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Cooling the Arctic is imperative Cooling the Arctic is imperative
(4 months later)
I read with dismay the announcement from the Met Office meeting that the UK could be in the middle of a cycle of wet summers which could last 10-20 years (Rain, rain won't go away, 19 June). My dismay is because the Met Office has failed to acknowledge the likely strong influence of the loss of Arctic sea ice on northern hemisphere weather through rapid warming of the Arctic and disruption of jet stream behaviour. I read with dismay the announcement from the Met Office meeting that the UK could be in the middle of a cycle of wet summers which could last 10-20 years (Rain, rain won't go away, 19 June). My dismay is because the Met Office has failed to acknowledge the likely strong influence of the loss of Arctic sea ice on northern hemisphere weather through rapid warming of the Arctic and disruption of jet stream behaviour. 
As the chairman of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, I presented this case to the environmental audit committee's inquiry in early 2012. At first the Met Office rejected our case on the grounds that its models predicted that the sea ice would last for decades. But then we had confirmation of the thinning ice from Cryosat-2 and we had the record sea ice minimum in September 2012. The implications are that the Arctic will continue warming, but even more rapidly. This will further decrease the temperature gradient between the tropics and the Arctic – the gradient which drives the jet stream. So the jet stream will meander even more and get stuck with even greater regularity, bringing weird weather across much of the northern hemisphere, including long spells of wet or dry weather.As the chairman of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, I presented this case to the environmental audit committee's inquiry in early 2012. At first the Met Office rejected our case on the grounds that its models predicted that the sea ice would last for decades. But then we had confirmation of the thinning ice from Cryosat-2 and we had the record sea ice minimum in September 2012. The implications are that the Arctic will continue warming, but even more rapidly. This will further decrease the temperature gradient between the tropics and the Arctic – the gradient which drives the jet stream. So the jet stream will meander even more and get stuck with even greater regularity, bringing weird weather across much of the northern hemisphere, including long spells of wet or dry weather.
Hence, we are not in a cycle of wet summers at all, but in a downward spiral of ever-longer spells of "stuck" weather. How and where the weather will be stuck will not be easily predicted by climate models. Cooling the Arctic is now going to be extremely difficult – yet not impossible with a determined and international effort. It has to be done, in order to save the sea ice and protect the future of agriculture in northern climes.
John Nissen
Chair, Arctic Methane Emergency Group		Hence, we are not in a cycle of wet summers at all, but in a downward spiral of ever-longer spells of "stuck" weather. How and where the weather will be stuck will not be easily predicted by climate models. Cooling the Arctic is now going to be extremely difficult – yet not impossible with a determined and international effort. It has to be done, in order to save the sea ice and protect the future of agriculture in northern climes.
John Nissen
Chair, Arctic Methane Emergency Group
• The incredible advance in space science and recent super-computer modelling informs us that the significant new factor in the chaotic history of Earth's weather lies in the probability that chucking the highest volume of widely measured man-made carbon deposits and particulates into the air and oceans is the prime cause of recorded global warming. Modern denialists, for whatever vested or threatened reason, underplay this overriding scientific enlightenment. They still rely on reading the tea-leaf messages in the bottom of the cup.
Dr John Comerford
Horsham, West Sussex		• The incredible advance in space science and recent super-computer modelling informs us that the significant new factor in the chaotic history of Earth's weather lies in the probability that chucking the highest volume of widely measured man-made carbon deposits and particulates into the air and oceans is the prime cause of recorded global warming. Modern denialists, for whatever vested or threatened reason, underplay this overriding scientific enlightenment. They still rely on reading the tea-leaf messages in the bottom of the cup.
Dr John Comerford
Horsham, West Sussex
• Richard Mabey's exhortations for us to embrace our increasingly miserable weather (Comment, 19 June) make a lot of sense, except for those of us who rely upon the weather for things like food – in other words, everyone. The spectre of food shortage has been diminished by modern global trade, at least for wealthy countries, but with the UK now importing wheat as a result of last year's weather and completely reliant on imports for most other foods, it's worth reflecting on the wisdom of surrendering control of our food security. There's much that's wrong with contemporary agriculture, but the issues go much deeper than monoculture farmers "pleading for support". The weather isn't just an incidental backdrop to real life, and we could well come to regret our insouciant neglect of agriculture and the weather-dependent realities of food production in favour of dogmatic free-trade ideologies.
Chris Smaje
Frome, Somerset		• Richard Mabey's exhortations for us to embrace our increasingly miserable weather (Comment, 19 June) make a lot of sense, except for those of us who rely upon the weather for things like food – in other words, everyone. The spectre of food shortage has been diminished by modern global trade, at least for wealthy countries, but with the UK now importing wheat as a result of last year's weather and completely reliant on imports for most other foods, it's worth reflecting on the wisdom of surrendering control of our food security. There's much that's wrong with contemporary agriculture, but the issues go much deeper than monoculture farmers "pleading for support". The weather isn't just an incidental backdrop to real life, and we could well come to regret our insouciant neglect of agriculture and the weather-dependent realities of food production in favour of dogmatic free-trade ideologies.
Chris Smaje
Frome, Somerset
• In 1816 there was no summer in most of Europe, crops failed and folk sought solace in America. Meanwhile, in Germany, there were no oats for the horses. It's not beyond belief that this – as some rightly claim – led to the development of the bicycle.
Nick Reeves
Executive director, Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management		• In 1816 there was no summer in most of Europe, crops failed and folk sought solace in America. Meanwhile, in Germany, there were no oats for the horses. It's not beyond belief that this – as some rightly claim – led to the development of the bicycle.
Nick Reeves
Executive director, Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management
• I wonder where the myth started that before this 10-year period we had brilliant summers? "Britannia is a rainy region, the sun continually obscured by dark menacing clouds." Tacitus: Life of Agricola – 74 AD.
Ivan Ruggeri
London		• I wonder where the myth started that before this 10-year period we had brilliant summers? "Britannia is a rainy region, the sun continually obscured by dark menacing clouds." Tacitus: Life of Agricola – 74 AD.
Ivan Ruggeri
London
• May I remind all those complaining, and writing, about the weather in England that there are two other countries in Britain. Scotland, has had excellent weather since the beginning of the second last week in May.
Paul Gunnion
Kirkintilloch, East Dunbartonshire		• May I remind all those complaining, and writing, about the weather in England that there are two other countries in Britain. Scotland, has had excellent weather since the beginning of the second last week in May.
Paul Gunnion
Kirkintilloch, East Dunbartonshire
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