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| Julia Gillard feels the edge of the Labor leadership gender divide | Julia Gillard feels the edge of the Labor leadership gender divide |
| (4 months later) | |
| There is plenty of conjecture about Labor's poor standing in the polls. Tony Abbott is not overwhelmingly popular, so the current state of Australian public opinion reflects a repudiation of Labor. Specific policies, from the carbon tax to media reform, have gone down like lead balloons; minority government is never a pretty affair; the presence of Kevin Rudd is a lightning rod for an increasingly fearful caucus and irresistible political theatre for a press gallery under tremendous competitive pressure. | There is plenty of conjecture about Labor's poor standing in the polls. Tony Abbott is not overwhelmingly popular, so the current state of Australian public opinion reflects a repudiation of Labor. Specific policies, from the carbon tax to media reform, have gone down like lead balloons; minority government is never a pretty affair; the presence of Kevin Rudd is a lightning rod for an increasingly fearful caucus and irresistible political theatre for a press gallery under tremendous competitive pressure. |
| But is there something more? Is there a "Gillard-specific" element to Labor's poor showing in the electorate? More pointedly, is there a "gendered" component to what we're seeing in the voting intention data? | But is there something more? Is there a "Gillard-specific" element to Labor's poor showing in the electorate? More pointedly, is there a "gendered" component to what we're seeing in the voting intention data? |
| I think the answer is a resounding yes. Gillard has been subject to criticism that she simply wouldn't be getting if she wasn't a woman. Recent Australian political history also suggests that when it ends badly for Labor female leaders, it ends really badly. Female Labor leaders aren't just defeated, it's almost as if the electorate goes after them with a special kind of vengeance, in ways that conventional media polls just don't pick up in the vote intention questions. I'm recalling the spectacular losses for female Labor state premiers such as Joan Kirner (Victoria), Kristina Kenneally (New South Wales), and Anna Bligh (Queensland). | I think the answer is a resounding yes. Gillard has been subject to criticism that she simply wouldn't be getting if she wasn't a woman. Recent Australian political history also suggests that when it ends badly for Labor female leaders, it ends really badly. Female Labor leaders aren't just defeated, it's almost as if the electorate goes after them with a special kind of vengeance, in ways that conventional media polls just don't pick up in the vote intention questions. I'm recalling the spectacular losses for female Labor state premiers such as Joan Kirner (Victoria), Kristina Kenneally (New South Wales), and Anna Bligh (Queensland). |
| We don't have a lot of data in the public domain to support these impressions, but let's take a quick look at what we do have. | We don't have a lot of data in the public domain to support these impressions, but let's take a quick look at what we do have. |
| Data from the Australian Election Studies (AES) provides perhaps the best source on the role of gender in Australian electoral politics over time. For numerous decades, men were more likely to support Labor than women were – recall the not-so-distant image of the Labor party as a (male) worker's party, and the Coalition embodying middle-class respectability. | Data from the Australian Election Studies (AES) provides perhaps the best source on the role of gender in Australian electoral politics over time. For numerous decades, men were more likely to support Labor than women were – recall the not-so-distant image of the Labor party as a (male) worker's party, and the Coalition embodying middle-class respectability. |
| Between 2001 and 2007 there was literally no discernible gender gap in the AES data; then the 2010 AES survey showed an apparent gender gap of "-7" points (the percentage of men reporting voting Labor minus the corresponding percentage among women). The tick-up in the gender gap surely has something to do with Gillard being the Labor leader (and prime minister) at the time of the 2010 election. | Between 2001 and 2007 there was literally no discernible gender gap in the AES data; then the 2010 AES survey showed an apparent gender gap of "-7" points (the percentage of men reporting voting Labor minus the corresponding percentage among women). The tick-up in the gender gap surely has something to do with Gillard being the Labor leader (and prime minister) at the time of the 2010 election. |
| The Nielsen poll released this week found a 10-point gender gap, with Labor polling 34% (first preferences) among women but only 24% among men and more than a majority of all men (52%) giving their first preference to the Coalition. That is statistically indistinguishable from the seven-point gap found by the 2010 AES. Newspolls between late 2011 and March 2013 found gender gaps ranging from three to five points, much smaller than the Nielsen result. Morgan polls show a gender gap more in line with the Newspoll results. | The Nielsen poll released this week found a 10-point gender gap, with Labor polling 34% (first preferences) among women but only 24% among men and more than a majority of all men (52%) giving their first preference to the Coalition. That is statistically indistinguishable from the seven-point gap found by the 2010 AES. Newspolls between late 2011 and March 2013 found gender gaps ranging from three to five points, much smaller than the Nielsen result. Morgan polls show a gender gap more in line with the Newspoll results. |
