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North and South Korea: keep talking North and South Korea: keep talking
(4 months later)
Once again, a delegate from each side shook hands and bowed low over the concrete threshold dividing North from South Korea in the "truce village" of Panmunjom. This is where the 1953 armistice was signed that North Korea recently declared null and void. Once again, the Red Cross telephone line has been buzzing. Once again, North Korea watchers are saying it is significant that they are talking at all. But for two days starting on Tuesday in Seoul that is what they will do.Once again, a delegate from each side shook hands and bowed low over the concrete threshold dividing North from South Korea in the "truce village" of Panmunjom. This is where the 1953 armistice was signed that North Korea recently declared null and void. Once again, the Red Cross telephone line has been buzzing. Once again, North Korea watchers are saying it is significant that they are talking at all. But for two days starting on Tuesday in Seoul that is what they will do.
What led to the about-turn by Pyongyang after months of sabre rattling, missile firing and nuclear brinkmanship? In one word: China. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping followed up oblique warnings to North Korea with explicit ones. In April, Mr Xi said: "No one should be allowed to throw a region … into chaos for selfish gain." In May, he told the personal envoy of Kim Jong-un in the Great Hall of the People that denuclearisation and peace on the Korean peninsula were not only what the people wanted but "the trend of the times".What led to the about-turn by Pyongyang after months of sabre rattling, missile firing and nuclear brinkmanship? In one word: China. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping followed up oblique warnings to North Korea with explicit ones. In April, Mr Xi said: "No one should be allowed to throw a region … into chaos for selfish gain." In May, he told the personal envoy of Kim Jong-un in the Great Hall of the People that denuclearisation and peace on the Korean peninsula were not only what the people wanted but "the trend of the times".
Wide gaps remain between China and the US over the resumption of the six-party talks, not least the US and South Korean precondition of a pledge from North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme, something that Kim Jong-un has vowed never to do. But he must at least be aware by now of the full diplomatic cost of his actions, after the weekend meeting between Barack Obama and Mr Xi. The two men reached an "important consensus" on the Korean issue (Mr Xi's words, not Mr Obama's). Meanwhile Tom Donilon, Mr Obama's national security adviser, praised China's efforts in sending Pyongyang an unambiguous signal. As Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution rightly said, North Korea's actions have enabled the most candid and realistic discussion between Washington and Beijing – ever. That is some achievement.Wide gaps remain between China and the US over the resumption of the six-party talks, not least the US and South Korean precondition of a pledge from North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme, something that Kim Jong-un has vowed never to do. But he must at least be aware by now of the full diplomatic cost of his actions, after the weekend meeting between Barack Obama and Mr Xi. The two men reached an "important consensus" on the Korean issue (Mr Xi's words, not Mr Obama's). Meanwhile Tom Donilon, Mr Obama's national security adviser, praised China's efforts in sending Pyongyang an unambiguous signal. As Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution rightly said, North Korea's actions have enabled the most candid and realistic discussion between Washington and Beijing – ever. That is some achievement.
Now that both sides have returned to it, it is important not to overload the negotiating table with unrealistically high expectations. North Korea is pushing for a joint commemoration of past inter-Korean statements, by which they mean that they want the South to stick to the deals it made on reconciliation and economic aid in the past. What they don't want is for another Lee Myung-bak (President Park Geun-hye's conservative predecessor) to come along and link large-scale government aid to progress on denuclearisation. President Park, for her part, does not want to reward bad behaviour.Now that both sides have returned to it, it is important not to overload the negotiating table with unrealistically high expectations. North Korea is pushing for a joint commemoration of past inter-Korean statements, by which they mean that they want the South to stick to the deals it made on reconciliation and economic aid in the past. What they don't want is for another Lee Myung-bak (President Park Geun-hye's conservative predecessor) to come along and link large-scale government aid to progress on denuclearisation. President Park, for her part, does not want to reward bad behaviour.
There are intermediary steps both sides could take to lower the temperature, such as the resumption of Kaesong, a factory park that was the last symbol of inter-Korean co-operation before Pyongyang pulled its workers out. To be successful, this week's talks have got to be just the first steps of a marathon run.There are intermediary steps both sides could take to lower the temperature, such as the resumption of Kaesong, a factory park that was the last symbol of inter-Korean co-operation before Pyongyang pulled its workers out. To be successful, this week's talks have got to be just the first steps of a marathon run.
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