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Iran: the west needs to forge a more nuanced relationship with the new regime Iran: the west needs to forge a more nuanced relationship with the new regime
(3 months later)
The election of Hassan Rouhani, a 64-year-old cleric, to the presidency of the Islamic republic of Iran leaves many people around the world with more questions than answers.The election of Hassan Rouhani, a 64-year-old cleric, to the presidency of the Islamic republic of Iran leaves many people around the world with more questions than answers.
Many of those questions stem from the reaction to the 2009 election when the authenticity of the result – a victory for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – was cast into doubt. The speed with which the announcement came on the night of the election confirmed to many that wide-scale irregularities had occurred. The resultant "green revolution" sparked huge protests across the country for six months. When the fatal shooting of protester Neda Agha-Soltan by an armed militiaman was uploaded on to YouTube the narrative of the last election had been written. Bloody, contentious and most probably illegitimate.Many of those questions stem from the reaction to the 2009 election when the authenticity of the result – a victory for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – was cast into doubt. The speed with which the announcement came on the night of the election confirmed to many that wide-scale irregularities had occurred. The resultant "green revolution" sparked huge protests across the country for six months. When the fatal shooting of protester Neda Agha-Soltan by an armed militiaman was uploaded on to YouTube the narrative of the last election had been written. Bloody, contentious and most probably illegitimate.
So it is no wonder that questions were raised about last week's election. And yet the fact is that the Islamic republic, although not democratic, has since its inception in 1979 had a representative form of government. It started with a referendum, it operates under a constitution with regular elections to a legislative assembly and the post of the president. Even during the eight-year war with Iraq no elections were ever missed. Thus, the Iranian state has been able to claim its legitimacy through forms of popular mandate. To say that Iran isn't a regular dictatorship isn't to suggest it is democratic. By democratic standards, these elections fell short, since they prevented many candidates from standing.So it is no wonder that questions were raised about last week's election. And yet the fact is that the Islamic republic, although not democratic, has since its inception in 1979 had a representative form of government. It started with a referendum, it operates under a constitution with regular elections to a legislative assembly and the post of the president. Even during the eight-year war with Iraq no elections were ever missed. Thus, the Iranian state has been able to claim its legitimacy through forms of popular mandate. To say that Iran isn't a regular dictatorship isn't to suggest it is democratic. By democratic standards, these elections fell short, since they prevented many candidates from standing.
The heavy hand of the supreme leader was felt during the pre-election vetting procedures that smacked of selection rather than election. The committee that is directly under the supreme leader disqualified both of the reformists' principal candidates: the pragmatic and wily ex-president Rafsanjani, and the more radical Rahim Mashai, President Ahmadinejad's deputy and anointed successor .The heavy hand of the supreme leader was felt during the pre-election vetting procedures that smacked of selection rather than election. The committee that is directly under the supreme leader disqualified both of the reformists' principal candidates: the pragmatic and wily ex-president Rafsanjani, and the more radical Rahim Mashai, President Ahmadinejad's deputy and anointed successor .
The field was left to eight candidates who seemed, at first, to be barely indistinguishable from one another – six conservative and two moderate reformists. The opposition forces based outside the country were delighted and most observers expected a mass boycott. But then something strange happened and it electrified the campaign. A series of live TV debates sparked real life into the contest and a real contrast emerged not only between reformists and fundamentalists but among the fundamentalists candidates themselves.The field was left to eight candidates who seemed, at first, to be barely indistinguishable from one another – six conservative and two moderate reformists. The opposition forces based outside the country were delighted and most observers expected a mass boycott. But then something strange happened and it electrified the campaign. A series of live TV debates sparked real life into the contest and a real contrast emerged not only between reformists and fundamentalists but among the fundamentalists candidates themselves.
Normally taboo subjects were discussed openly. Ahmadinejad's economic mismanagement has delivered an official 30% inflation rate, a series of diplomatic own goals, an impasse with the international community and backbreaking sanctions. The TV debates delivered a double blow to the conservative bloc, exposing them as dull and divided, and helped consolidate the reformist vote behind one candidate. The conservatives were seen as fractured and fractious while both reformist candidates shone and Mohammad Reza Aref, one of the reformist candidates, stood down in favour of Dr Rouhani.Normally taboo subjects were discussed openly. Ahmadinejad's economic mismanagement has delivered an official 30% inflation rate, a series of diplomatic own goals, an impasse with the international community and backbreaking sanctions. The TV debates delivered a double blow to the conservative bloc, exposing them as dull and divided, and helped consolidate the reformist vote behind one candidate. The conservatives were seen as fractured and fractious while both reformist candidates shone and Mohammad Reza Aref, one of the reformist candidates, stood down in favour of Dr Rouhani.
Iran's 50 million eligible voters were suddenly offered a real contest and responded with a massive turn-out. Rouhani polled 18 million votes, three times as many as his nearest rival, leaving him with an unassailable mandate.Iran's 50 million eligible voters were suddenly offered a real contest and responded with a massive turn-out. Rouhani polled 18 million votes, three times as many as his nearest rival, leaving him with an unassailable mandate.
The new president faces monumental challenges at home and abroad. The economy is in free fall and the sanctions are having a devastating effect on national morale as well as its health and wealth. The complications of having to work with a parliament dominated by his enemies and a supreme leader who still holds the major levers of power are daunting.The new president faces monumental challenges at home and abroad. The economy is in free fall and the sanctions are having a devastating effect on national morale as well as its health and wealth. The complications of having to work with a parliament dominated by his enemies and a supreme leader who still holds the major levers of power are daunting.
But Rouhani also rides a massive wave of national support and a feelgood atmosphere, helped along in no small measure by Iran's recent qualification for the World Cup. If his first press conference was anything to go by he has more good news to impart, committing himself to liberalisation of the press, lifting the restrictions on trade unions and a determination to find a compromise over the nuclear issue. There are even suggestions that he will push hard for the release of Mousavi, Karoubi and other leaders of the Green movement.But Rouhani also rides a massive wave of national support and a feelgood atmosphere, helped along in no small measure by Iran's recent qualification for the World Cup. If his first press conference was anything to go by he has more good news to impart, committing himself to liberalisation of the press, lifting the restrictions on trade unions and a determination to find a compromise over the nuclear issue. There are even suggestions that he will push hard for the release of Mousavi, Karoubi and other leaders of the Green movement.
To the Bush/Blair administrations, Iran was easy to paint in the colours of good and of evil. What we now need is a more nuanced, sophisticated and informed engagement if we want to help the new Iranian president help himself and his people and save the world from another futile and deadly road to war.To the Bush/Blair administrations, Iran was easy to paint in the colours of good and of evil. What we now need is a more nuanced, sophisticated and informed engagement if we want to help the new Iranian president help himself and his people and save the world from another futile and deadly road to war.
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