| Indeed, a Morgan poll fielded 14-16 June found a 4.5-point gender gap (30.5% first preferences for Labor among men; 35% among women). A Morgan poll from the previous weekend found a three-point gender gap (29.5% first preferences for Labor among men; 32.5% among women). Across the two Morgan polls Labor's first preference vote share improved one point among men, and 2.5 points among women. | Indeed, a Morgan poll fielded 14-16 June found a 4.5-point gender gap (30.5% first preferences for Labor among men; 35% among women). A Morgan poll from the previous weekend found a three-point gender gap (29.5% first preferences for Labor among men; 32.5% among women). Across the two Morgan polls Labor's first preference vote share improved one point among men, and 2.5 points among women. |
| Morgan reported this result under the attention-grabbing headline "Female support rises strongly for the government," (take that, Nielsen!) but the evidence for that conclusion is rather slim. The 1.5-point inter-week difference in the male-female differences isn't that large relative to the bumps and wiggles we see week to weeks in the internals of polls such as these, even with the relatively large sample sizes in Morgan's multi-mode polls. My rough calculations suggest that the 1.5-point "difference in the differences" has a margin of error of over four points. | Morgan reported this result under the attention-grabbing headline "Female support rises strongly for the government," (take that, Nielsen!) but the evidence for that conclusion is rather slim. The 1.5-point inter-week difference in the male-female differences isn't that large relative to the bumps and wiggles we see week to weeks in the internals of polls such as these, even with the relatively large sample sizes in Morgan's multi-mode polls. My rough calculations suggest that the 1.5-point "difference in the differences" has a margin of error of over four points. |
| The Nielsen result is on the high side. Nielsen is a very serious, reputable outfit. But like so many things we see in survey data, we have to consider the possibility that this is a "one-off" result. Corroboration from the other pollsters would be helpful. We'll be looking carefully at the so-called "internals" of upcoming polls. | The Nielsen result is on the high side. Nielsen is a very serious, reputable outfit. But like so many things we see in survey data, we have to consider the possibility that this is a "one-off" result. Corroboration from the other pollsters would be helpful. We'll be looking carefully at the so-called "internals" of upcoming polls. |
| The past week certainly provided a convenient political narrative around which to frame media discussion of the big gender gap in the Nielsen data. There was that appalling menu from the Coalition fundraising dinner in Brisbane, the ridiculous question from Howard Sattler on Perth radio. But I thought the week was also about Gillard trying to put some oxygen into gender issues herself, speaking as much to the Labor caucus as anyone, reminding them that she delivers a solid bloc of female votes. | The past week certainly provided a convenient political narrative around which to frame media discussion of the big gender gap in the Nielsen data. There was that appalling menu from the Coalition fundraising dinner in Brisbane, the ridiculous question from Howard Sattler on Perth radio. But I thought the week was also about Gillard trying to put some oxygen into gender issues herself, speaking as much to the Labor caucus as anyone, reminding them that she delivers a solid bloc of female votes. |
| Which is of course half-true. But does anyone really think any of the 34% of women currently supporting Labor would flip to Abbott if Labor dumped Gillard for Rudd? | Which is of course half-true. But does anyone really think any of the 34% of women currently supporting Labor would flip to Abbott if Labor dumped Gillard for Rudd? |
| I don't doubt there is a gender gap out there right now. I doubt it is as big as 10 points, but something in the three- to seven-point range wouldn't surprise me. Again, keep in mind that the last serious academic study of the electorate after the 2010 election found a seven-point gap. Let's see what the next round of polling brings. | I don't doubt there is a gender gap out there right now. I doubt it is as big as 10 points, but something in the three- to seven-point range wouldn't surprise me. Again, keep in mind that the last serious academic study of the electorate after the 2010 election found a seven-point gap. Let's see what the next round of polling brings. |
| In the meantime, bear this in mind: Labor's problem is not so much the gender gap as much as it is the fact that it is polling in the low to mid-30s, even among women. We wouldn't be talking as much about the gender gap if there were an extra 10-12 points of Labor vote share in these poll results. | In the meantime, bear this in mind: Labor's problem is not so much the gender gap as much as it is the fact that it is polling in the low to mid-30s, even among women. We wouldn't be talking as much about the gender gap if there were an extra 10-12 points of Labor vote share in these poll results. |
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