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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/reality-check/2013/jun/13/uk-men-deserts-csj-report
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Does the UK have "men deserts"? | Does the UK have "men deserts"? |
| (4 months later) | |
| This week, we can expect the publication of a report titled "Fractured Families: why stability matters" - and, according to the press release from the Center for Social Justice (CSJ), we can also expect to find out "that some of the poorest parts of the country have become "men deserts"". | This week, we can expect the publication of a report titled "Fractured Families: why stability matters" - and, according to the press release from the Center for Social Justice (CSJ), we can also expect to find out "that some of the poorest parts of the country have become "men deserts"". |
| If the release is anything to go by, the tone of the report is likely to be heavy; "family break-up" is deemed a "tragedy" which is "devastating children" so the "Prime Minister [is] urged to get a grip". | If the release is anything to go by, the tone of the report is likely to be heavy; "family break-up" is deemed a "tragedy" which is "devastating children" so the "Prime Minister [is] urged to get a grip". |
| Until the report is released, it's difficult to test the data used to substantiate the following claims: | Until the report is released, it's difficult to test the data used to substantiate the following claims: |
| • "Family breakdown is an urgent public health issue" • There is (according to a warning by the CSJ's Director) a ""tsunami" of family breakdown battering the country" • "Father absence is linked to higher rates of teenage crime, pregnancy and disadvantage" | • "Family breakdown is an urgent public health issue" • There is (according to a warning by the CSJ's Director) a ""tsunami" of family breakdown battering the country" • "Father absence is linked to higher rates of teenage crime, pregnancy and disadvantage" |
| In the meantime, here are five reasons why the forthcoming publication may lack accuracy. | In the meantime, here are five reasons why the forthcoming publication may lack accuracy. |
| Reality check 1: | Reality check 1: |
| Lone-parent families aren't all the result of "family breakdown". Some families are headed by one parent because of death or forced separation, in other cases children are born after a relationship between the parents has already ended. The implication that these families have degenerated may be considered unfair. | Lone-parent families aren't all the result of "family breakdown". Some families are headed by one parent because of death or forced separation, in other cases children are born after a relationship between the parents has already ended. The implication that these families have degenerated may be considered unfair. |
| Reality check 2: | Reality check 2: |
| It's true that there were more lone-parents with dependent children 15 years ago, but the total number of all families with dependent children has also increased in that time - that includes married, civil partnership, cohabiting and lone parent families. | It's true that there were more lone-parents with dependent children 15 years ago, but the total number of all families with dependent children has also increased in that time - that includes married, civil partnership, cohabiting and lone parent families. |
| In 1996, lone parents with dependent children made up 22% of all families with dependent children. By 2012, that proportion had risen to 25.7% - not exactly the "tsunami" of single parents that the report warns about. | In 1996, lone parents with dependent children made up 22% of all families with dependent children. By 2012, that proportion had risen to 25.7% - not exactly the "tsunami" of single parents that the report warns about. |
| Reality check 3: | Reality check 3: |
| Lone-parent families aren't all headed by women. In fact, around one in ten of them are headed by men. The Guardian's Datablog is publishing some detailed statistics on these oft neglected families here. | Lone-parent families aren't all headed by women. In fact, around one in ten of them are headed by men. The Guardian's Datablog is publishing some detailed statistics on these oft neglected families here. |
| Reality check 4: | Reality check 4: |
| The published version of the report also promises ""league tables" showing the parts of the country... where fatherless and lone parent households are most prevalent." | The published version of the report also promises ""league tables" showing the parts of the country... where fatherless and lone parent households are most prevalent." |
| The press release already shares a few of these - seeing as it tops the "league", lets take Riverside in Liverpool as an example, where a staggering 75% of all households are apparently headed by single mothers. The first thing to note is that the report only considers Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs) - geographic areas containing, on average, 1,614 people. | The press release already shares a few of these - seeing as it tops the "league", lets take Riverside in Liverpool as an example, where a staggering 75% of all households are apparently headed by single mothers. The first thing to note is that the report only considers Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs) - geographic areas containing, on average, 1,614 people. |
| There are 34,753 of these areas in England and Wales - of which the report will focus on only the 236 "where more than 50 per cent of households with dependent children are headed by a lone mother". That focus represents less than 1% of the population of England and Wales. That may call some to question how reliable its inferences are. | There are 34,753 of these areas in England and Wales - of which the report will focus on only the 236 "where more than 50 per cent of households with dependent children are headed by a lone mother". That focus represents less than 1% of the population of England and Wales. That may call some to question how reliable its inferences are. |
| In fact, some have already claimed that these statistics are inflated. Bristol247 took a number from the press release - 67% of families in Lawrence Hill were headed by single-parents - and found that if you included all households in the area, that proportion dropped to just 12%. | In fact, some have already claimed that these statistics are inflated. Bristol247 took a number from the press release - 67% of families in Lawrence Hill were headed by single-parents - and found that if you included all households in the area, that proportion dropped to just 12%. |
| Reality check 5: | Reality check 5: |
| If "father absence" really is linked to some of the 'social ills' of crime and pregnancy cited in the press release, it's likely that there are a range of other socio-economic factors that are equally, if not more, important. | If "father absence" really is linked to some of the 'social ills' of crime and pregnancy cited in the press release, it's likely that there are a range of other socio-economic factors that are equally, if not more, important. |
| Only the lack of male role models is considered a cause for concern. Which leaves us wondering: if "single-mothers" are incapable of providing well-rounded gender exemplaries, shouldn't we also be concerned about the 176,000 families with dependent children in the UK that are headed by lone fathers? | Only the lack of male role models is considered a cause for concern. Which leaves us wondering: if "single-mothers" are incapable of providing well-rounded gender exemplaries, shouldn't we also be concerned about the 176,000 families with dependent children in the UK that are headed by lone fathers? |
| Conclusion | Conclusion |
| The authors of the report can anticipate criticism from groups such as Gingerbread who support single parents. Responding to the press release the Chief Executive of Gingerbread Fiona Weir said "This report paints a melodramatic picture which is far from the reality of modern British family life", adding that "the vast majority of children in single parent households grow up perfectly well". | The authors of the report can anticipate criticism from groups such as Gingerbread who support single parents. Responding to the press release the Chief Executive of Gingerbread Fiona Weir said "This report paints a melodramatic picture which is far from the reality of modern British family life", adding that "the vast majority of children in single parent households grow up perfectly well". |
| Update | Update |
| The Center for Social Justice published their report in full on Thursday afternoon. As @tablecooper1 highlighted below, the report reiterates the assumption in the press release that families headed by lone-mothers are all fatherless. We're still looking into some of its claims - not least this one: | The Center for Social Justice published their report in full on Thursday afternoon. As @tablecooper1 highlighted below, the report reiterates the assumption in the press release that families headed by lone-mothers are all fatherless. We're still looking into some of its claims - not least this one: |
| Family breakdown is currently estimated to cost the country £46 billion a year – a figure that is set to rise to nearly £49 billion by the end of the Parliament – more than the Government spends on the whole Defence budget. | Family breakdown is currently estimated to cost the country £46 billion a year – a figure that is set to rise to nearly £49 billion by the end of the Parliament – more than the Government spends on the whole Defence budget. |
| We would love to hear what you think so please continue posting your comments below or else tweet to us @GuardianData or @MonaChalabi | We would love to hear what you think so please continue posting your comments below or else tweet to us @GuardianData or @MonaChalabi |
| Data | Data |
| • Download the full spreadsheet here | • Download the full spreadsheet here |
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