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Taliban's unworldly moderates in Doha struggle for coherence in peace talks Taliban's unworldly moderates in Doha struggle for coherence in peace talks
(4 months later)
The Taliban team who have been waiting in Doha for more than a year to formally open their political office have long been portrayed by supporters of a negotiated settlement to the Afghan war as the good guys.The Taliban team who have been waiting in Doha for more than a year to formally open their political office have long been portrayed by supporters of a negotiated settlement to the Afghan war as the good guys.
According to diplomats and analysts who have met them, they are nothing like the religious fanatics and bloodstained insurgents wreaking mayhem inside Afghanistan.According to diplomats and analysts who have met them, they are nothing like the religious fanatics and bloodstained insurgents wreaking mayhem inside Afghanistan.
On the contrary, they are said to have remarkably reasonable views.On the contrary, they are said to have remarkably reasonable views.
They tell their visitors they know they cannot conceivably win back power militarily. Besides, they appreciate that Afghanistan needs something better than the impoverished dictatorship they presided over in the 1990s.They tell their visitors they know they cannot conceivably win back power militarily. Besides, they appreciate that Afghanistan needs something better than the impoverished dictatorship they presided over in the 1990s.
Back then they claimed a divine right to rule over Afghanistan. Today democracy is fine by them.Back then they claimed a divine right to rule over Afghanistan. Today democracy is fine by them.
They are thought to speak with authority – they set up shop in the Gulf in the name of Mullah Omar, the movement's supreme leader. Last year a team led by Anatol Lieven, a British academic, reported the Taliban would even accept a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan, based on talks with four "senior Taliban interlocutors".They are thought to speak with authority – they set up shop in the Gulf in the name of Mullah Omar, the movement's supreme leader. Last year a team led by Anatol Lieven, a British academic, reported the Taliban would even accept a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan, based on talks with four "senior Taliban interlocutors".
That astonishing claim, which seems to contradict the Taliban's basic justification for their bloody insurgency, was echoed this week by a top lieutenant of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai. After being intimately involved in trying to get peace talks off the ground in the last few years, he told the Guardian on Monday that negotiations through these men might lead to successful elections in Afghanistan next April.That astonishing claim, which seems to contradict the Taliban's basic justification for their bloody insurgency, was echoed this week by a top lieutenant of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai. After being intimately involved in trying to get peace talks off the ground in the last few years, he told the Guardian on Monday that negotiations through these men might lead to successful elections in Afghanistan next April.
The Taliban, it is hoped, will not only refrain from attacking the process, they may also tacitly back a presidential candidate. "Sleeper" Taliban candidates may even run for the provincial council elections on the same day.The Taliban, it is hoped, will not only refrain from attacking the process, they may also tacitly back a presidential candidate. "Sleeper" Taliban candidates may even run for the provincial council elections on the same day.
And yet, in their first moments on the world stage, these pragmatically inclined negotiators chose to enrage the Afghan government and cause acute embarrassment to the US and Qatar, which had been trying to facilitate talks.And yet, in their first moments on the world stage, these pragmatically inclined negotiators chose to enrage the Afghan government and cause acute embarrassment to the US and Qatar, which had been trying to facilitate talks.
Karzai had only given his consent to the office opening after receiving a written assurance from Qatar that the Taliban would only be allowed to use it to talk to the Afghan high peace council.Karzai had only given his consent to the office opening after receiving a written assurance from Qatar that the Taliban would only be allowed to use it to talk to the Afghan high peace council.
But the Doha Taliban sparked a crisis by declaring themselves the office of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", raising their old flag and refusing to say they would talk to the Karzai government, which they dismissed as a "puppet government".But the Doha Taliban sparked a crisis by declaring themselves the office of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", raising their old flag and refusing to say they would talk to the Karzai government, which they dismissed as a "puppet government".
"These folks are supposed to be the moderates and most willing to talk and do business," said Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Woodrow Wilson Centre. "But they took full opportunity to stick it in the eye to Karzai and the Afghan government.""These folks are supposed to be the moderates and most willing to talk and do business," said Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Woodrow Wilson Centre. "But they took full opportunity to stick it in the eye to Karzai and the Afghan government."
Wahid Monawar, a former Afghan diplomat, has met the Doha group six times in the last 16 months, initially as part of a private initiative to secure the release of Bowe Bergdahl, a US soldier held by the Taliban for four years. He said that although the Doha group were in some ways forward-thinking, they were also often unworldly and simplistic. "They say they want to change the Afghan constitution, but when you ask which bit it takes them two months to answer," he said. "They need help, they need coaching by someone who can help them articulate their issues."Wahid Monawar, a former Afghan diplomat, has met the Doha group six times in the last 16 months, initially as part of a private initiative to secure the release of Bowe Bergdahl, a US soldier held by the Taliban for four years. He said that although the Doha group were in some ways forward-thinking, they were also often unworldly and simplistic. "They say they want to change the Afghan constitution, but when you ask which bit it takes them two months to answer," he said. "They need help, they need coaching by someone who can help them articulate their issues."
He recalls a conversation where one of the group was warming to the idea of standing in provincial elections in Kandahar: "When I asked him what his political platform would be he said he wanted to build a market. That was it."He recalls a conversation where one of the group was warming to the idea of standing in provincial elections in Kandahar: "When I asked him what his political platform would be he said he wanted to build a market. That was it."
Supporters of a political settlement say merely talking to the Doha group would strengthen their position within the wider Taliban movement, which is numerically dominated by rank-and-file fighters who may see any peace deal as a betrayal.Supporters of a political settlement say merely talking to the Doha group would strengthen their position within the wider Taliban movement, which is numerically dominated by rank-and-file fighters who may see any peace deal as a betrayal.
Opposition from hardliners, and the need to sustain the support of foot soldiers, is likely to be the biggest brake on negotiations.Opposition from hardliners, and the need to sustain the support of foot soldiers, is likely to be the biggest brake on negotiations.
The senior Afghan official said the government side must also give more serious thought to what it wants from the process. He asked what would happen if the Taliban negotiators demanded to know the fate of their leader, Mullah Omar, in any reconciliation deal.The senior Afghan official said the government side must also give more serious thought to what it wants from the process. He asked what would happen if the Taliban negotiators demanded to know the fate of their leader, Mullah Omar, in any reconciliation deal.
"Do you send him to Bagram or Guantánamo, or do you make him chief justice?" he said. "Our side will not have an answer because we have never sorted out what the end picture looks like.""Do you send him to Bagram or Guantánamo, or do you make him chief justice?" he said. "Our side will not have an answer because we have never sorted out what the end picture looks like."
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