, public opinion and his adversaries. |
| Tusk came to power in 2007, after two years during which the Kaczynski brothers brought Poland close to a nervous breakdown. He promptly broke with the nationalist right's emotionally charged projects, making "hot running water" in every home his top priority. But popular enthusiasm has cooled. Unemployment has risen to 13.3%, growth has stalled, falling to an estimated 1.3% this year, down from 4.5% in 2011. Tusk has opted to sidestep this setback, shifting attention to party affairs. The choice of a new leader, originally set for early 2014, will be made this summer, to prepare for local, European and general elections. For the first time the PO's 40,000 members will vote by post or electronically. | Tusk came to power in 2007, after two years during which the Kaczynski brothers brought Poland close to a nervous breakdown. He promptly broke with the nationalist right's emotionally charged projects, making "hot running water" in every home his top priority. But popular enthusiasm has cooled. Unemployment has risen to 13.3%, growth has stalled, falling to an estimated 1.3% this year, down from 4.5% in 2011. Tusk has opted to sidestep this setback, shifting attention to party affairs. The choice of a new leader, originally set for early 2014, will be made this summer, to prepare for local, European and general elections. For the first time the PO's 40,000 members will vote by post or electronically. |
| The change of schedule will oblige Tusk's rivals to show their hand. Jaroslaw Gowin, for one, stands out ideologically. He lost his job as justice minister in April after months of tension. At the end of May he launched an assault on the party line, advocating a "return to its [conservative, free-market] roots". He criticised recent tax increases, excessive state intervention and the emphasis on societal issues such as in vitro fertilisation and same-sex civil union. Another contender, Grzegorz Schetyna, PO deputy leader, endorses Tusk's line but wants a more collegial style of leadership. "Schetyna lacks Tusk's charm and talent," says Pawel Piskorski, former PO secretary-general and now Democratic party (SD) leader. | The change of schedule will oblige Tusk's rivals to show their hand. Jaroslaw Gowin, for one, stands out ideologically. He lost his job as justice minister in April after months of tension. At the end of May he launched an assault on the party line, advocating a "return to its [conservative, free-market] roots". He criticised recent tax increases, excessive state intervention and the emphasis on societal issues such as in vitro fertilisation and same-sex civil union. Another contender, Grzegorz Schetyna, PO deputy leader, endorses Tusk's line but wants a more collegial style of leadership. "Schetyna lacks Tusk's charm and talent," says Pawel Piskorski, former PO secretary-general and now Democratic party (SD) leader. |
| Tusk has always succeeded in stifling internal criticism – in his government and party – confirming the impression that he can manage on his own. Indeed the 2011 victory was largely of his making. But now his solitude is a handicap. There are no heavyweights in the cabinet apart from foreign minister Radek Sikorski, thought to be unorthodox. Tusk has lost touch with the electorate. "For the past six years the PO has concentrated on concrete and roads," says Jaroslaw Makowski, of the Civic Institute, which is otherwise close to the majority. "But a healthy society means education. It means emphasising what we have in common, apart from just the land we share." | Tusk has always succeeded in stifling internal criticism – in his government and party – confirming the impression that he can manage on his own. Indeed the 2011 victory was largely of his making. But now his solitude is a handicap. There are no heavyweights in the cabinet apart from foreign minister Radek Sikorski, thought to be unorthodox. Tusk has lost touch with the electorate. "For the past six years the PO has concentrated on concrete and roads," says Jaroslaw Makowski, of the Civic Institute, which is otherwise close to the majority. "But a healthy society means education. It means emphasising what we have in common, apart from just the land we share." |
| But all is not lost for Tusk. His rivals in the PO are weak. Approval of the next European budget (for 2014-20) will open the way for more structural funds, crucial over the past 10 years. Parts of the Polish left, which is still in disarray, could provide new allies for a coalition reaching beyond the Farmers' (PSL) party, the current partner in government. "In the political arena, where only marketing matters, either you give up being leftwing to take power, or you give up power to stay leftwing," says Slawomir Sierakowski, leader of the Political Criticism (KP) movement, which is trying to rebuild the Polish left. | But all is not lost for Tusk. His rivals in the PO are weak. Approval of the next European budget (for 2014-20) will open the way for more structural funds, crucial over the past 10 years. Parts of the Polish left, which is still in disarray, could provide new allies for a coalition reaching beyond the Farmers' (PSL) party, the current partner in government. "In the political arena, where only marketing matters, either you give up being leftwing to take power, or you give up power to stay leftwing," says Slawomir Sierakowski, leader of the Political Criticism (KP) movement, which is trying to rebuild the Polish left. |
| Lastly, the polls may be misleading. PiS voters are traditionally more active and united than their PO counterparts. With its ongoing obsession with the tragic air crash at Smolensk in 2010, the PiS has cut itself off from much of the electorate. "It has two years before the election to broaden its horizons," says European MP Adam Bielan, a former PiS card-holder. Kaczynski is already busy canvassing, but he is both the embodiment of his cause and its main handicap. | Lastly, the polls may be misleading. PiS voters are traditionally more active and united than their PO counterparts. With its ongoing obsession with the tragic air crash at Smolensk in 2010, the PiS has cut itself off from much of the electorate. "It has two years before the election to broaden its horizons," says European MP Adam Bielan, a former PiS card-holder. Kaczynski is already busy canvassing, but he is both the embodiment of his cause and its main handicap. |
| This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates material from Le Monde | This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates material from Le Monde |
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